Dhawal Shah

Augment Wealthtec .Systematic investments thru data science. Macro view. Technical chartist
Startup, Invest

Fintech and Angel investor

[Reflection🪩 @0xReflection]

SpaceX valuation - $1.8 trillion
Meta valuation - $1.4 trillion

SpaceX revenue - $18 billion
Meta revenue - $210 billion

You know who the exit liquidity is, right?

[Reflection🪩 @0xReflection]

Are you scared?

$BTC

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@DEBU_NEOGI Chikna debo

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@madeehamedia @CNBCTV18Live @CNBCTV18News Welcome to India

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@patrick_oshag Love it

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

https://t.co/tNVUUXA1Ly

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy:

"We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%.

If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years.

Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP.

10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect.

In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country.

And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008.

The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows.

So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now.

Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Rules I built a career and a fortune on.

[Drew Crawford @drewcrawford_]

https://t.co/foNpox4agn

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

“People always forget that 50% of a stock’s move is the overall market, 30% is the industry group, and then maybe 20% is the extra alpha from stock picking. And stock picking is full of macro bets. When an equity guy is playing airlines, he’s making an embedded macro call on oil.”

— Stanley Druckenmiller

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@nikhilkamathcio Yes we got older wiser and grey lol

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@SamitVartak Forward looking earning for next 2 qtr are going to be different than your assessment based on past. This situation has not emerged in last 10 years. Try to look at data during lat crude oil situation. Impact will be more on small and mid. Most of the company will shut operatio

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@VijayKedia1 Everyone knows this. But no one talks about the savings for rainy day. Your daily household can be run on your dividend ,cash in bank . Why not tell people to save for rainy days and have 20 percent in fixed return for such scenarios. ..gyan does't work practical soln does

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@abhishekcjain Aarti industries long
Fujiyama solar

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@brahmaninara @naralokesh Respect sir. Ur machine

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@brahmaninara @businessline Tk U brakhmani. I am based in HK. Keen to meet the mgmt of heritage

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Global hedge funds purchased a record amount of Asian stocks in the 5 days ending Thursday.

This includes emerging and developed Asian stock markets.

Volumes were more than 2 TIMES the average seen last year.

Long buys drove the move, outnumbering short covering by a ratio of 8.4 to 1.

Overall, hedge funds were net buyers of global stocks last week for the first time in 3 weeks, with emerging markets seeing the most inflows.

Technology, industrials, consumer staples, and materials saw the most demand.

Institutional investors are piling into emerging markets at a record pace.

[বাঙালি ভদ্রলোক @Probasibangali]

23 years old. Raised by a single mother who depended entirely on him. On 3rd February, his life was brutally cut short. A Scorpio car, allegedly driven by a 19-year-old boy who did not even have a driving license.
As a parent I can feel the pain.

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@Rahul_J_Mathur How

[Venu @Venu_7_]

Top Hedge Fund Buys (Recent 13F Filings)

Fund name: Duquesne - Stan Druckenmiller
buys: $XLF, $RSP, $EWZ, $EWZ calls, $GOOGL

Fund name: Appaloosa -David Tepper
buys: $MU, $EWY, $META, $GOOG, $OC, $MU calls​

Fund name: Pershing Square
buys: $META, $AMZN

Fund name: Viking Global
buys: $GOOGL, $AMZN, $ICE, $DKS, $TMO​

Fund name: Third Point
buys: $UNP, $CMG, $CEG, $DHR, $BABA, $SPOT​

Fund name: Whale Rock
buys: $GOOGL, $SNDK, $CVNA, $TTMI, $FROG, $MTSI, $WLTH

Fund name: Kora Management
buys: $GGAL, $KSPI, $MELI, $NBIS, $SE

Top hedge funds are rotating into big tech, semis, financials, and emerging markets.

Key trends:
- Heavy concentration in $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META
- Strong conviction in semis: $MU, $SNDK, $MTSI
- EM exposure rising: $EWZ, $EWY, $MELI, $SE, $GGAL
- Select high-conviction compounders: $CMG, $TMO, $DHR

This is where institutional money is flowing.

[Dhawal Shah @dshaw2973]

@ActusDei Pls help me add to WhatsApp group