Dr.Ötker 99%FI 💸

EE Ph.D. #BUEE
Bileşik getiri takipçisi 🧠
(Paylaşımlar kesinlikle yatırım tavsiyesi değildir)

[Dr.Ötker 99%FI 💸 @dr_otker]

@joedab12 I think there is a good chance it'll turn, cant see anything bad https://t.co/Cz2wCJ19D7

[Finn Stockinger @FinnStockinger]

$VICR Q2 earnings just dropped, and it confirms almost everything we were anticipating prior to the call.

First, the raw numbers:

> Revenue: $143.4M (+26.9% QoQ)

> EPS: $1.04 (vs $0.44 in Q1) — massive jump.

> Backlog: $380M (+26% QoQ, +145% YoY)

> Gross Margin: 58.0% (up sequentially from 55.2%)

> Cash: $453.6M (no burn, cash pile growing)

Here is how the actual results stack up against our pre-earnings thesis:

1. The Operational Inflection is REAL (Fab 2 Confirmed)

We talked about their capacity squeeze and the need for scale.

CEO Patrizio Vinciarelli just confirmed that demand is rapidly absorbing their first ChiP fab's capacity, forcing them to officially step toward building Fab 2 specifically for 2nd Gen VPD.

The inflection point isn't theoretical anymore - it's happening in the footprint.

2. 2nd Gen VPD is beating market workarounds

We noted earlier that traditional power routing hits a hard thermal/current wall above 1000A.

Vinciarelli addressed this directly: hyperscalers using 1st Gen systems are struggling, and the industry’s shift to IVRs just trades low current density for low current gain.

Vicor’s Gen2 VPD IP positioning directly solves this for upcoming TPUs, custom accelerators, and Wafer Scale Engines.

3. The Backlog Explosion (+145% YoY)

A $380M backlog validates that hyperscalers and OEMs are lock-in committing to Vicor's tech stack rather than risking bottlenecks.

High-density power delivery is officially the core architectural gatekeeper for next-gen compute.

This isn't a random earnings beat; it’s a structural confirmation of the thesis.

High-margin licensing, capacity maxing out, and Gen2 adoption are all aligning.

Listening to the call for updates on licensing pacing and Fab 2 CapEx timelines.

[Berk Demirkıran @berkdemirkiran_]

@dr_otker Evet düşen kırılımında işaret etmiştim. 1850 bölgesinden teyit de aldı. 2100 ler masada gibi 1980 i de geçerse.

[Dr.Ötker 99%FI 💸 @dr_otker]

@berkdemirkiran_ Hocam ethda momentum kuvvetli gibi. bir analiz bekleriz

[Dr.Ötker 99%FI 💸 @dr_otker]

@banu_abla_fin evet ben de d almıştım. fakat diğerleri epey ayrışmış görünüyor

[Dr.Ötker 99%FI 💸 @dr_otker]

@banu_abla_fin yok bunlardn hangisi kastettim

[Dr.Ötker 99%FI 💸 @dr_otker]

@banu_abla_fin Günaydın hocam hangi kardemiri alıyoruz?

[Dr.Ötker 99%FI 💸 @dr_otker]

@grok @kermankohli lol i dont think so

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Nvidia $NVDA disclosed a 9.3% passive stake in Nebius $NBIS, representing 22.26 million shares.

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

He invested in stuff he did know about ( $ADBE ) and is down -55% 🤣

[Puru Saxena @saxena_puru]

Comments from Databricks CEO suggest that the "AI trade" has legs and this pullback is a buying opportunity.

[Dr.Ötker 99%FI 💸 @dr_otker]

bu yarış kesinlikle AI altyapı yatırımına, capexine yansımaz diyenlerin argümanlarını duymak isterim

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Xi is trying to subsidize and diffuse China's technology again by pushing the country's AI model makers toward open weights/open source.

The U.S. frontier leaders are going to step-function up and dramatically increase their lead in the next few quarters with what they have in the pipeline.

It's going to be fun to watch. I trust in the ingenuity and innovation of American AI model makers and AI chip makers.

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

They don't need a blank check and considering how leading-edge capacity is coming in the next 4 years (even logic isn't a bottleneck)
The real bottleneck is HBM and DRAM capacity

[Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞) @teortaxesTex]

keep it simple, stupid

[Susan Zhang @suchenzang]

absolutely incredible things happening on the TL:

alibaba effectively admitted to being MANDATED by their Big Guy to pivot AWAY from closed and TOWARDS open (weights)

while the US is throwing export controls around like a game of blind pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey, China is really going all in on commoditization, forcing their corps to foot their own AI bills and release the final artifacts to the public (thereby controlling public fear of walled gardens and mass job displacement while allowing their AI labs to build goodwill at the same time)

now tell me, who is the blind one in their policy strategies?

[Irrational Analysis @insane_analyst]

Everyone in the ecosystem cant sustain 80%+ gross margins.

Market has been betting Nvidia gives up their share. Maybe they keep it.

Use brain to figure out who loses due to cheap open source models. It's not Mr. Leather Jacket.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

S&P 500 earnings season is off to a strong start:

33 of 33 early reporters beat EPS estimates

[Dr.Ötker 99%FI 💸 @dr_otker]

- Daha ucuz yapay zeka modelleri, öncü yapay zeka laboratuvarlarının ekonomisini zorlayabilir, ancak aynı zamanda daha yüksek benimseme oranlarına, daha fazla çıkarıma ve nihayetinde daha fazla donanım talebine yol açar.

- Daha fazla bellek kapasitesi, sonunda bellek fiyatlarını normalleştirebilir, ancak her yeni yonga, milyarlarca dolarlık yarı iletken üretim ekipmanı gerektirir.

- Yapay zeka harcamaları sona ermiyor; genişliyor. Liderlik, değer zincirinin bir bölümünden diğerine geçiyor.

Piyasa, zorunlu satışları bozulan temellerle karıştırıyor.

Bunlar çok farklı iki şey.

[IvanaSPEAR @IvanaSpear]

The scariest chart on Wall Street isn't saying what people think it is.

The Morgan Stanley Tech Momentum Index just printed a 17-day rate of change of -35.9% — the worst reading in its 27-year history.

Most investors are reading this as the AI trade breaking.

I see a factor unwind, not a fundamental one.

Momentum is one of the most successful investment factors ever discovered. Decades of research have shown that stocks with the strongest price trends tend to keep outperforming.

That's why it has become the foundation of countless quantitative strategies.

When everyone owns the same baskets, it doesn't take much: a quarter-end rebalance, thin summer liquidity, or a headline taken the wrong way for everyone to rush through the same exit.

This time, we had all of the above, on top of one of the strongest momentum runs in years.

The problem isn't momentum.

The problem is that too much capital is now chasing the same momentum signals.

But factor investing is very different from fundamental investing.

For fundamental investors, these periods often create the best opportunities because the edge isn't in owning the broad theme. It's in understanding what each company actually does within the value chain.

During times like this, we revisit every part of our coverage universe and ask a simple question:

What's actually getting stronger?

- Cheaper AI models may pressure AI lab economics, but they also drive higher adoption, more inference, and ultimately more hardware demand.

- More memory capacity may eventually normalize memory pricing, but every new wafer requires billions of dollars of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

- AI spending isn't ending; it's broadening. Leadership is rotating from one part of the value chain to the next.

The market is confusing forced selling with deteriorating fundamentals.

Those are two very different things.

Link in comments for the latest Tech Edge that includes a primer on quant vs. fundamental investing.

[Dr.Ötker 99%FI 💸 @dr_otker]

budur!