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[Teslaconomics @Teslaconomics]

I've been getting so many questions about what I think will happen on SpaceX IPO day. Let me tell you the truth... no one knows. But I bet it's going to be super exciting.

What often happens with highly anticipated IPOs is that excitement drives the stock up quickly in the beginning. Everyone wants in, headlines are everywhere, and FOMO takes over. Expectations get stretched, and the stock can often end up running ahead of the actual business.

Then, the hard part comes.

The same people who were excited at the top start questioning everything during the first big pullback. Some sell out of frustration, others lose patience, and sentiment swings from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism.

Meanwhile, the SpaceX team keeps executing.

Historically, many great companies spend years in a quiet accumulation phase after its IPO. The stock goes nowhere, interest fades, and most people stop paying attention. That's often when smart long-term investors quietly build positions while the fundamentals continue to improve.

Eventually, if the business delivers, institutions step in. Pension funds, mutual funds, endowments, and large investors begin allocating serious capital. That's when a new phase starts, and the stock gets re-rated based on what the company has actually become rather than what people hoped it would become.

But the question I'm asking myself is will SpaceX follow this exact path?

Nobody knows. It could even rocket to $3-4T on day 1 and never look back as well...

But if history is any guide, I wouldn't be surprised to see early hype, a painful shakeout, a long period of boredom, and then a much bigger move years later as Starlink, launch services, AI infrastructure, and Mars-related missions become a reality.

Always remember, the biggest gains are often made by the people who can stay focused on the business while everyone else is focused on the stock price. The stock and the business are two different animals, and if you can stay laser focused on the long-term and ignore the noise, I believe the ones that hold long-term will be rewarded tremendously.

[WhaleTwits @WhaleTwits]

🚨 WARNING: THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CRASH GLOBAL MARKETS!!

Most investors don't see what's coming.

Read this before buying stocks.

3 AI and space giants are going public in the same year with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion:

1. The biggest IPO wave in decades

- SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history, raising up to $75 billion($SPCX will debut on Nasdaq on June 12)

- OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1 and is targeting a valuation above $1 trillion

- Anthropic is also considering a public listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion

2. The S&P 500 is currently being carried mostly by the Mag 7 and AI-related stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.), which make up roughly 33-35% of the index

These 3 IPO could create a massive liquidity drain as investors move $75-200+ billion into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares

Funds and investors would likely sell existing positions in today's market leaders to free up capital, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google among the first likely to feel the pressure

On top of that, the S&P 500 has so far resisted fast-tracking these unprofitable giants into the index, meaning the capital rotation effect could put even more pressure on existing index components

3. History shows a concerning pattern

At the peak of every major market bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of "can't lose" companies:

- The Roaring Twenties
- The Nifty Fifty era
- Japan's 1980s asset bubble
- The Dot-Com Bubble of 1999-2000

Today, capital concentration in the tech sector is once again near historical extremes

4. After an IPO, early investors get the opportunity to lock in profits

Historically, lock-up expirations have often increased selling pressure on newly public stocks

During the Dot-Com era, even some of the highest-quality companies suffered massive drawdowns:

- Amazon: -95%
- Microsoft: -65%
- Intel: -80%
- Oracle: -80%
- Yahoo: -97%

A great business doesn't protect investors from overvaluation

IPOs at these kinds of valuations, while many AI companies are still deeply unprofitable, are often a sign of market euphoria

I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan

Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below

The next phase is gonna be very important