Duncan Espiga

Ideas sobre estrategia, liderazgo, innovación y el futuro

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

A Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv. Once again, no early warning from our partners. The main target was energy infrastructure, specifically CHPP-4. Unfortunately, it was hit. A residential building was also damaged, and rescuers are currently putting out a fire there. Our systems detected these missiles only when they were already virtually on approach to Kyiv. CHPP-4 is one of Kyiv’s key energy facilities.

According to our intelligence, the Russians are preparing further ballistic missile launches. The facts show that the Russians do not consider themselves bound by what the President of the United States said. Ukraine supported an energy ceasefire. Russia is targeting yet another power plant and the lives of our people.

And this is absolutely unjust: when they are destroying our energy infrastructure, and Ukraine is not even receiving early warnings about ballistic missile launches. It is important that the world does not stay silent about this. And it is important that the United States really see what is happening and who is responsible for this war continuing.

Please stay safe tonight and tomorrow. We are working to replenish our air defenses with anti-ballistic missiles.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am a member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

There are five of us. Five people, appointed by a parliament most of the planet could not find on a map, who decide, once a year, which human being the world has agreed to call good.

I know. I know. I think about it on the tram.

We meet in a building on Henrik Ibsens gate, a street named after a man who wrote almost exclusively about people discovering they are frauds, which nobody on the committee finds funny except me. There is a room with a long table and the portraits of the dead laureates looking down, Mandela, the Dalai Lama, a great many earnest men in spectacles, and one portrait we do not discuss, which is Kissinger, 1973, awarded while the bombs were still falling, after which two of our predecessors resigned and the satirist Tom Lehrer said political satire was now obsolete. We keep him on the wall. A reminder. Every family has the uncle.

It is October in Oslo, which means the sun gives up around four in the afternoon like a civil servant, and it rains the particular Norwegian rain that isn’t quite falling, just hanging there, judging you. I arrive with wet shoes. I always arrive with wet shoes. There is coffee, because this is Norway and there is always coffee, we drink more of it per person than almost anyone alive, and someone’s wife has sent kanelboller, the cinnamon buns, and we sit, five Norwegians, damp, caffeinated, sugared, and we decide the moral standing of the entire species.

Let me tell you how it actually works, because the world imagines a cathedral and it is, I promise you, a book club with a mandate.

287 nominations this year. 208 people, 79 organizations. Anyone can nominate, that’s the secret nobody understands: a professor, a parliamentarian, a former laureate, so the “nominee” list is meaningless, it’s a suggestion box, and every autumn some congressman nominates his own golden retriever and the press writes “SHORTLISTED.” Nobody is shortlisted. There is no short list the public ever sees. There is us, and the coffee, and the rain, and the portraits, and a Norwegian stubbornness that is older than the prize itself.

We read reports. The institute’s advisers write them, thick dull documents, and we argue. Our chairman told the BBC once that in the final meeting “there is a high temperature.” High temperature, for a Norwegian, means someone slightly raised an eyebrow and then apologized for it. We don’t do high temperature. We do a long silence, and then Kristin says “well,” and everyone knows exactly what “well” meant, and it’s settled. That’s our shouting. “Well.” You’d have to be raised here to hear the violence in it.

Now. This year. I will not say the name, because we never say the name, but you know the name.

A certain head of state wanted this prize the way a child wants a thing in a shop window, which is to say loudly, and in public, and with the full belief that wanting it was itself the argument. He said he deserved it. He said he’d ended eight wars, a number that grew most times he said it, like a fish. He had other heads of state phone us. Israel’s prime minister posted it on the internet, “Give him the Nobel.” The leaders of Cambodia and Pakistan announced they’d nominated him, as though announcing it were part of it, as though we tally mentions. A man flew around the globe collecting endorsements for a Norwegian committee the way you’d collect signatures for a petition to the council about a noisy dog.

