David Wantuck

[David Wantuck @dwantuck]

Danielle, I’m a fan of your Fed takes and you’re probably right that Powell’s staying on as governor is smart for covering his own legal backside right now. But calling it “protecting his integrity” and “intention not to interfere” thing feels off after you straight-up said last year he was “playing politics” on the labor market data and shirking duty for political reasons. Isn’t this more about him looking out for himself than saving the institution?

[Mr. VIX @yieldsearcher]

Why the 1970s oil shocks were stagflationary?

Nominal wages rose 6-9% even with high UR (6-8%) during the era.

Strong unions and COLA kept wages tracking inflation, creating a vicious cycle.

We do not have that kind of labor market today. Wage growth is lowest since COVID.

[David Wantuck @dwantuck]

@HedgeyeRJM I see you have a good amount of allocation to SMH, semiconductors. What part of Hedgeye process is pointing you to that?

[David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage. @PolarityRadio]

@deerpointmacro @davevermilion @DavidDTawil
@hendry_hugh @GrantCardone

The historic mispositioning won’t be unwound profitably by them

It’s pure alpha for us.

The 13 trillion mortgages model is locally stable and starting to imploded in our favor.

Let’s be correctly positioned

They can’t modify their mispositioning fast enough to be violently repositioned later

[dMacro/dBS @dMacro_dBS]

This rally and the bull flattening across the US rate curve have been absolutely brutal for most macro pods and the usual sellside monkeys like GS, Citadel Securities, etc… cant remember the last time consensus ex ante market views were this out of sync vs actual price action.

[David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage. @PolarityRadio]

We’re gonna flatten and we’re gonna accelerate housing and we’re gonna be completely under 6% on mortgages this quarter and we’re gonna be 550 on the fixed and five on the floating next corner and the doll is gonna be go up in that environment and mortgages get the money back from all this nonsense, gold and silver which I was long but now I don’t think he could be long that stuff anymore. I think volatility and gold and silver are gonna melt like Bitcoin volatility, and that money is coming into mortgages and low beta stocks.

[David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage. @PolarityRadio]

Look at how much weaker the charts are on a weekly basis as we are shorter in term, but as we propagate out, we’re rolling out the curve and we have more structural damage and people will not be able to stay short with the calls. The fed will need to cut if they don’t the dollar will start to melt up.

[David Wantuck @dwantuck]

Investors will buy the preferreds and short the regular stock as a hedge. That will drop the $/share, providing a significant discount on the stock relative to the value of the bitcoin. That will force them to start selling bitcoin, and if Saylor doesn't want to do that, they will drive him out.

[E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. @RealEJAntoni]

People dismissing this reality with, “but prices are still high” fundamentally misunderstand what inflation is: the RATE at which prices are rising; inflation being zero doesn’t mean prices are zero, but that prices are no longer increasing:

[David Wantuck @dwantuck]

@yieldsearcher What do you think about this from the AP the last few days?

[David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage. @PolarityRadio]

Bill Pulte is doubling Trumps 200 billion buy of mortgages

They can have 450 billion total

[David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage. @PolarityRadio]

Despite all of the noise and all of the gold and all of the silver and all of the Bitcoin and all the hysteria of the curves continued to flatten

And these curves, particularly the 510s are singling mortgage activities is picking up and that is going to end up strengthening the dollar and it’s not gonna be good for tech or these anti-metals trades. It takes time but the slow grind of the curve is gonna run over everyone, including Druckenmiller and Roubini and Fink and Diamond.

They all believe we should have a steepener

They all believe the 10 year note yield was just gonna go off to the sky.

I have been saying growth and yields are not the same and don’t confuse the two and I expect lower bond yields lower, no yields and a much flatter curve and that’s great for Main Street. Great for mortgages.

[Mr. VIX @yieldsearcher]

I think the mkt is grossly underestimating the firepower potential coming from the GSEs.

Most of their balance-sheet constraints are governed by the senior pref agreement that can be amended by the US Treasury at will.

Obama’s legacy weapon about to be directed at the bond mkt.

[Alex Epstein @AlexEpstein]

Even BlackRock CEO Larry Fink now admits that “transitioning” to solar and wind will cause a global power shortage—after spending years pressuring companies to do exactly that.

The "transition" he advanced has already sabotaged our power supply and raised our electricity bills.

[Blue Horseshoe @BlueHorse88]

U.S. Treasuries are the core global collateral asset, used to margin derivatives, repo markets, FX swaps, and leveraged portfolios worldwide.

If Europe or China attempted to sell Treasuries at scale, they wouldn’t be punishing the U.S.,they would destabilise their own financial systems first. Their banks, central banks, and sovereign funds rely on Treasuries as high-quality liquid assets. Dumping them would blow out haircuts, tighten domestic liquidity, and force emergency intervention at home.

Mechanically, when Treasuries are sold, the seller receives USD. That means the initial effect is a spike in the dollar, not a collapse, as global demand for dollar liquidity surges during stress. This is the same dynamic seen in every major crisis.

Only after that, if those dollars were aggressively converted into other currencies, would the USD weaken structurally. But that scenario itself is self-defeating: a collapsing dollar would make U.S. goods extremely cheap and European goods extremely expensive, rapidly compressing the U.S. trade deficit and blowing out foreign export models.

In other words, trade imbalances would be “resolved” but only through violent price adjustment, global recession, broken supply chains, and financial deleveraging. No central bank would allow this to happen.

And this ignores the strategic reality: the global economy is still deeply dependent on U.S. technology, cloud infrastructure, software platforms, payment rails, and capital markets. You can’t dump the balance sheet asset while remaining embedded in the operating system.

So the idea that selling U.S. Treasuries is a weapon misunderstands the system.

[David Wantuck @dwantuck]

I don’t know if I would give him hero status. Calling inflation transitory in 21-22 until inflation finally reached 9.1%. Last year, continuing to quote the inflation boogie man and being data dependent when inflation rate was not increasing and tariffs. Then, increasing mortgage rate spreads by letting the MBS rolloff, and also continuing to steepen the yield curve. Just great for the common man. One could argue that they haven’t been too independent with bias towards the current administration.

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Reupping this

[David Wantuck @dwantuck]

@SantiagoAuFund Agree with your emoji. Giving up their collateral to make a point, yes, nuclear option to themselves.