David-Michael Lincke

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@BradMunchen Add MSCI on day 10

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@WarrenPies @stevehou BCOM following the latter approach

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@WarrenPies @stevehou There is no such thing as value-weighting when it comes to commodity indices. The primarily followed benchmarks use either purely production weights (GSCI) or combining those with liquidity (trading volume) weights to achieve a more balanced sector profile.

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@LanceRoberts Mountains that look like mole hills, why not visit the European Alps and experience some grown up rocks? Much cheaper too.

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@Rebrand_As_Y Ackman

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@donnelly_brent Brent, love your weekly market screed. But today's pronouncement on crude is the rare case of major foot in mouth disease. If the CL curve had persistently maintained the inverted shape you are showing through all these years, then USO would have been a splendid investment.

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@joshyoung @jorge_moj @EIAgov Unclear? Plenty of reserve capacity among OPEC.

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@profplum99 You are comparing live current VIX levels with the Friday's stale closing level of VIX1D.

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@hussmanjp You keep attributing the failure of “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” conditions to trigger corrections to ZIRP. That would suggest the signal to become effective again now. However, that does not seem to be the case. What gives?

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@fkronawitter1 Enjoy Zürs and skiing the Arlberg, a regular weekend getaway for me through the winter.

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@profitsplusid @izakaminska Moving up but not to a dramatic state of affairs just yet:

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@jnordvig @JeremyDSchwartz JPM begs to differ taking into account a broader range of avenues to taking exposure to gold:

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@KiwiPMI And if the stock appreciates materially through the call strike, you will have that stock called away just before the ex-dividend date.

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@BobEUnlimited @Econ_Parker The picture has worsened slightly in the meantime...

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@Ksidiii @yungshady_2 Actually, automatic exercise rules applied by the exchanges7OCC are based on the RTH closing price. But of course, any rational holder of long puts will be guided by after hours action in determining whether to request exercise regardless.

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@INArteCarloDoss Is BAC your source for this? Is the analysis updated to 28 July, and could you post the chart?

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@steveanastasiou Nice illustration by DB of bad historical outcomes in the wake of M2 contractions:

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@dave_stonks @MacroAlf Prior to the GFC, the Fed ran a scarce reserves regime where the amount of reserves in the system directly determined FFR. The current ample reserves regime relies on IOER to set the level of FFR.

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@M1tchRosenthal Perfectly correlated time series are not necessarily cointegrated. Suggest you look up an accessible yet rigorous exposition of cointegration applied to financial time series as presented e.g. in the book "Market Models" by Carol Alexander.

[David-Michael Lincke @dmlincke]

@BobEUnlimited There are powerful theoretical reasons to discount claims of typical institutional long-only involvement in commodity futures markets to persistently affect prices (lack of physical hoarding,pure side bets). Furthermore, a wealth of empirical research disputes causality.