Spencer

This account is strictly fantasy football. Always looking for analysis and deep dives worth talking about.
Analyst on @SleeperHQ | former writer @TheHateful8FF

[Scott Barrett @ScottBarrettDFB]

Note to self: go all-in on whoever Chicago's slot WR is this year

[Ian Hartitz @Ihartitz]

The best and worst matchups during the fantasy football playoffs in terms of PPR points per game allowed to each position, get this, in a thread. Can't stress enough the thread part of the equation. It's a thread. Not one tweet, we got multiple here together in a thread 🧵🧵🧵🧵

[Matt Harmon @MattHarmon_BYB]

The top-15 WRs in yards per route run vs. man coverage this season, per TruMedia. Obviously, any per-route stat is not exclusively player-owned but I generally believe good players produce vs. man. Much of this list passes the smell test and features most of my favorite WRs on film this year.

Some quick takes:
- Ladd McConkey has pretty definitively been the best rookie WR on film this season and stats back it up
- Puka Nacua level up?
- George Pickens for sure level jump, been saying it since Week 2-3
- Jameson Williams has smoked single coverage on all the important routes
- JSN has become the Seahawks answer to man coverage and on late-downs. That's a big deal
- RP victory lap: Josh Downs is a baller, Nico Collins is elite
- Courtland Sutton is the biggest surprise at WR this year
- Malik Nabers' ability to beat man and press translated from the jump. Future is very bright.

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

"When you're using your "gut", you're really just using tons of subconscious inputs to make a decision. It's just not as overt as, say, data in a spreadsheet. It's, instead, all in your brain."

Primo shower thought material, @LateRoundQB

Your gut is in your brain!

[Nate Tice @Nate_Tice]

I think there has been a lack of credit being given to how good these defensive plans and players are. A majority of teams have extensive pass rush plans and/or multiple players that can create pressure.

Teams get to Cover 2 in like 10 different ways a game now. It’s not static.

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

@JohnLaghezza @dwainmcfarland I'd rather have option C: Najee Harris.

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

@SharpFootball PPR scoring, this RB finished RB23 last year, his teammate was RB22.

They should be better in 2024, and we shouldn't be surprised if one of Najee or Warren finish in the top 12 and the other is still top 24. Seems like one of the safest picks in mid to late rounds.

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

ESPN's RB24 enticing rushing stats from 2023:

- 7th in rush yds
- 6th rush att
- 1st YAC, 3rd YAC/att
- 2nd broken tackles, 4th att/bt
- 30th YBC

Has an upgraded o-line, QB, and OC, and has played all 17 games in each of his 3 years in the NFL.

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

He has a split backfield, and his teammate is arguably better with equal or better stats in these categories. He's being drafted as RB26 entering year 3.

The team has the 3rd easiest SOS and middle of the pack net rest advantage (+2) per @SharpFootball

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

@TheFFBallers They don't call him "Sticky Hands Harris" for nothing!

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

Still unsure about Adams. I'm still taking Kupp. I'm still wondering if we're all big dumdums with Lockett's ADP.

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

In their Age 31 seasons, elite fantasy WRs have still managed ~102% of their career average production.

If you can get over the injury risk with Kupp, he is an absolutely screaming value.

[SAL VETRI @SalVetriDFS]

The Eagles Top-2 RBs combined for 69 catches last year - which would've ranked Top-5 among starting RBs.

And Saquon will now take over this backfield fully.

Expect new OC Kellen Moore to prioritize Saquon in the passing game.

Saquon has upside still in Philly...

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

The best advice I can give you this season is to understand that fantasy football is won by outliers.

The most broadly predictive stat is last year’s fantasy points. But the ADP market knows that.

Only a handful of players truly matter each year. Read on for how to find them.

[David J. Gautieri @GuruFantasyWrld]

There are no bad draft spots – only bad drafters.

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

@thorku @SleeperHQ Looks like you got their attention.

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

@VZAM610 @adamlevitan #1 reason: underdog dramatically favors scoring for the WR position

#2 reason: home leagues notoriously draft RBs early and often

#3 reason: UD is best ball and Yahoo here implies redraft home leagues. Very different formats overall.

[Adam Levitan @adamlevitan]

How do we know that the people who've had actual intercourse over the last few months have begun drafting?

For the first time all year, WRs are falling over the last week. RBs are rising.

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

@AndrewHallFF Javonte Williams. There's a chance you can get a decent price if an owner was out a week ago and sees the most recent positive news as a sell-high moment.

Payton generates productive backfields. Williams is the most talented guy there.

[Spencer @doublefdoubleg]

@17gamepace What made you decide to only sample 8 players instead of 10 in one of these years? That language is confusing to me, "only found top 8 one year." Was there a tie for 9th, 10th, 11th etc.?