@b3n5096@Sundancing_@VoteHub but it’s not dumb to think it had no effect on the betting market.
I think big accounts and “pollsters” if you can call Votehub that, should be held to a high standard and his actions should be career ending imo.
@b3n5096@Sundancing_ Dude made up a story saying Steven’s internal pollster had no path to victory. He had a lot of traction around this primary and the tweet blew up. Secondarily he was a co-founder of @VoteHub which is partnered with Kalshi. It’s dumb to think the tweet was outcome determinative…
@Emmeth@NRSC I mean yeah, but this is exactly why you don’t campaign with streamers who normie voters don’t know exists.
Even still they can find plenty of in context clips that normie voters will hate
Underdiscussed thing that happened last night is a leftoid activist nutjob winning the primary (with less than 50% of the vote, of course, because moderates split the vote just like in the Senate primary) in Michigan's 7th District. This guy is such a bad candidate that not only is he far left, but he's also got racist quotes about how the black establishment stands in the way of the white left.
He literally used that phrase. He said the "black establishment" "defangs the white left." I appreciate his honesty in admitting the far-left is overwhelmingly white, but thanks to those comments, the GOP somehow has the candidate with fewer problematic quotes about black people in that race.
People don't get that there are so few competitive districts now due to a mix of geographic political polarization and gerrymandering that candidate selection is likely to matter more and nationwide popular vote is likely to matter less when it comes to who wins the House
There are only like 20 actual toss-up districts left in the country (obviously there are also tilt-D and tilt-R districts that are winnable by the other party with a good environment or candidate) and the Democrats have fewer safe seats than the GOP and need to win far more of the toss-ups to get a House majority
If the Democrats throw toss-up House elections by running, say, a demented racist leftoid, there is a universe where they can win the popular vote by like 5 points and still not win the House