Edoardo Acabbi

Assistant Professor of Econ at UMannheim. Harvard alumn. Juve, Varese Basket and Celtics fan.

[Edoardo Acabbi @eacabbi]

https://t.co/cMb4PlZvqu

Paese tetraedrico che boccia qualsiasi riforma sulla responsabilità dei magistrati ma chiama miss keta in piazza a parlare di Enzo Tortora

[Cane della VIOLESIA 🐕🇲🇾🟣 @Moussoligno]

Non riesce a lavorare perché fa troppo caldo.

"Eh ma non é italiano"...chiedete scusa

[CEPR @cepr_org]

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP21393
Sorting into Entrepreneurial Teams
Edoardo Acabbi @EconUniMannheim, Andrea Alati @bankofengland, Luca Mazzone @UMontreal, Marta Morazzoni @ucl @TheIFS
https://t.co/6VqMizICl3
#CEPR_MG #EconTwitter

[Moritz Kuhn @kuhnmo]

Very happy to have Boragan Aruoba in our Macro @EPoS224 Seminar @EconUniMannheim
"Monetary Policy Without Borrowing: Capacity Constraints and Lumpy Investment"
@TertiltMichele @klaus_adam @tom_krebs_ @MatthiasMeier1 @az_miren @AnaMoreMaldo @MinkiKim_Econ @eacabbi @AndrejMijakovic

[Il Grande Flagello @grande_flagello]

"Complimenti alla FIT, non solo per Jannik ma per gli altri incredibili giocatori che avete. Non posso dire lo stesso per il calcio al momento. Scusate ma avete perso con la Norvegia e dobbiamo fare un po' di battute" #IBI26

[Sylvain Catherine @sc_cath]

Reminder that among the many issues with this graph, the silliest methodological one is that many social transfers register as increasing the tax rate at the lower end of the income distribution.

This is why nowadays the same methodology gives a tax rate above 100% for the poor in France.

In the case of the US, programs like the earned income tax credit (EITC) and child tax credit (CTC), which reduce the tax bill of the poor, register as doing the opposite under this methodology.

Why? Essentially because the credits are not netted out of the tax bill, while the sales tax on the increased consumption they fund is added to it. The denominator, meanwhile, is pre-tax, pre-transfer income.

The more you receive transfers from the government, the highest will be the cost of sales tax relative to your pre-transfer income.

If you apply this methodology to retirees, their tax rate can also be extremely high since they pay income tax and sales taxes on their social security benefits, which is not part of their pre-transfer income at the denominator.

A more complicated issue is the inclusion of payroll taxes that fund Social Security and represent the biggest chunk of taxes on the lower half of the distribution.

When workers (employer share is allocated to workers on this graph) pay Social Security taxes, they accumulate individualized claims to future Social Security benefits. The true tax is the differential between the actuarial value of the claim obtained and the tax paid to obtain it. Here the entire tax is counted without regard for the claim.

If you take these graphs seriously, you'd therefore conclude that privatizing Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid would make the fiscal system much more progressive since it would massively lower taxes in the bottom 80%.

Of course, that's a silly conclusion. But at the end of the day, this is what this graph is about: welfare state denialism.

[Edoardo Acabbi @eacabbi]

@MattF01Airbus @lufthansa @Condor @easyJet @Lufthansa_DE From what I could check, the cancellation was issued place _before_ the plane took off from Marseille to get to FCO. So even there, is it so clear it's propagation downstream? Not an expert, but I am skeptical

[Edoardo Acabbi @eacabbi]

Given the Hormuz chaos, it is worth pointing out airlines will try to look for petty excuses to leave you stranded. Last night @lufthansa canceled my lh242 flight from Fra to Rome due to extreme weather conditions. Funny that @Condor and @easyJet did not encounter them

[Edoardo Acabbi @eacabbi]

@MattF01Airbus @lufthansa @Condor @easyJet @Lufthansa_DE Thanks for the info. We will see what they claim. If it had been on any peropheral terminal, that would for sure be an excuse....but FRA is THE hub of the company...we'll see

[Edoardo Acabbi @eacabbi]

Congrats man!

[Chris Moser @economoser]

I’m super excited about all the amazing growth initiatives at @JohnsHopkins, which I’ll be a part of starting next year. Thank you to @Francesco_Bia and the whole group! More great things to come 💫

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

When I write about the long-run consequences of population decline, I’ve noticed that most people cannot grasp what a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.1 means. Many of my readers look at 1.1 and treat it as not that different from 2.1. This is the wrong way to think about it: TFRs are like interest rates; they compound over time.

To make the point, I ran the following simulation. I built the population structure of a country with 1 million inhabitants, a TFR of 2.1 (just at replacement level), and a life expectancy of 85 (with realistic survival rates). Thus, this country has a stationary population over time.

I then hit this country with a reduction in the TFR from 2.1 to 1.1. The reduction, which takes 25 years to complete, is similar in size and duration to what we’ve seen in many advanced and middle-income economies. It is also concentrated among younger women, with fertility postponed to later years. I plot the initial, middle, and final TFR in the top-left panel of the figure.

