Trying to catch bottoms is probably costing you a lot of $$. The highest-probability entry comes AFTER the panic.
This is how I enter leadership on weakness instead:
1. Identify a leading RS stock.
2. Wait for sellers to flush it into a major weekly pivot (9EMA, 21EMA, prior breakout, weekly high/low, etc.).
3. Let the weak hands panic.
4. Watch for buyers to defend the level.
5. Enter on the 15/30min pivot reclaim.
6. Risk against LOD.
I'm not buying because I "hope" it bounces...
...I'm buying because buyers have already started proving they're willing to defend the area.
That's how I consistently buy the right side of the V with tight risk + asymmetric upside.
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Example:
$SNDK - Potential parabolic short candidate into the end of the week.
Consider today day 2 of a parabolic burst. 2nd consecutive day of range expansion with 4 consecutive days of volume expansion, only missing the unfilled gaps. The angle of the trend has started to accelerate and likely building up into a climax.
$SNDK is trading 330% above its 200-day moving average, the most extended i've seen a large cap name above the 200ma in my studies going all the way back to the mid-1990's.
We are up over 100% in 13 days and nearly 1,000% in 5 months, right up into the big $500 century mark. Parabolic moves in the super‑liquid momentum stocks often peak right at, or overshoot, these obvious round numbers: $NVDA 1000, $SMCI 1000, $MSTR 500, $TSLA 500, etc.
Tom Dante's trading series changed how i think about the markets .
Only 184k views. But it's the most complete trading education I've found—for free.
I rewatched it, took detailed notes, and extracted the key lessons.
If you're serious about trading, read this:
All credits: @Trader_Dante
I post this annually as I believe that the wisdom of Old Turkey deserves attention at least annually (if not more frequently). Given the post is about a man referred to as Old Turkey, Thanksgiving seems an opportune time to revisit. Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate.
—
“Reminiscences of a Stock Operator…there’s a lot of wisdom in that book…just keep reading what the Old Turkey says about the trend and you’ll have about 50% of the [trading] game licked.” – Stan Druckenmiller
“Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, by Edwin LeFevre...read it so many times you lose track of how many, underline your favorite passages until you tear holes in the pages and be able to quote Old Turkey by heart.” – Ed Seykota
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“His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast. The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap’s answer was always the same. The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: “What do you think I ought to do?” Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, “You know, it’s a bull market!” Time and again I heard him say, “Well, this is a bull market, you know!” as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And, of course, I did not get his meaning...What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me. I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements…” - Edwin Lefèvre in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
“A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he is to make a living at this game. But he must not trust himself too much. He must wait for the market to confirm.”
— Jesse Livermore
Profitable trading is not about opinions, not about a prediction, great stock tips/picks, or more screen time.
Profitable trading is all about math, making more money on profitable trades than you lose on unprofitable trades.
How you do this is the details; read below
There is a great line from the Movie “Sicario” when the new agent asks the experienced one expert in many things
“Is there anything I should know”?
He responds “ your asking me how a watch works. For now, let’s just keep an eye on the time”.
That is what I feel like when it comes to the markets & trading when I talk to trader.
The time is your risk. Watch your risk! Make sure you survive long enough to learn how the watch works so you will be a one the very few that experience true, lasting freedom.
"Retirement starts when you stop sacrificing today for some imaginary tomorrow.
You retire by saving up enough money, becoming a monk, or by finding work that feels like play to you."
@naval
Trading is a marathon not a sprint. Focus on compounding your capital in the good markets and protecting it in downtrends/chop.
You must love the game to succeed. One of the hardest endeavors out there and takes a high level of focus, discipline, and persistence.
Embrace the challenge and never give up.
Have A Great Weekend
Do NOT buy an economic narrative, a macro thesis, an industry, or a company you really like.
Buy a chart setup in a fast moving stock of a growing company that belongs to a hot industry, in the right market environment.
There are NO:
Holy Grails
Guarantees
Sure Things
Get rich quick.
Magic indicator
It's hard work, perseverance, process with risk management. Your passion will determine your outcome. Share with a struggling trader.
This is my 50th year trading futures markets.
Here is a greatly abbreviated list of the lessons I have learned (many lessons more than once)
My perspective is as a discretionary chart-based trader
1. A trading plan is not complete unless it provides contingencies for all known possibilities
2. A trading plan is incomplete unless is cuts losing trades quickly and allows winning trades to grow
3. I might think I know where a market is headed near-term, but in fact I don't have a clue
4. The trades I most want to believe are often the trades I least want to own
5. A trading plan is useless unless you repeatedly pull the trigger -- if you can't do so, then it is your head/heart/guts that are broken, not your trading plan
6. Depending on circumstances, I can be either left or right brain dominant. The battle between left and right brains for the grey areas of my thought process is often when trading is most frustrating, but also where I can learn the most about myself
7. Learning about self through trading is important, because successful trading is mostly a function of preventing self-sabotage
8. There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are few old, bold traders
9. Forget being a consistent big-time winner until you learn to excel at losing
10. It is best NOT to pay attention to an account balance during a really profitable run
11. Open trade profits do not belong to me so except for filing taxes I do not track this data
12. ROR and Sharpe are the two most meaningless performance metrics on the planet
13. The 10X, 20X et al moves in crypto are a once-in-a-lifetime experience. Younger traders should not expect repeat performances
14. Trading rules, especially the specifics on indicators, CANNOT be optimized. Sorry
15. Trading is best treated as a marathon, never as a sprint
16. For a trader with less than five years of experience, your worst drawdown is the one that has not yet occurred
17. Many many more