And here, uff da, is the detail I treasure, the one that makes me smile into my coffee. The nomination deadline is the 31st of January. He took office on the 20th. So for all the phone calls, all the posts, all the gilded lobbying, the only nominations that could possibly count for this year’s prize were filed in the first eleven days of his term, before he had, by his own arithmetic, ended a single one of the eight wars. He campaigned all year for a prize whose window had shut while he was still hanging up his coat. We didn’t have to reject him. The calendar did. We just watched. Norwegians are very good at watching. We have long winters.

People think we sit there weighing his deeds. We don’t. That’s the thing I can’t make the world understand. We’re not grading his homework. We don’t owe anyone the prize for a ceasefire, however real, however loud the announcement. “He made peace” is not a sentence that ends in a medal, the way he believes it does, the way he believes every good thing ends in his name on it. The will of a dead Swede says the prize goes to whoever did the most for fraternity between nations. A dead Swede, I should add, who made his entire fortune inventing dynamite and selling arms, and spent his last years horrified at his own obituary, which called him a merchant of death, and so bought his way to immortality as a man of peace. The whole prize is one guilty arms dealer’s attempt to launder his name. We are, all of us, administering a dead man’s public relations. I find this clarifying. It keeps me humble. It should keep everyone humble, and it keeps, by my count, no one humble at all.

So who did we give it to?

An eighty-five-year-old woman. A judge. Born in Durban, under apartheid, granddaughter of a Tamil man who came to South Africa as indentured labor, a bus driver’s daughter from the poor Indian quarter, who became the first non-white woman to run a law practice in her province, who defended Mandela’s people when defending them was dangerous, who sat on the Rwanda tribunal and the court at the Hague, and who, at eighty-five, is right now a judge weighing whether a genocide is a genocide. When we told the world, our chairman said the rule of law “underpins the system we have set up to ensure peace,” and that “peace requires justice.” She wasn’t even in Oslo. She was in Nuremberg. In courtroom 600. The actual room where they tried the Nazis. You cannot stage that. God staged that, and God, it turns out, is a better satirist than any of us.

She did not phone us. She did not post. No prime minister demanded it for her on the internet. She had, as far as our deliberations are concerned, the one qualification the loud man could never manufacture, which is that she wanted the work and not the medal. The medal finds those people. It flees the ones who chase it. This is not a rule we wrote. It’s just the only pattern the hundred-odd years of our mistakes has ever shown.

The reaction from across the ocean was immediate. His spokesman posted that we “place politics over peace.” Ja. Perhaps. We’re five damp pensioners in a rainy city; of course it’s political, it was always political, it was political when we gave it to a sitting American president nine months into his first term for the promise of things he had not yet done, and we have been quietly embarrassed about that one for fifteen years, so believe me, we had a particular reason this year to prefer a woman with fifty years of verdicts behind her over a man with eight wars in front of him and a deadline already behind him.

Here is what he will never understand, the thing I’d tell him on the tram if he ever took one. We are the one prize he cannot buy, cannot post his way to, cannot have a friendly dictator phone in for him. Not because we’re incorruptible, nei, we’re as vain and wrong and human as the portraits on our wall. But because the entire point of the thing, the only power a small cold country’s book club has ever held, is that it goes to the person not performing the wanting. The moment you demand it, you’ve proven you don’t understand what it’s for, and proving that is itself the disqualification. He ran the most expensive campaign in the history of the prize and the campaign was the reason. He was never losing to Navi Pillay. He was losing to the concept.

It’s dark now. Four o’clock dark. The buns are gone. Kristin said “well” an hour ago and we all went home. I’m on the tram with my wet shoes, and somewhere across the water a very powerful man is explaining to a camera that the prize is rigged, that we’re corrupt, that he’ll win it next year, and he genuinely might, we’re only five idiots and we’ve been wrong before, Kissinger is still on the wall.

But not this year. This year an old woman in Nuremberg, in the room where the law once stared down the exact kind of man who thinks wanting a thing loudly enough should make it his, got a phone call she didn’t ask for.

That’s the job. We don’t reward the man who ends the war and announces it.

We reward the woman who spent fifty years deciding what a war was.

