Dustin Lowenberger

Ex sell-side cdn OFS and E&P number cruncher

Opinions are my own.

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

Wow we really jumped to US cos buying non-op minority interests in Cda

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

What if the real price of oil is $70, but it's at the cadence of 3 yrs at $60 and 1 yr at $100

[Z4 Energy Research @ZmansEnrgyBrain]

"Hamm said some have predicted that once the Strait of Hormuz reopens to shipping oil through the Persian Gulf, oil prices will drop back to where they were before the Iran war."

"“I don’t believe that, at all,” Hamm told the Monitor. “I think that we’ll get back to realistic values of oil and natural gas.” - Bismark Tribune

#Bakken #OOTT

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@blue_petro E&Ps out there collecting their billions for the "efficiencies" they've gained while the service cos have cut spud to rrs by half and have worse margins than before

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

I am pretty sure there is alpha in looking at stocks where the analysts say "no positive catalysts for the next yr" when it's in relation to a cyclical that has been beaten to pieces $matr.to

[Chris in Canada 🍁 @tsxman]

$MATR.TO Ebitda beat. Up ~18% YTD and insiders keep buying.

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@longcastadviser @aarondwarwick Doesn't the offering list expanding capacity as the first point

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

All I've learned from this is tech folks are fine using IM to choose board members but if you're an underlying you'll have multiple calls to determine what shade of green to use

[Internal Tech Emails @TechEmails]

Sam Altman's group chat with Satya Nadella

November 21, 2023

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@Taylor__Merritt Easy Taylor. Going to have to tell my wife she's not allowed on twitter today

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@LesIsMore1 Maybe the most annoying thing to model

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

$LTC.v sell side associate opening the financials and seeing they have, 20 swaps for 100 bpd that they need to put in the model

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

Yeah, Iran takes a lot of supply off the table but have you built in $ltc.v increasing their budget by 20% in your model?

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@rockcreekfreak That seems like a q you should know the answer to not me!

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

Yeah, Iran takes a lot of supply off the table but have you built in $ltc.v increasing their budget by 20% in your model?

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@devon_1414 A better buying oppty

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

Wow big news today with $akt.a acquiring $pou drilling arm

Would be a shame if something else happened today to overshadow it

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@devon_1414 Should've bought it 3 months ago! It was optically very cheap before the run, and is clearly in the multiple re-rate narrative its peers are also benefitting from.

Given the deal pushes shares through to $pou shareholdets, you have to expect some selling which could lead to

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@t53832766 Maybe or they just identified it didn't make sense to have their own drilling co and it made sense in the hands of someone else. Mults on drill cos finally made sense for them to sell

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@ShaleTier7 "shales"

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@Taylor__Merritt It will also be materially worse when REM is effective as current system doesn't accurately account for transmission bottlenecks!

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

Yes you're absolutely right! You definitely should water your crops with Brawndo, it's got what plants crave!

[Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1]

This is correct. Iran can’t simply turn off its oil production due to issues of water encroaching its wells. From Claude:

This is a well-known technical challenge in petroleum engineering. If Iran were to deliberately curtail or shut in production across its major fields, water infiltration (also called water influx or water encroachment) would be a serious and potentially irreversible problem. Here’s why:

The Core Mechanics
Most of Iran’s giant fields — Ahvaz, Gachsaran, Marun, Aghajari — are carbonate reservoirs under natural water drive. Aquifers underlying or flanking the reservoir rock are under pressure, and they push water upward into the pore space as oil is produced. When you stop producing oil, you remove the pressure sink that was keeping water at bay. The aquifer doesn’t stop — it keeps pushing.

Specific Technical Problems
1. Water Coning and Cresting
In vertical and horizontal wells respectively, shutting in production removes the drawdown that was managing the water-oil contact. When production resumes, the water-oil interface may have moved upward significantly, meaning wells that were previously clean producers now produce predominantly water.
2. Irreversible Aquifer Encroachment
Carbonate reservoirs like Iran’s have highly heterogeneous permeability — fractures, vugs, and matrix. Water preferentially invades high-permeability channels (fractures) during a shut-in, bypassing oil in the matrix. This oil becomes residually trapped and is extremely difficult to recover later. The damage is often permanent.
3. Wellbore Flooding
In wells that are shut in rather than properly killed, water can migrate up the wellbore itself, particularly in older or poorly-cemented completions. Resuming production from a water-filled wellbore requires costly workover operations and risks formation damage.
4. Pressure Redistribution and Cross-Flow
In multi-zone completions (common in Iran’s stacked carbonate pays), shutting in causes pressure to equilibrate between zones. Water from a water-bearing zone can cross-flow into an oil-bearing zone downhole, contaminating it without any surface signal.
5. Reservoir Pressure Maintenance Complications
Iran has been injecting water into many of its fields (e.g., via the NIOC EOR programs) specifically to maintain pressure and slow natural aquifer encroachment. A sudden shut-in disrupts the carefully managed injection/production balance, potentially causing localized pressure spikes or collapses that further destabilize the water-oil contact geometry.

The Scale Problem
Iran’s fields are among the largest and most complex carbonate systems in the world, some with very active aquifers. The Asmari and Bangestan formations have notoriously high natural water drive energy. Unlike sandstone reservoirs where water movement is relatively slow and predictable, fractured carbonates can see very rapid water breakthrough once the equilibrium is disturbed.

Practical Consequence
A prolonged shut-in — even of a few months — across major Iranian fields could permanently impair ultimate recovery factors, potentially stranding hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. This is why, even during sanctions regimes, Iran has tried to maintain at least minimum production levels rather than fully shutting fields in. The engineering cost of a cold shut-in followed by restart is enormous, and the reservoir damage may not become fully apparent until years later when water cuts rise to uneconomic levels.
It’s a meaningful deterrent to any strategy that contemplates a clean “off switch” for Iranian production.

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@CapitalShipyard Net $84mm fx loss in your numbers which get you to $400mm+

[Dustin Lowenberger @djlowe]

@OilCoIntern What is the math on why the avg bbl moved up $30? And why do we care about avg instead of marginal