Ahmet Ergurum

Foreign Policy, International Security - AI/Chips. Political Science PhD @UWM, BA/MA @BilkentIRDept. Awards: @theIHS, @ICPSR (x2), Wilder Crane

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Excited to share my new article, “The Transition from Quantitative to Computational Methods in Foreign Policy Analysis,” now in the Special Issue on “The State of the Art in FPA.” @uidergisi.
https://t.co/kASdX712aR

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

1.33 xG

[Opta Analyst @OptaAnalyst]

🇦🇺 Australia 2-0 Türkiye 🇹🇷

Australia were organised in the back and scored on the break to frustrate Türkiye into a tournament-high 30 shots that didn't result in much.

Could they do the same to the United States to take control of Group D?

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

The report draws attention to the role of time to power beyond classical factors like cheap power. A one year delay can cost a 100 MW US AI data center more than $ 500M.
https://t.co/tcJkzLb5ry

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

New @CEIPTechProgram report implies that middle powers can gain leverage in the AI compute race if they reduce permitting delays, grid queues and infrastructure related constraints.

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

The emerging AI battlespace: Counter-AI threats to AI-powered satellite remote sensing analysis @BulletinAtomic
https://t.co/JxyHbOqJX7

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

4/ This should also remind us that semiconductor self-sufficiency is also tied to experience that compounds slowly in fabs, apart from equipment, subsidies, state policy, etc. If mid-career engineers keep leaving, China’s chipmaking gap may become harder to close.

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

In addition to export controls and fab buildout, another important issue is the workforce. SMIC is much younger than TSMC and UMC.
-China’s chipmaking workforce is young and keeps leaving
https://t.co/2666HDqvZY

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

3/ The retention gap is notable. From 2016–2024, SMIC’s average annual turnover was 16.5%, compared with 4.9% at TSMC and 11.0% at UMC. At matched corporate ages, SMIC’s turnover was roughly twice TSMC’s.

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Can AI Predict a Nuclear War Before It Happens?
https://t.co/CtCJEuSjcU

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Infrastructure accounts for 59% of tracked projects, compared with 34% for models and 7% for data. On the hardware side, US firms remain crucial. @CNAStech https://t.co/ocKOYZSUvD

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

The Sovereign AI Index shows a significant rise in national AI projects, with activity concentrated in infrastructure. The Middle East and East Asia lead govt-backed AI investment, while most sovereign AI efforts depend on US vendors across chips, cloud and models. @CNAStech

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

In a forthcoming Springer book chapter, I examine how Eastern Mediterranean states discuss drones, AI, and cyber issues in UN General Assembly and Security Council speeches.

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Governing AI in the Shadow of Giants: Korea’s Strategic Response to Great Power AI Competition
https://t.co/0OXtVAtNj8

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Check out the new AI and Democratic Values Index 2026, which provides the most comprehensive review of AI policies and practices worldwide. Glad to contribute to the upcoming 2027 Index report. @theCAIDP
https://t.co/8PxVgGeIqW

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Glad to present my co-authored articles on AI policies of middle powers, network analysis of nuclear weapons proliferation and deliver a talk on drones in the East Med region at a roundtable at the International Studies Association Annual Conference in Ohio @isanet. #ISA2026

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

"The growing demand for data centers arising from AI is creating immediate pressure on electricity grids. Demand for data centers globally could triple by 2030." @AtlanticCouncil
https://t.co/Y3ZKkavpM6

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Crises can reveal vulnerabilities. The UAE received considerable investments from tech giants, such as Microsoft's $1.5b for G42. Data centers should be treated like other critical infrastructure that has to keep working during a crisis and be under an air defense umbrella.

[Chris McGuire @ChrisRMcGuire]

Reuters reports that an object struck an AWS data center in the UAE, causing a fire and shutting it down. Assuming this was an Iranian drone strike, it is the first time a commercial data center was physically targeted in a conflict. It won’t be the last.

https://t.co/4b7DHklwoU

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Similarly, Collins argues "In the 20th century, oil refineries required perimeter fences. In the 21st century, AI clusters may require interceptors." Also repair speed may be worse for data centers than energy infrastructure.
https://t.co/vrlmeZsKm8

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Iranian strikes test the Gulf’s trillion-dollar AI dream
https://t.co/zcv3ZYi6XH

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Korean Firms Activate Contingency Plans Amid Iran Strikes
https://t.co/IgXtaiutql

[Ahmet Ergurum @eahmetir]

Tech projects are also important for global partners and they closely monitor the situation. For example Samsung and SK Hynix will supply memory chips for OpenAI's Stargate project in the UAE and South Korean president agreed to help build a power grid for the project in 2025.

[Dr. Cinzia Bianco @Cinzia_Bianco]

Amazon temporarily shuts down its data center in UAE after being hit. The UAE strongly believes in AI and badly wants to host AI data centers, which are rare and extremely costly to build. This escalation is problematic in that way, too.