He’ll never see the difference. That’s rather the whole point of him.

Takk for i dag. I have to change trams.

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

It's all been bullshit. All of it. Diesel, energy deals, peace negotiations, everything between Trump Co. and Putin's mafia is a charade. All they're doing is laundering money and trying to lift sanctions. It's all they care about and all they know how to do.

[Ruth Ben-Ghiat @ruthbenghiat]

Historian of fascism here. This is an escalation of an attempt to normalize extreme violence, ritualize violence, militarize the country, and make violence entertaining so when they ask you to commit violence in their name, you will be ready.

[Ron Filipkowski @RonFilipkowski]

This is completely outrageous and disgusting. This must immediately be blocked by Congress and Trump should be impeached for this. The US is now funding Putin’s war machine as he murders civilians including children. We are lost as a country.

[BlueDream @58bugeye]

Does the Department of War bird resemble anything you’ve seen before?

[Liam Nissan™ @theliamnissan]

A plague that can kill you in 24 hours is rapidly spreading in Russia right now but don't worry folks, Donald Trump eliminated the Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense, and Elon Musk defunded the CDC

[Varun Mayya @waiting4_asi]

I've done a complete U-turn on my opinion on open source AI. We should be careful (and probably disallow release) of models on par with current open source Astra/Opus level models.

AI is now reverse engineering games from binaries and remaking them. Reverse engineering games is a very hard problem. If this is possible then reverse engineering banking software, ID systems (Aadhaar), flights, etc is possible too. A game ships its binary to every player. Bank and Aadhaar backends are protected by servers, but it's unlikely the security teams at these are smarter than advanced AI that can do this to games.

We are protected rn because a Claude will refuse to tick "I'm not a robot" on websites. When OSS models don't respect that, we have a looming cybersecurity problem. Apologies I didn't see this earlier.

[Daractenus @Daractenus]

Misspelling the name of your own country in a document about super intelligence is an impressive feat.

[Marcel Mordezki @marcel_mordezki]

Países fuertemente digitalizados como Uruguay deben rápidamente hacer la transición a modelos de único punto de contacto e IA detrás ordenando los workflows. Si USA lo puede hacer, con miles de agencias, para Uy debería ser un proyecto corto e inmediato.

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

Jack Smith: "Our investigation developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in serious crimes against our nation ... rather than accept his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, President Trump engaged in a criminal scheme to overturn the results and prevent the lawful transfer of power"

[World of Statistics @stats_feed]

Time to drive 10 km:

10 km/h — 60 min
20 km/h — 30 min
30 km/h — 20 min
40 km/h — 15 min
50 km/h — 12 min
60 km/h — 10 min
70 km/h — 8:34
80 km/h — 7:30
90 km/h — 6:40
100 km/h — 6:00
110 km/h — 5:27
120 km/h — 5:00
130 km/h — 4:37

Going from 10 to 20 saves 30 minutes. Going from 120 to 130 saves 23 seconds.

[Steven Lubka ☀️ @DzambhalaHODL]

We did it, we finally did it

[Juez Central @Juezcentral]

¿Y quien dice que sólo los niños sueñan con salir a la cancha con sus ídolos?

El Betis saltó hoy al terreno de juego con los 11 socios más antiguos. Los tipazos no paran de hablar y de sonreír.

El sueño del abuelo🫶

[Pedro Bordaberry @PedroBordaberry]

El día que ratificamos en el Parlamento el Acuerdo Mercosur–Unión Europea, destaqué la importancia de considerar seriamente un mayor acercamiento de Uruguay a la UE.

Hoy, la propuesta que se concreta en la UE de convertir a Canadá en el primer “miembro asociado” abre una posibilidad geopolítica inédita, sin impedimentos para que Uruguay también aspire a explorarla.

Uruguay debe seguir el camino de Canadá y ser el primer país de América Latina en impulsar este mismo paso geopolítico.

