The Fed just announced the leaders of the new task forces that Kevin Warsh spoke about in his first press conference: https://t.co/spHxllBOMS
It's an impressive list, including Raghu Rajan, Jeremy Stein, Chad Jones, Kevin Murphy, Greg Mankiw and Tom Sargent(!)
Sargent Institute @pku_phbs and @hkbaptistu are organizing the 10th PHBS Macro Workshop on June 24-25 in Shenzhen, China. We have a fantastic program this year and please register via the QR codes or 🔗: https://t.co/CjvLSzgbwJ if you are interested in participation.
I can't wait for meeting and hearing from our fantastic speakers, including Thomas Sargent (NYU), @klaus_adam , @SakiBigio , Chao Gu (Missouri), Albert Marcet (CREI and BSE), Feng Dong (Tsinghua), @kuhnmo, Xuewen Liu (HKU), Zhen Huo (Yale) and @PooyaMolavi.
I can't wait for meeting and hearing from our fantastic speakers, including Thomas Sargent (NYU), @klaus_adam , @SakiBigio , Chao Gu (Missouri), Albert Marcet (CREI and BSE), Feng Dong (Tsinghua), @kuhnmo, Xuewen Liu (HKU), Zhen Huo (Yale) and @PooyaMolavi.
Sargent Institute @pku_phbs and @hkbaptistu are organizing the 10th PHBS Macro Workshop on June 23-24 in Shenzhen, China. We have a fantastic program this year and please register via 🔗: https://t.co/CjvLSzgbwJ if you are interested in participation.
🚗🔋 Many think Beijing masterfully planned China's EV takeover. Fengming Lu (@ANUBellSchool ) and I spent 3 years and 60+ interviews finding out what actually happened in our latest article @TheChinaJournal. A thread 🧵
I’m delighted to be a keynote speaker at the 3rd Workshop of the East and South-East Asian Macroeconomic Society at @hkust, Hong Kong, on 5–6 Sept 2026.
Submissions from all areas of macroeconomics are welcome. Deadline: 26 June 2026
Super interesting!
"Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations: New Evidence from the Past Seven Decades" by David Thesmar and Emil Verner.
"We construct a new long-run series of subjective expected equity returns from an independent equity analysis firm, spanning 1956-2024. These expected returns are strongly positively correlated with the earnings-price ratio, respond negatively to past returns, and predict future returns. These patterns contrast with subjective expectations of individual investors and professional forecasters, which are weakly or negatively correlated with our new measure. Disagreement between sophisticated and individual investors is associated with higher trading volume. Our findings are consistent with a model of heterogeneous beliefs, where naive investors extrapolate past returns, rather than past dividends, while sophisticated investors are close to rational."
https://t.co/45mXvkvuAA
Why do richer economies have more very large firms? This paper shows that the upper tail of the firm size distribution thickens as economies grow. A model of idea search explains why, showing how growth itself can produce rising concentration.
https://t.co/ocOxbeV3Ww
Thrilled to share a project I've been refining: a complete, open-source repository on "Deep Learning for Solving and Estimating Dynamic Models in Economics and Finance."
I've cleaned up the materials from my PhD classes and summer schools into one coherent resource. 🧵 1/6
Really cool!
"Getting Started with Claude Code: A Researcher’s Setup Guide," Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham joined Markus’ Academy for a mini-series on Claude Code for Applied Economists.
"You can do more, think about more topics, and learn new things. The distance between research idea to result is a lot smaller. I do not find the raw ideas generated by AI to be that compelling, but execution of ideas is much faster, and can be done more efficiently. The tedious stuff—data cleaning, debugging, reformatting, scraping—gets dramatically faster."
https://t.co/KoD8Wt59LW
Proxies for investor disagreement are surprisingly uncorrelated. Developing a frictionless model that generates overpricing from a new composite disagreement, from Christian L. Goulding, @camharvey, and Hrvoje Kurtović https://t.co/y0Medqyxn4
🚨🚨Application open: PKU-Zurich PhD Summer School on 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 & 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞
📍Beijing, July 6–10
Coherent lectures by @ben_moll@comp_simon Weinan E, Kubler, S Maliar, Payne, Gopalakrishna & me. Apply by April 6 https://t.co/Vymrbe1VaB