I then simulate the next 200 years of this population. By the year 200, the original 1 million has fallen to 54,900, a 95.5% reduction. The top-right panel illustrates this evolution. This is not a minor adjustment: it means closing 95 of every 100 universities, hospitals, and shops. Since the population is likely to concentrate in a few remaining cities, nearly the whole country becomes a population desert.

The bottom two panels show the population structure and pyramids. The population stabilizes at a median age of 61 and an old-age dependency ratio of 95.21%.

You might argue that TFR is unlikely to remain at 1.1 for so long because higher-fertility subgroups (e.g., the highly religious) would grow as a share of the population. Fair enough. But I am not offering this simulation as a forecast. I am illustrating how, at current rates, countries of 50 million people (roughly South Korea or Spain) would become countries of 2.75 million, ignoring immigration.

These are the issues for the next century.

[Edoardo Acabbi @eacabbi]

Daily reminder che @fattoquotidiano andrebbe cestinato nel 99.9% dei casi.

[Ultimora.net @ultimoranet]

Grazia a Minetti, i nuovi approfondimenti delle autorità giudiziarie hanno smontato le ipotesi di irregolarità avanzate dal Fatto Quotidiano:

📍 La procedura di adozione è stata svolta correttamente da Minetti e dal compagno Cipriani. Fu lo stesso INAU, l'istituto che gestisce le adozioni in Uruguay, a fare causa ai genitori biologici, a chiederne la decadenza della responsabilità genitoriale e a sostenere l'adozione
📍 La tutrice legale del bambino espresse parere favorevole all'adozione dopo varie perizie psicologiche e aggiornamenti sulle condizioni di salute del minore
📍 Il trasferimento del bambino negli Stati Uniti con Minetti e Cipriani per un intervento medico avvenne con autorizzazione dell'INAU
📍 Non risultano collegamenti tra l'adozione e la morte della tutrice legale, avvenuta insieme al marito in un incendio in Uruguay, che le autorità ritengono probabilmente causato da un incidente domestico
📍 A carico di Minetti e Cipriani non risultano precedenti, denunce o indagini per sfruttamento o favoreggiamento della prostituzione né in Uruguay né in Spagna

[Carlo Calenda @CarloCalenda]

Politici contrari al TAP quando combattevo al Ministero per fare il TAP:
tutti i 5S, Meloni, Salvini, Berlusconi, D’Alema, tutta SEL, Emiliano, Bonelli, Fratoianni.
Politici contrari al TAP oggi: 0.
Una parola di scuse? Non pervenuta. Questa è l’Italia populista. L’abbiamo votata massicciamente. Se oggi non avessimo il TAP saremmo al disastro. Forse è una storia da ricordare.

[Moritz Kuhn @kuhnmo]

We are very happy to have @M_De_Nardi this week in our Macro @EPoS224 Seminar at @EconUniMannheim presenting
"Why do households saver and work?"
@TertiltMichele @klaus_adam @tom_krebs_ @MatthiasMeier1 @az_miren @AnaMoreMaldo @MinkiKim_Econ @eacabbi @AndrejMijakovic

[Andrea Gilli @aa_gilli]

Believe it or not, this is how soccer works in Italy. Fiorentina was relegated to the third/fourth league but promote back to the second or first league due to “historical” merits.

Inter Milan used fake passports, cooked the books, spied on players and adversaries, exerted pressures on referees: it should have been relegated to the fifth or sixth league, it was awarded two championships despite coming third and by a former board member, then president of the Italian soccer championship���s main sponsor, a company owned by a shareholder and sponsor of Inter Milan.

[Cecilia Sala @ceciliasala]

La Repubblica islamica ha ucciso più iraniani in due giorni di quanti ne abbiano uccisi le bombe israeliane e americane in 40, ma ha vinto la guerra dei meme quindi tutto ok

[Filippo Facci @FilippoFacci1]

https://t.co/6sMqn3y44r

[Moritz Kuhn @kuhnmo]

We are very happy to have @Basile_G this week in our Macro @EPoS224 Seminar at @EconUniMannheim with
"The EU Miracle: When 75 Million Reach High Income"
@TertiltMichele @klaus_adam @tom_krebs_ @MatthiasMeier1 @az_miren @AnaMoreMaldo @MinkiKim_Econ @eacabbi @AndrejMijakovic

[Richard Stengel @stengel]

You know what would be amazing if Vance and his team can negotiate an agreement where Iran doesn't enrich above 3.67% (far below weapons grade); gets rid of 98% of its stockpile of enriched uranium; has weekly inspections by the IAEA; keeps the straits open without charging anyone; and commits to all of this for at least ten years. Oh, yeah, that was the Obama Iran deal.

[Pontus Rendahl @pontus_rendahl]

Europä Digitalintelligenz is coming for you openAI/anthropic et concortes!

Can't wait for the Swedish language release