David Miller

Economist, was once called 'Little Shaq' by a Division 1 basketball player, strong opinions on defining the Midwest; Opinions here my own not the Fed System's

[QJE @QJEHarvard]

#QJE Aug 2025, #6, “A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations,” by Bassetto and Miller (@dsmintex): https://t.co/vAAw9OVf5x

[David Miller @dsmintex]

The paper is a warning: the lack of connection between government debt and deficits and inflation may not continue forever, and when the connection comes, the results are sudden.

[David Miller @dsmintex]

Why doesn’t news about government debt and deficits usually matter much for inflation? If you look at the data in advanced countries, there’s very little connection, yet models such as the FTPL imply there should be one.

[QJE @QJEHarvard]

Recently accepted by #QJE, “A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations,” by Bassetto and Miller (@dsmintex): https://t.co/vAAw9OVf5x

[David Miller @dsmintex]

There’s even a region of multiple equilibria. You can’t judge whether debt is informationally sensitive or not based only on the fundamentals.

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@dandolfa @JohnHCochrane A lot easier to estimate the NPV of surpluses backing short-term debt than long-term. Ideally, no one does so, but more difficult is better for a safe asset.

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@dandolfa @JohnHCochrane I have a (draft of a) theory paper on this: a debt crisis in a safe-asset currency, using an analogy to the Gorton-Holmstrom debt work, "A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations and Currency Crises" https://t.co/1le5yj8s56

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@BYCTOM College football internet posting hype video 2020 https://t.co/ff5B2hC41T

[Tom Mars @TomMarsLaw]

Big 10 FOIA Update: This letter was emailed to Purdue earlier today, and they have acknowledged receipt of this more targeted request. Similar letters are being sent to the other public universities in the Big 10.

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@BYCTOM Can use as plot for sequel to https://t.co/n3Www5YgW0

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@BYCTOM Grave Digger has a more fascinating story than even you could write https://t.co/JiU7UNGenh

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@BYCTOM really captures the whole experience: the NIT, tied late with a MAC team, the half-empty stands, books

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@BYCTOM https://t.co/6Ta46KKggR The indignity when NU is your best win, and not a 'quality opponent'.

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@matt_levine San Francisco street imbroglio sounds a lot like the Posner Weyl plan for private property.

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@DanielKayHertz Things have improved slightly https://t.co/LtRnjJ2Cuq

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@BYCTOM Does last night balance the Collins family's full court pass karmic ledger for the 1972 Olympics Final?

[David Miller @dsmintex]

@DIRECTVNowHelp Unable to watch this weekend, channels cutting out every few minutes yesterday, why did I prepay for no service?