Phantom Economics

Ghostwriter of fiscal misfortunes

[Dividendology @dividendology]

Millennials and Gen Z are wealthier at age 34 than previous generations were at the same age:

🟨 Millennials/Gen Z: $347,000
⬜ Gen X: $283,000
🟧 Baby Boomers: $257,000

That’s roughly 23% more wealth than Gen X and 35% more than Baby Boomers, adjusted for inflation.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

Treasuries losing to gold at these yields. It's not gonna end well

[Mike McGlone @mikemcglone11]

Bullion Faces a Lose-Lose vs. Treasuries, Stocks

Gold may have reached too extreme a premium vs. US Treasuries to sustain its rally. My graphic emphasizes the wide crocodile jaws between the Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ Year Total Return Index vs. bullion at about 30 (from a base of 100 in 2006) and the surging stock market.

Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/R0X3XkGsjN {BI COMD}
#gold #bonds #stockmarket @Bloomberg

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

Stagflation is here to stay. The all-clear is the second wave.

[In Gold We Trust @IGWTreport]

The peace deal is welcome, and oil has fallen on it. But a lower oil price is not lower inflation.

The 1970s showed the shape of it: inflation came in two waves, and the gap between them, when the first shock faded, was when the second took hold.

The all-clear and the next wave tend to be the same moment.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

@worldbankdata Sobering. But pace isn't fixed. Sovereign capital and regulatory frameworks compress timelines. UAE went from underdeveloped to advanced in 50 years.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

@RealEJAntoni 82.7% benefits gap. Unsustainable

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

@jackprandelli 50 days is thin. Hormuz restricted and real. UAE Fujairah bypass held though. Tested infrastructure not luck.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

@cryptorover Carry trade unwind incoming

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

@TheShortBear AI disinflation is the right call. FED still has a Hormuz problem though.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

@Zemedeneh PIF hosts great summits. ADGM keeps the actual allocations.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

Banks made a trillion, savers got 2.2%. Capital goes where it's treated better. Zero income tax looks pretty good right now.

[ACEMAXX ANALYTICS @acemaxx]

#Fed ’s high-rate era handed $1tn windfall to US #banks - chart @FT .com
https://t.co/QEpzF8Qh5a

[🟩 Genuine Articles // GG 🦎 @genuinearticles]

2016: 'Own your data'

2026: 'Own your learning loop'

If you can't beat them, train them.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

First ceasefire lasted hours before strikes hit Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain. Need real shipping data before pricing this in.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

48 days of supply and Hormuz restricted. UAE's Fujairah pipeline and storage just became the structural play.

[JTheretohelp1 @JTheretohelp1]

It’s probably nothing…

“US oil inventories down to 48 days (and close to to 45-year lows).”—-BofA

Source: Bank of America

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

@jackprandelli 1.2 billion barrel hole and still $90. China destocking is a clock not a condition. Hormuz restricted but Fujairah still flows

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

@OddStats VIX rhymes until the regime changes. None of your 7 comps had an active Gulf conflict constraining Hormuz.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

0.551 forward differential and compressing. Carry works until risk-off hits and BNM gradualism gets a reality check.

[Deer Point Macro @deerpointmacro]

A key dynamic is the divergence in the forward policy path between the Federal Reserve and Bank Negara Malaysia. While the Fed is expected to keep policy relatively tight over the next year, the implied easing path from BNM is more gradual, resulting in a widening or at least sustained policy rate differential in favor of Malaysia on a forward-looking basis.

This relative stability in Malaysia’s policy trajectory versus a still-restrictive Fed supports yield differentials that are conducive to currency strength, as markets price a more anchored rate path in Malaysia compared to the U.S.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

@0xChainMind 94x revenue and losing billions every quarter. Yeah that'll end great

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

Most initial claims turn out false. Verify everything.

[Negar Mortazavi نگار مرتضوی @NegarMortazavi]

U.S. and Iran finally reached a peace deal to end the war, open the Strait of Hormuz and remove the U.S. blockade, and to continue negotiating on the nuclear program and sanctions.

I joined @FRANCE24 to discuss.
https://t.co/NlFLe0gyUp

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

Stagflation is here to stay. Sovereign capital doesn't need rate cuts to keep building.

[Crypto Tice @CryptoTice_]

INSIGHTS:

AI is now driving inflation higher.

Consumer prices for computer software and accessories up 14.5% year over year in May.

The biggest annual increase on record since 2000.

Producer prices for electronic components up 27% year over year.
Also the biggest increase on record.

Before 2026 these prices fell almost every year since 2000.
Now they're surging.

Memory prices alone up 290% year over year.
DDR5 and DDR4 RAM more than doubled.

AI data centers absorbing the vast majority of global chip supply.

The Iran War is driving energy inflation.
AI is driving technology inflation.

Both hitting at the same time.

RAM price shocks will likely keep inflation elevated well into 2027.

The Fed wanted to cut rates.
The data keeps making it impossible.

[Phantom Economics @docfiscal]

@theMihirV This isn't gonna end well