Doni E

I am extremely mediocre

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @AmericaFirst316 I assume the 60/40 is largely due to having 0 actual voter data yet? I assume if 3 days into IPEV it looks like Ohio you would change those odds?

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus I merely thought it could be helpful information for those who would benefit.

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus I know i keep saying you should make this or that. But what would be a cool graphic is if each day your created a chart that said how many additional votes each metro must make up on E-Day to offset the lag vs how many they actually got in 2022 and 2024.

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @TheDataGooroo They dont realize that theyre seeing exactly why falling behind in VBM is so detrimental. Yes clearly some people who were VBM are now IPEV but so many have clearly fallen out. And to the extent that they fall further behind it will be even worse on E-day.

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus I appreciate that. I keep telling myself I’ll create some dashboards. Maybe when I get past tax season.

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus So in theory they should beating pulling out money and moving to winnable races but they also can’t admit they’re losing lest they kill their plan of manifesting excitement. So what do they do now?

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @GabNek12 obviously very early and still need to wait on those metro areas, but if this becomes a pattern do you become more bullish on where the house ends up nationally?

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus I'm seeing the questions high vs low turnout. Id think if both parties are high, or both are low then the default is the partisan lean of the state. It is when the turnout isnt consistent that you get a wave. Am I understanding this correctly?

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @ishaq_shamuel @WinWithJMC if you remove NJ and VA how far ahead is it even running?

[Doni E @doni999]

historically, do younger voters vote earlier or closer to election day? i.e do we expect their share to increase decrease or remain static from here on out?

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @CTIronman @LPDonovan @admcrlsn until IPEV starts there they post whatever they want. Once it does start they'll jsut say oh looks like republicans came home. And then we will be told to forget all of their pre 10/15 polling because those were merely snapshots in time.

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @CTIronman @LPDonovan @admcrlsn I'm curious we have now see many Hispanic voters voting in their home country elections and they have overwhelmingly been voting for rightwing candidates. I know this is a subset of a subset but seems meaningful.

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus You will not be doing any AZ analysis right? Is there somone you trust who will be?

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @bestgtor88 @varadmehta @DominicDimatte1 Dumb question. What is the electoral impact for 8-9% vs 12%?

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @earlyvotedata @Buckbreaker1818 @sock_puppet1787 @SeanTrende I guess the real question is are they really going to go put millions into KS?

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @Legal_Fil So much has changed about campaigning since the 90s, but “the old so-and-so from the other party likes me” has never changed. It’s like a candidate visiting their strongest district in the final week and everyone saying, “A winning candidate wouldn’t need to do that.”

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @WinWithJMC @HomeBasedddd Id like to claim this means only voters in NJ and FL even want to have elections naymore.

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @EthWindward @BasedDavePA My only response would be if AA turnout is down in GA as well in November, I can only imagine how much more it would drop in a runoff featuring this guy only

[Doni E @doni999]

@TonerousHyus @ElectionWiz is that trending down?