dirty nilly

don't expect easy money here, only tears, sweat and blood

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

it is just the beginning of my article series about derivatives structure

I hope my audience will get smarter and do not let market keep you dumb https://t.co/mNeYRvKbnB

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

Oct 9 digest: BTC slipped under $81K, $830M in longs got liquidated

🌍 Politics & macro

> Nasdaq 100 fell over 1.5% as oil rose and OpenAI's reported revenue came in $20B short of earlier figures

> CBO puts the FY2026 US deficit at ~$2T, up $218B from 2025

> Trump says no attack on Iran before the Nov 3 midterms, blockade stays. Treasury is also going after Iran's oil shadow fleet

> ESMA: MiCA-licensed firms must wind down non-compliant stablecoins, USDT included. Deadline Jan 8, 2027

🪙 Crypto

> Spot ETFs: BTC -$244M, ETH -$72.5M, SOL -$3.3M, XRP +$8.2M

> Ledger is investigating fund losses tied to reseller CryptoBilis. Don't set up devices bought there in the last 90 days

> Thailand's SEC finalized BTC and ETH ETF rules, trading starts Oct 16

> THORChain's co-founder says USDT appears to have blacklisted its Tron vaults

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

US corporate profits have reached 18% of national income

It is the highest level since the end of WWII, according to a new Allianz report

Over the same period, labor's share fell to 60%. It was lower only in the 1950s

The shift began well before ChatGPT. The concern now is that AI could make it permanent

why this time is different:

1) past technological progress eventually benefited both workers and capital owners
2) AI scales cheaply and replaces people first in tasks that require thinking

So the workers' share can shrink even without mass unemployment

→ output grows
→ more of it goes to capital
→ the gains land with whoever owns financial assets

For a trader, this is the real takeaway:

salary alone may not keep pace, and owning assets may matter more

It means being a capital owner is bullish for future, bearish on relying on wages alone

[sturonn @sturonnn]

https://t.co/q9GiwLIM0L

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@CryptooRamo_ @axisrobotics Is it good idea to purchase on TGE?

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@shelby_tommy0 @CatalystLabsX @sequoia @MeckaAI @peakxvpartners @SarvamAI Good research, thanks for your job

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@ShazeemiS Keep posting about this project, I like to see good posts

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@zzaba_a Hope we will see it soon

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@NNiksin @OpenAI It gets more and more absolute app. U don’t need anything, just ChatGPT

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@AxiomExchange sold degens $10M of air 💀

traders paid an extra fee for "priority transactions" on Robinhood Chain

problem: you can't buy priority on RH at all. the sequencer runs first come first served, so a higher fee doesn't move you up the queue

so the degen pays for speed and the tx sits in the same line as everyone else
=
priority fee with no priority

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@zzaba_a Hahaha, accidentally….

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@zzaba_a Claude ships the world of AI

[𝗵𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 @bfresh]

Very possible that @Arbitrum leads the next DeFi szn

- Higher yields from $USDG
- $VAR TGE as a liquidity injection moment
- Deeper stock token/RWA integrations on Robinhood Chain/Arb One

Think this is a great opportunity for any social trading apps w/ Arb integration to play a meaningful role in all of the above

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@volynetspetro @get_truenorth Congratulations. TrueNorth is really cool thing, have u checked out already arb bot?

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@Kevihaiceth @vangrid_io Cool

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@NNiksin @ThomasOrTK I love these intersections of models. Apparently it will benefit each other. Competition is good but not every time

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@bon_g One good recommendation I got from perp trader, that do not chase to become super rich from every trade. Try to build it constantly

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

New FUD just dropped: AI is coming for our bags

Justin Drake from the Ethereum Foundation says AI math could break elliptic curve crypto before quantum computers do. worst case, months

his calm, no-panic advice: move coins to addresses whose public key has never shown up on chain

status: no break exists. it's extrapolation and intuition, nothing more

why a fresh address helps:
→ on BTC (non-Taproot) and ETH the address is a hash of the pubkey
→ until you sign anything, an attacker only sees the hash
→ first signature reveals the pubkey forever

and a signature isn't just a tx. a Permit, a dapp login or a Polymarket order counts too. the average degen has basically zero clean wallets

$SOL is in a worse spot. the address IS the Ed25519 pubkey, no hash layer, so bunker mode can't work there at all

reactions are split: Coinbase's head of crypto calls it FUD, Dragonfly's Haseeb calls it a sober warning

my take: not panic, but know which of your wallets have already signed

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.

Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).

Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.

IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).

Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.

Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?

Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)

Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.

Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.

I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).

Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.

Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.

The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@PunkXBT_ @RobinGuards Privacy focused transfers on Robinhood sounds like it has big potential

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@stacy_muur Damn, I need to renew my subscription to Netflix xdxd😅😅

[dirty nilly @dirty_nilly]

@thekasik I already follow your account much time, but never thought where are you from?