Lönnrot

Researcher in stat. physics/Finance/Python/Complexity econ (esp. supply chains&macro), halfway between a startup and academia

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@SakumiBLR La neutralité dans quel sens?

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@CamilleSouffron @QuetzaIc0atl @LMichk Tu peux approfondir pour un béotien de la philo ?

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@Kazimierz280415 also used by firms as insurance against quantity shortages, which you are assuming away in market-clearing equilibrium. So your framework dismisses one very important role of inventories by construction

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

Another interesting thing, since RF raises the issue of inventories, is in fact how one should think of production functions if seriously considering disequilibrium problems.
I think the issue is that the common "language" we use to frame things in econ is at heart a language

[Roger E. A. Farmer @farmerrf]

A great comment from @hidetomitanaka on the magisterial paper by @guido_lorenzoni and @IvanWerning and one I endorse. I hope their work leads others to return to questions that predate the rational expectations revolution.

My number one question is: How does an economy function when trades take place outside of a Walrasian equilibrium? I do not think that Calvo pricing is a satisfactory answer to that question because it is, in essence, an alternative equilibrium concept — as opposed to a disequilibrium trading mechanism.

A satisfactory resolution would contain, IMO, several elements.

1. Expectations matter and they do not always coincide with outcomes, even probabilistically.

2. The set of traders changes over time as a consequence of birth and death and some traders, in all markets, are more sophisticated than others.

3. The world is not fully ergodic over the lifetime of a typical agent: see our definition here, in work with J. P. Bouchaud, of quasi-non ergodicity: https://t.co/txeI9cjwid

4. Point 4 implies that people will not generally be able to learn in finite time. The economy will NEVER attain an equilibrium in the Walrasian sense — or in the Lorenzoni-Werning sense which adds price setters.

5. Inventories act as a buffer against imperfect price discovery: they do not appear as an important element in our theories. They should! This, I believe, is one of the points of @hidetomitanaka’s point about early vs late Hicks.

None of these points should be taken as a negative assessment of the LW paper which is a tour de force and which I highly recommend.

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@Kazimierz280415 but see, since you are working in standard market clearing equilibrium (from what I can tell) your inventories only play a role in the way prices are set and in doing price stickiness. In practice if you read eg Sterman and how he did business dynamics at MIT, inventories are

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@Alea_ @galactiknavy @SakumiBLR Tu peux en dire plus?

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@FoncelJerome @chambergeot17 Je n'ai fait qu'une prépa de province 😞 ceci explique hélas le fait que je ne suis toujours pas rentier...

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

Je ne comprends pas qu'on trouve l'explication de @sc_cath pour dire que Zucman a une méthodologie discutable difficiles à comprendre.
Imaginons Jean: au chômage, pas de revenus autres que son RSA à un peu moins de 600€ par mois. Jean consomme tout ce revenu et paye 20% de TVA

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@QuetzaIc0atl @LMichk Mais justement non? Je pense que dire que je veux que chacun puisse poursuivre sa propre définition du bien implique aussi des moyens et des "capabilities"

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@LMichk @QuetzaIc0atl moins importunés par d'autres gens qu'ils méprisent, comme tu dis

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@LMichk @QuetzaIc0atl Ça me semble donner une définition à laquelle j'adhère plus : ma définition du Bien c'est en effet que chacun puisse poursuivre sa propre vision du bien (ce qui implique beaucoup d'autres choses). Les "libéraux" en France me semblent juste vouloir payer moins d'impôts, ou être

[Sam @TAMMYSZN]

“You have this concession, it’s clear to everybody, that aggregate production functions are not well founded in theory…We’re going to move away from this question of whether or not you could define this aggregate capital stock, you can’t: they came to this answer.” - Farhi

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@FoncelJerome @chambergeot17 Oui une promo en dessous de la mienne, je ne dis pas qu'il est bête, mais si être admis à l'X suffisait à justifier d'être parachuté pdg de hublot...

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@PHactNeutre btw toujours les problèmes de l'aggrégation. Tu décris un prix parisien j'imagine, donc ce qu'il faudrait faire c'est peut-être reprendre ces chiffres là mais en faisant le calcul pour Paris seulement. Par contre je ne suis pas convaincu que ça change beaucoup en effet

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@DonVianna @mean_field_zane my strategy too https://t.co/W3cYKAymMN

but I do wonder how I would actually compute things if I was dropped on a desert island without anything but pen and paper

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@EvarixGaulois @mean_field_zane I guess if I really had to I'd use prime factorisation of the nearest integer and the series expansion of log(1+x) but you'd have to give me a couple of days :p

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@IvanWerning @farmerrf @QuetzaIc0atl @hidetomitanaka @guido_lorenzoni but I mean, I insist that I find this a cool paper and that I hope the messages were not taken bad

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@IvanWerning @farmerrf @QuetzaIc0atl @hidetomitanaka @guido_lorenzoni model more realistic at each step, but I am personally not convinced that it's possible to proceed perturbatively in this, because I think these logical inconsistencies mean that there is no "continuity" across these model specifications in general

[Lönnrot @drmtgr]

@EvarixGaulois @mean_field_zane I guess if I really had to I'd use prime factorisation of the nearest integer and the series expansion of log(1+x) but you'd have to give me a couple of days :p