Gourav Dixit

Avid reader, Like to engage in simulating conversation.

[Babusaheb @Rajput_nvn]

@milinddeora I am working at this site, where work was in progress on the cooling chiller tank on the terrace. The tank was being cut using a gas welding cutter machine, and sparks from the cutting work caused a fire....
No major damage occurred....

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@WriteToDipen @TheVishalKay @nairatul18 Local here. I live 15kms from Vijaydurga. Your argument about kokan is fake. No big projects are going here in my vicinity. Wind is normal for the season. Less rain this year due to El nino causing particulate matter to float in the air is my guess. Experts can comment.

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@Amey_1986 Dukkar Khat!

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@MsMelChen "As a connoisseur of racism"... You got my follow for this sentence... Rest of your Article was bonus

[Hiro Protagonist (至大) @augeeidos]

In 1929, Victor Lustig, the smoothest con man of the early twentieth century and the man who would later sell the Eiffel Tower twice, took $50,000 of Al Capone's money promising to double it. He never invested a dime. He locked the cash in a safe, waited two weeks, handed it back with a story about deals that fell through, and Capone, moved by the honesty, gave him $5,000 for his trouble. The biographers call it the purest convincer ever recorded. Apparent honesty, invested at maximum stakes, collecting interest from the most dangerous man in America.

On October 19, Elon Musk announced he will give one SpaceX share to every child in America. Next year. "The first of many." The President confirmed the mechanism within hours. Trump Accounts, the same rails the Dell family used.

Take the headline at face value first, because the headline is doing the work. Seventy-three million kids at Friday's close of $146.03 comes to about $10.7 billion. Against his roughly 6.4 billion shares, that prices the gift at 1.1 percent of his stake. Sounds almost serious.

Now read the fine print, because the fine print is where the number actually lives. Nobody is handing stock to seventy-three million children. A parent has to opt in. An account has to be opened, a claim filed, a form signed. Programs of this shape never reach their ceiling; a strong result is a fraction of it. So the real cost is some unknown slice of $10.7 billion, plausibly a few billion dollars, well under half of one percent of his holdings, while the sentence everybody remembers says every child in America. Darrell Huff was not even a statistician. He was a magazine writer with a gift for spotting cooked numbers, and in 1954 he wrote the sharpest short course ever published on the subject, How to Lie with Statistics. One of his chapters covers the well-chosen average: one street, truthfully priced at ten thousand pounds by the mean and two thousand by the median, depending on which buyer the speaker wants to impress. A technically true number, selected for the size of its sound. "Every kid in America" is the mean. The opt-in registry is the median, and nobody is printing that one.

Watch what the sentence did anyway. Monday, the first trading day after he said it, SPCX closed at $147.96, up $1.93 a share. On his 6.4 billion shares, that single green candle added roughly $12.4 billion to his paper wealth. Even the ceiling version of the promise, the full $10.7 billion, was paid for before a single child was named. Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris, the two psychologists who turned getting fooled into a laboratory science, call this the potency hook. We are suckers for big effects from small causes, and the bigger the magic, the less mechanism the mind demands. The sentence is the product. The shares are the coupon.

The route has been driven before, with the receipts public. The Dell family donated $6.25 billion of Dell stock into Trump Accounts. The President spent weeks telling Americans to buy Dell. The stock ran 14 percent. Then the disclosure: Trump himself had sold up to $1 million of Dell into the pump. SpaceX is only the second company to use the rule, and the first one's ledger is open. Doing it again, on camera, in front of everyone who watched the first time, is what an honest vocabulary calls a repeat con.

Earnings are after the close today. Announced Sunday, pumped Monday, earnings Tuesday. Same choreography as the Roadster barrel roll nine days earlier, the driverless flip that landed hours before Tesla's own earnings call.

The defenses arrived right on schedule, pre-cooked as always. "Liberals say the rich should share. A rich man shares. Liberals say it doesn't do anything." Nobody said it does nothing. The frame exists because the honest description cannot be memed: a fraction-of-one-percent marketing spend, self-funded in a day, routed through a government children's program, timed to an earnings call, on rails a documented pump already ran. Try drawing that as a crying cartoon. Daniel Kahneman, the psychologist who won a Nobel Prize for mapping how the mind actually decides, showed decades ago that belief comes first and reasons arrive afterward, hired as attorneys for the conclusion rather than judges of it. The meme does not answer the claim. It cross-examines the claimant.

Huff ended his book with five questions, and they still do the work. Who says so? How does he know? What's missing? Did somebody change the subject? Does it make sense? What is missing here is everything that would make the promise real: a date, a registry, a delivery mechanism for people who legally cannot hold stock. A man who has missed every production promise since 2017 is asking to be believed about a promise with no deadline at all.

