Dubs

TMT L/S analyst in my day job... moonlight in macro / other sectors in my PA

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@pandawatch88 Damn. Prescient

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@MoatlessCapital Why not? Didn’t they aggressively shrink useful life from decades down to 5-10 years?

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@adcha91 @SMalikjo @taranvirkaonke @rish_mister Good point on real vs nominal

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

Some of my local friends - esp those not in finance and less savvy about investing - they’re ok with the current net yields as that means after the down payment outlay, rent is enough to cover the mortgage and any expenses. So they view it as a savings vehicle that they only pay once, and “the tenant is paying my mortgage down and I’ll get it free and clear in 30 years”

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@taranvirkaonke Second one is gonna be massive. They took over the old Transformers restaurant which is two floors. I took this video recently

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@taranvirkaonke Ah yes

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@TheLongHappy Why not just Mandarin Oriental? That seems like it has the most upside of any of the Jardine stocks… looking to double hotel count and their new building in CWB if sold could be their entire market cap

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@pernasresearch Yes

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@ValuePraya @RecoveryTrade I guess the main difference is Best Mart is food / drinks which have more barriers to entry from CN ecomm?

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@ValuePraya @RecoveryTrade @ValuePraya do you have any idea why Best Mart is outperforming IH? Don’t the two have similar biz models - my impression is both are mostly stranded goods resellers?

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

A friend of mine just talked to the co last week. They’re still saying that Pop Mart is a small contributor. I don’t think anything fundamental has changed. We saw a buysider circulate notes among some WeChat groups… think put the stock on some ppl’s radar that it’s just a very cheap stock. Pockets of the market trades on themes - new consumption etc. Dream probably getting grouped into another way to play Pop Mart

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@optionsly Speaking of which, is long AMZN into earnings the pain trade here? Feel like nobody wants to take guidance risk

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@optionsly Yeah. The other thought is that take rate businesses benefit from inflation… this is great for the likes of AMZN 3P… should mostly offset 1P headwinds, which in itself is a near term but not a long term problem

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@phil_hk Most likely that market segment is too small to move the needle. But just a thought

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@phil_hk I haven’t looked at the underlying breakdown, but I wonder how much of this was $3-4M properties. Recall that they were previously charging stamp duties on $3-4M properties and took those away at the end of Feb

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

@LowAlphaHighVol @TheLongHappy https://t.co/BNXBfCI4DW

[Chinese demographics🇨🇳 @mi233695]

Growth rate of no.of births 2024 of the 24 Chinese provinces which had published its demographic stats.
I will post a renewed version of all provinces when all of them punished their birth numbers.

[Dubs @dubsinvesting]

Looks like they changed their fiscal year definition. So that +45% yoy appears to be CY2024 vs 9 months ended 12/31/2023. The real comparable number is +8%. Store count grew 6%. SSS grew 2%. That’s excellent when HK retail sales was down -7%. I think they may be the only retailer with positive growth in HK in 2024?