dino

[dino @dino__j]

Overall impression, originality, power of personality win Eurovision. Post-tv footage it was so clear that DARA had all of these in spades. It always seems so obvious post-contest. Stop other-ing jurors!

[dino @dino__j]

Some #eurovision betting thoughts for future me

- Not sure about it as a hard and fast rule, but once again my best betting happened from rehearals onward.

- The Eurovision outright market remains one of the least sharp around, be more confident

[dino @dino__j]

I may yap some more in here but overall a great result. Eurovision is by far my favourite betting week of the year, I think solving the puzzle and watching it all come together is far more exciting than the actual outcome and I can't wait to do it all again.

[dino @dino__j]

Bulgaria were available at a good price with 526 televotes left on the table at this point. Anyone that had done the maths and had a bit composure was printing money. I managed some on at 1.2 with them and Australia left to announce.

[dino @dino__j]

@PeterZaventem I guess everything doesn't always have to make immediate sense. If nothing else, like all Eurovision outcomes, 🇷🇴 this year is just another data point for evaluating future entries.

[dino @dino__j]

@ChrisWh08370492 @escbetting @chuckbasspoker @VVeedla @PeterZaventem @MLT2022 @paucazorla @enthughesed @ge_aldrig_upp @NikosV34 I think your openness with your opinions and uncertainty has been great. Encyclopaedic knowledge of the past 20 contests is great, but betting acumen and mindset trumps all! Maybe a little less anchoring to past contests can be useful too?

[dino @dino__j]

bad:
🇫🇷 - Cringing all week at how much I had on based on no more than speculation, lack of alternatives, hope of a grande glow-up, despite track record and lack of a song.
🇬🇷 - 6s value midweek? Yeah cool

Only really lost money on these, but both avoidable in hindsight

[dino @dino__j]

Good calls:
🇫🇮 - but did find myself wavering as contest got nearer. maybe the market is right??
🇧🇬 - always keen, backed immediately from rehearsal footage. it just had "it"
🇮🇱 - widely underestimated again!
🇮🇹 - charming, USP, clear class. another sanremo downgrade though.

[dino @dino__j]

@escbetting @ChrisWh08370492 @ge_aldrig_upp @Barwineewindas I enjoyed building this this year. Not sure totally how useful it was considering the point of a model is to eliminate bias and this leans entirely on my own input, but looking forward to working on it a bit more next year.

[dino @dino__j]

@escbetting @ChrisWh08370492 @ge_aldrig_upp @Barwineewindas The problem is that tv/jury power is unknowable from any data you could put into a model.

Best use case is something you can input your own beliefs into that takes into account knowables like voting dynamics, basic RO effect etc. Then you can use that as a guide.

[dino @dino__j]

so close to greatness...

[dino @dino__j]

Seen worse bets than Poland to win semi @200 considering its audience poll result and the absolute trash it follows. If Tautameitas can come 2nd in a TV only semi...

[dino @dino__j]

@ChrisWh08370492 you absolute legend

[dino @dino__j]

@ge_aldrig_upp @escbetting I still watch Dami 16 every now and then but I'm not sure I'll ever go back to Eclipse after tonight. Delta is an absolute powerhouse though, how she can elevate such a weak song.