Rolf Dobelli, a Swiss writer who cataloged ninety-nine thinking errors in his bestseller The Art of Thinking Clearly, has a chapter for exactly this maneuver. He calls it strategic misrepresentation, the planner's lie. The overpromise gets the project funded, and the truth gets it cancelled. "Next year" is not a date. "The first of many" is not a plan. It is the same lure re-cast, and re-casting the lure is the sport.

Then there is the part that outlasts the headlines. A child cannot touch that account for eighteen years. So the gift does not buy gratitude. It buys households. Every family holding one share becomes a family that hears skepticism as an attack on their kid's future. Benjamin Franklin worked this out with a borrowed book and a political enemy: do someone a favor, and the brain invents a reason to like him rather than admit the favor was a mistake. David McRaney, a journalist who spent two books cataloging self-delusion, wrote it up as the Benjamin Franklin effect. The trick now runs at population scale, through the federal government, on shares in a company where one man keeps about 82 percent of the votes. McRaney supplies a second entry too: the backfire effect, his name for what happens when a correction entrenches the belief it targets. Expect this piece to be screenshotted as proof of the obsession. That is the immune system doing its job.

The unpaid defense attorneys used to volunteer. Now they will be issued, at birth.

David Maurer was a linguist at the University of Louisville who spent years inside the confidence trade while it was still running, and he wrote its anatomy in 1940, The Big Con. He named the stages in the professionals' own argot, and one of them is the touch, the moment real money moves. If next year there is no share, there was never a date to miss. If there is a pilot, a program, a few thousand accounts, the headlines will have finished their work long before. Heads he wins, tails you were naive to count the children.

This is the touch, perfected for the index era. The money appears to move toward the mark. And the mark's own affection completes the circuit.

[Prakash Dadlani @prakdadlani]

@CitizenKamran 30–60 yo's are 576 million people, and you shortlisted these 5 chomus.

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@indiantweetrian Ratioed!

[Gautam @indiantweetrian]

Raibareli, India 📍

Town hall in Raibareli, set on fire by the rioters.

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@RebornManish @prakdadlani Bhai jara inko bata dena India me abhi Lighter bhi banate hai... Aur aap ka bhi usme yogdaan hai

[Zingoor @Zingoorr]

PM modi’s jutti will get more Likes than pappu Rahul Gandhi.

If not i will delete my account ✅

[Abhijit Iyer-Mitra @Iyervval]

I̶ We r̶e̶q̶u̶e̶s̶t̶ demand t̶o̶ the immediate release of

Idiots who can’t get their syntax right will “fix” the education system. When a BU fail, 3 times NLAT fail & Pakistani tailcoater are your “leaders” this is what you get.

[Abhijit Iyer-Mitra @Iyervval]

LONGish POST WARNING

The protests suffer not just from weak topics, but bizarre schizophrenic messaging shifts

They started with SIR. You knew the battle was lost when you had to start clarifying everything & got bogged down in micro-detail. Clearly that wasn’t gaining traction so now it’s moved onto “right to wave the flag”

Leave aside the lack of messaging discipline, this is tactical suicide. You’re attacking the BJP on its strongest USP. You never attack the enemy where he’s strongest - the flag & nationalism.

The BJP was just waiting for the message to shift - possibly with a cabinet reshuffle. But then the CJP & INC themselves shifted it - first to police “brutality” & then to the flag. Godsend for the BJP

To win elections, you have to shift parts of the right to your side. SIR as a topic was never going to shift RW votes. Police “brutality” was never going to shift RW votes. And now after decrying nationalism for 12 years, you think you’re going out-nationalism the BJP? Keep dreaming.

The best part is these 3 clowns & Rahul don’t even realise that they’ve lost collective messaging discipline- buoyed as they are by support from foreign celebrities & the foreign press.

Worse still when you wrap yourself in the flag, your own fellow travellers are the ones
• calling for a coup
• calling for regime change
• celebrating a violent Islamist regime change of a friendly neighbour

This isn’t a protest. This is a collective clown-show. You’ve shifted the narrative, You’ve lost the momentum, You’ve fumbled yourself onto a battlefield of your enemy’s choosing. Heck you’ve lost the whole goddam plot.

[Deedy @deedydas]

I made a short 5 min documentary on the greatest moments of Indian history from 1947 to today

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@shetty_athreya Will it rain in Devgad Taluka this week?

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@BesuraTaansane Ch**yam Sulfate!

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@ctindale @sanjeevsanyal what's your thoughts on it Sir,?

[Rishabh Mukherjee @rishabhm]

There are strict rules around garbage on Mt Everest.

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@ianmiles That's your mistake.... Calling everyone opposing Ambani's Shill. I have people on opposite spectrum are united to oppose Elon Musk who is hell bent on discreding Indian democracy by calling Ambani prime minister of India. It's an offence to Indian democracy and Indian voters.

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@themahavir Yes. It was resolved. I already updated Naman about the same. Thank you very much for the quick resolution.

[Gourav Dixit @dix_gourav]

@kapoorkkunal Why haven't you tagged @elonmusk and his echo chamber @wholemars @cb_doge @swayermerriit