Enviaremos a la cancillería y presidencia la petición de que se inicie ese camino

https://t.co/DyoSqigrFj

[Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum]

Your regular reminder: If the Russians stop fighting, the war ends. If the Ukrainians stop fighting, their land will be occupied, their leaders will be killed, their history and language will be erased, their children will be kidnapped to serve Russia.

[Dario Amodei @DarioAmodei]

We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.

Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.

You can read the full post here: https://t.co/OGyPb7yaYt

[Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari @RepYassAnsari]

Tragically, when I first saw the movie “Don’t Look Up” in 2021, it struck a chord with me. I felt viscerally that humans would find ourselves in a comparable place one day - and soon.

If you haven’t seen the movie, I’d recommend it. A quick recap: Humans were explicitly warned that a comet that could destroy Earth was heading rapidly toward us. And instead of doing anything to stop it, the president, elected leaders and billionaire CEOs just spewed some bullshit about all the “jobs the comet would create.” The media treated the comet as casual entertainment. The public was split and the entire thing gets politicized. The movie ends with nearly all of human life wiped out.

Just about a year ago I had the opportunity to join a bipartisan freshman class breakfast with Sam Altman. I was shocked when he said to us, “in 18 months, I’ll trust artificial superintelligence to run my company better than I can.” I regret I didn’t engage more on this issue immediately.

Now here we are - it’s 2026 and engineers at the world’s leading AI companies are telling us that there is a >10% chance that artificial intelligence could kill all humans. They’re not mincing their words in the slightest. Not because of present day AI capabilities, but because it is evolving so exponentially that we could be in a doomsday scenario in a year. One year.

This is fucking serious. We need to halt new advanced AI development. We need guardrails, transparency and emergency powers. We need more employees at these companies to speak out publicly, loudly and fearlessly until everyone is forced to listen. We need the media to be covering this 24/7 until elected officials are forced to act. We need the Trump Administration to treat this with the urgency it deserves. We need the ability to shut an AI model off if there’s a credible threat to human life. The list goes on - and we don’t even know what the full list entails because this is all happening so fast. That’s why we need urgent, bipartisan public hearings and committees dedicated to developing and enacting solutions expeditiously.

This isn’t partisan. Let’s stop with the bullshit and come together for the sake of our shared humanity. I’m a 34-year-old Democratic Congresswoman, and I’d like to live to see my late 30s. I know my Republican colleagues want the same for themselves and their loved ones.

None of us can afford to be complacent about this any longer.

[Molly Kinder @Mollykinder]

This a.m., I walked my two youngest kids (ages 7 and 4) to school. I held their little hands as we crossed streets, and gave my youngest a giant hug at his PreK4 classroom door.

Then, after walking a block towards home, I opened this app to a terrifying stream of tweets.

Of course, I have heard about "alignment" and "AI safety" and "x risk" concerns for years. I took these concerns at face value, especially when I heard them directly from folks at the labs working closest with the technology. And I was grateful so many smart people are working on them. And that's about it. (My work focuses on AI's impact on jobs.)

But something has shifted, dramatically, for me in the last few weeks. Between the Hugging Face incident, the damning independent @METR_Evals reports that followed, and the alarming chorus of calls (pleas? shouts? SOS signals?) from inside the labs that we are careening toward potential catastrophe, all of this has made me feel, viscerally, how truly dangerous this moment is.

Clearly I am not alone in this light bulb moment. It is one thing for someone in a tropical climate to try and conceptualize snow. It is another thing entirely to be knee deep in it, frozen down to your toes. Somehow hearing the details of the HF incident felt to me more like trudging through snow than theorizing about a possible blizzard; it really hit home.

Which is why, standing a block from my children's elementary school in Capitol Hill this morning, I felt sick to my stomach reading my phone.

I kept going back to @EvanHub's > 0.1 risk of AI killing us all. TEN PERCENT. *Greater* than ten percent. (To be fair to him, he was clear his worry isn't today's models, but what comes next.)

As a parent, it is extraordinary the lengths I will go to keep my children safe against lethal risks with infinitesimal chances of happening.

