Doom Log

Original account: @DoomLog

All tweets are my opinion only, not investment advice.

[GonzalesJ @juan_gonzalesP]

The Bond Vigilantes are no longer playing games. 🔥

The 10y10y forward Treasury yield just printed ~5.9%-a 20-year high-in the same week CPI and retail sales both disappointed. The long end has stopped pricing the economy and started pricing the deficit.

Why this decoupling is the signal: • The 10y10y strips out near-term noise. It prices the next decade: supply, term premium, inflation risk.

• 2013's tantrum was a flows shock. This one is a solvency premium-stickier and more political.
• Weak data should have rallied duration. It didn't. The market no longer trusts the Fed as buyer of last resort.
• Exit doors are narrow: austerity (political fiction), monetization (debasement), or a crisis that forces the choice.

Which catalyst breaks the long end first: a failed auction, forced Fed QE, or genuine fiscal consolidation?

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@aRishisays Shrinking population and wealth effect influencing youth employment will likely continue, so it’s structural

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@benwfreeman1 These are implied probabilities and you have no fucking idea what you are talking about.

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

Check September NQ numbers after a double digit red month. Don’t listen to clown

[xTrends @xtrends]

Just remember they will do everything in their power to pump this into the election, you should look to buy this here and then put your crash helmet after the election. It is going to be truly end of the world shit after that

So this final run for the tulips is your last chance to get a land gold gun and probably a fucking bunker

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@jbulltard1 then there's the generalists who become "experts" in a space, leg into it, experience upside, then hold and add all the way back down.

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@NickTimiraos Bessent predicting that there would be easing this year does not reflect what you said here at all..

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@TraderBillyAU Yeah it’s time to stop pressing the yield upside now that oil curve has gotten wrecked…

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@ryanchern Sounds like next time they'll be properly delta hedging with tails

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@Biohazard3737 Funding shorts for the AI stuff you mentioned

[Chairlift Capital @ChairliftCap]

2021 was definitely dumb but I don't think people were rioting for a 24 year old's 13F back then

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@LONGCONVEXITY They also widened the bands…

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@yieldsearcher Why can't the UK and Japan raise rates...?

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@NikLentz @TraderBillyAU what they do is push until they are given push back. the wankers in London love to do what you are seeing right now, and get expectations to ridiculous levels until they are told they're wrong demonstratively

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@DannyDayan5 This is a good thing for chinas recovering economy that has been shit for some time…?

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@danielsethlewis Cautious in a hell scape, unpredictable environment? Not much to write about

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@goodalexander it's hard when thousands of others are trying to do the same leading up to it...

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@schmosby_xbt Because real price discovery will cause lower and more competitive prices on average…

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@Merridew__ You forgot the additional mortgage on your primary residence

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@negligible_cap yeah has nothing to do with them desperately trying to stop a market from crashing, and leaning on the same thematic nonsense that has anchored everything for the last year...

[Doom Log @DoomLog_]

@Dcpcooks 1 word, WARSH