Bike to school? My children *must* wear a helmet. A national study found 2 bicycle-related deaths per million children <16 in states with helmet laws, vs 2.5 per million in states without. So: 0.000002. More than half the states passed a law over that.

When I was pregnant, I religiously avoided soft cheese, hyper aware of the risks of listeria, even as @ProfEmilyOster's fabulous books walked me through the actual math. The joint FDA/FSIS risk assessment puts the odds of listeriosis at roughly one in 5 million per serving of soft cheese. 0.0000002.

This morning, as I microwaved oatmeal for my kids' breakfast, I made sure I avoided a plastic bowl, to avoid some future cancer risks or something else we'll discover plastic causes.

As a parent, I will go to extraordinary lengths to keep my kids' safe. Because that is literally my number one job as a parent.

And yet, here I am, outside my kids' school this morning, scrolling through tweet after tweet about the AI arms race, the blistering pace of technological progress, the bee-line for trillion dollar IPOs, and our professed (confessed?) inability to make sure this exceedingly capable technology we are racing to create and unleash into the world won't escape our control and destroy us. Or, more bluntly, kill our children.

To be sure, we are tied in knots trying to resolve the game theory dynamics with China, and there are all sorts of competitive pressures and unresolved tensions. But OBVIOUSLY, we need a proactive plan, with real coordination, effective regulation, and an ability to do what my 11-year-old bluntly stated as the clear solution if we are at risk of serious harm: just turn it off.

We also need to figure out better ways of talking about this with the American public, outside of the AI-pilled Twitterverse.

I just polled my college roommates, sisters, book club, mom friends, none of whom are anywhere close to the AI conversation. Suffice to say, this AI safety conversation has *not* entered the mainstream. Most people I pinged are not following it closely, beyond several listening to @kevinroose on the Daily a few days ago. The newspaper headlines don't speak to them, and they aren't clicking. It seems like a niche AI issue. Others said it all sounded hyperbolic, Y2K all over again.

One friend said bluntly, "people get data centers and jobs. They like to get paid and have water."

Even those who tuned it to the Daily episode found the issue hard to understand, and overwhelming to wrap their heads around. Terms like "superintelligence" and "alignment" are getting lost on people. Several people told me the paper clip example used everyday language people can actually understand. Another friend said she has never seen a clear explanation of *how* AI could kill us all.

Here's my two cents. I think these issues are *exceedingly* important and hugely consequential to literally every person in this country. We need an actual plan, and we need policymakers to step up, asap. Right now, I hear only crickets in DC, where I live.

For that to happen, this needs to be a kitchen table conversation, not just an x debate among AI insiders who speak in technical terms that leave normal people behind. This moment demands brilliant communicators -- journalists, experts, activists, concerned citizens, writers, researchers, filmmakers, creatives-- who can relate this to people in ways they can wrap their heads around, who can connect this to what matters in their lives (ahem, keeping their kids alive!), and who can lay out practical steps that policymakers can do to safeguard humanity.

In other words, this can't just be talked about on @dwarkesh_sp, it needs to be everywhere, from the View to People Magazine.

And it needs to be tackled here, in my town, in Washington, DC. One of the streets I crossed this morning with my kids on the way to school was East Capital. I told my kids to look left, and see if they could spot the capital building.

There were too many trees this morning blocking the view.

[a16z @a16z]

Ben Horowitz on the oldest law in startups, and why the industry no longer has to obey it:

"The one thing we all knew in startup world is that if I have a two-year lead on you and you try to catch me by hiring 1,000 engineers, you're gonna wreck your company."

"That never works. It's a Mythical Man-Month. Nine women can't have a baby in a month. That's it. That never works."

"Okay, now that works. But it's not hiring 1,000 engineers. It's taking $3 billion and lighting up a magnificent cluster, and then all of a sudden, whatever, Grok can come out of nowhere and, oh, all of a sudden it's real."

"You can throw money at the problem, and you can throw money at almost any problem, and that works. That is just completely different than anything we've ever lived through. By the way, we're all psychologically adjusting to this."

@bhorowitz @eriktorenberg