Elizabeth Below

chicago. data librarian. knowledge systems, weather, human-ai dynamics, whiskey. hire me

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

I was impacted by the @stripe RIF on 11/3/22 and still looking for my next role in talent intel, exec search, recruiting ops, knowledge mgmt, etc. My background isn’t typical and I don’t think my next role will be posted, so I hope this lil 🧵 reaches the right audience… 1/

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

hunter must be exhausted!

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@dieworkwear What an unexpected Friday treat

[Vincent Ledvina @Vincent_Ledvina]

Unfortunately, I have a work day that starts at 7 am tomorrow, but I will leave you all with some thoughts to consider for tonight as the Bz is still rammed north at nearly +20 nT:

1. There could be multiple CMEs, so just because you don't like this one doesn't mean things won't change. Even a bad CME core could get disrupted by a new impact. Our solid north Bz could spontaneously flip south on its own or because a new CME could impact. One way to tell if the core of this CMe has arrived or if another CME is coming is by using EPAM data. Typically, you will see those low energy particles plummet once the main ejecta has arrived. If it keeps rising after an impact, chances are something MORE is on the way. Watching EPAM is like watching the stock market, though... it does bounce around a lot! Don't get fooled by one little tick up or down, watch for trends over tens of minutes to hours.

2. Don't use the Kp or OVATION or whatever aurora % chance map your app is giving you to chase tonight. Use the resources we've talked about: GOES Mag, !!Webcams!!, solar wind, etc. If you see GOES Mag super charged up, chances are a substorm is going to follow, and you should stay out as late as you can. Think a substorm just occured? Typical cadence is one substorm every 2-3 hours (rarely shorter than 1 hour spacing), so keep that in mind. If you see auroral beads, head out because something crazy is probably going to happen in the sky (a substorm)!

3. Remember that conditions can change on a dime during CMEs, especially during the sheath, and especially because we are supposed to have three CMEs impacting us during this event (high probability for the M9.5 and X1, maybe medium-low for the M7.8). CME sandwiches are tricky to forecast, as we have seen, and they are tricky to predict! It's best to just go with the flow and keep your core principles in the back of your mind:

- we prefer 30-60 min sustained Bz to charge up a substorm
- use aurora webcams as ground-truth for what is ACTUALLY happening.
- GOES Mag can help you see Earth's magnetic shield charging up and releasing energy

4. Stay safe! If you are feeling too tired to drive, go home. Do not risk your life or others' lives for the aurora. There will be more shows. Driving tired is like driving intoxicated. Call a cab or just sleep in your car. If you are ready for action tonight, make sure you have enough water and snacks to sustain what could be a long night of auroral displays.

5. If the Bz stays north consistently like this, it is just delaying the aurora from ramping up. It's like constantly resetting the countdown timer, so just know that as we continue into the night that if Bz does not shape up, it could be over for those of you in the central-southern U.S. It takes time for the aurora to really get going after the magnetosphere has been stone cold like it was before the CME impact and like it is now. If it was in the freezer before, it's on dry ice now. A -20 Bz blow torch will thaw it out, but it will take maybe an hour to get the auroral oval moving further south and for substorms to start charging. Be aware of this delay if the Bz suddenly switches south.

Good night! Thanks for all the supportive comments on my posts today, this is a great community you are all a part of. Thanks for making it a positive space. I'm glad we can all enjoy following space weather together!

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@Vincent_Ledvina Excellent post as always, will share with my little aurora chasing group! 💜

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@benspringwater 👀

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@halroxdynasty @waif0000 False, VBAC is possible and like 75% who attempt it are successful.

[Jon Hansen @JonHansenTalks]

Tonight is the last pre-8p sunset until August 9th.

Tomorrow, Chicago starts 89 nights where the sun is up past 8pm and dusk lasts past 8:30p.

While we still gain more daylight incrementally for another 40 days -- these are the glory days, people. Soak it in! Enjoy!

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@ChicagoParks @chicago_birder I tried to fill out name ideas but what are we supposed to put in the first form question?!

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@alexisohanian Same

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@mothmanidk @north0fnorth could’ve been thin but tries way way too hard

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@north0fnorth @rsomething so I agree Chicago should be the top of your list but to be fair we’ve got lots of ai advertising. (I don’t mind it tho)

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@karpathy @yacineMTB Does it get more amplified the further you both reference this thread? 🤯

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@graceclarke This is great! I've found these kind of guides are the most useful for newbies who want to get technical (not those looking for plug and play)

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@iamjasonlevin @katedeyneka lol i love your site but you need a visitor counter and guestbook!!!

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@WindyCityWxMan hi winds, bye winds

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@ImTheBreed That hail was NUTS! Sounded like gun shots 😳

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@OfficialRezz feel better, your set saturday was unreal!

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@blakeir heh @patrickc does (did?) this rapid fire during weekly stripe fireside calls.

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

hi, hello, this is me. still trying to figure out how to “market” myself while inbetween jobs since these characteristics come off super fluffy on paper. but my flavor of tacit knowledge mgmt, human-centered process mapping, and scrappiness are kinda bullseye (imho)

[Matt Stockton @mstockton]

I agree with this fully. There is a totally new role emerging here. It's a net new role, and requires a somewhat unique set of skills.

This is a nascent idea / stream of conciousness, but the reason I know it exists is because this is essentially what I am doing right now for a handful of companies.

Skills that are useful for this role:
- Systems thinking
- Being good at interviewing people to understand what they do and asking good questions.
- Building diagrams / mental models of how work flows within an organization
- Being on the leading edge of agentic coding platforms (e.g. Claude Code)
- Experimentation mindset
- Asking questions until you fully understand the job to be done
- Realizing that sometimes the job to be done is to completely change the job to be done
- Communicating across different functions, but in a way that forces changes versus build alignment
- Courage to try new things

Lots of other stuff I missed, but if you blur your eyes, these traits all kind of distill down to:
- curiosity
- agency
- willingness to learn new thing
- courage to fundamentally change a lot of things that people just assume are the right way to do things, but no longer hold.

You need to be willing to burn a lot of things down, in a way that gets folks on the ship and makes them better.

It's an amazing time to be building things, and if this vaguely sounds like you --- go for it. Nothing is figured out yet, and you are the one that can help figure it all out.

[Elizabeth Below @ebelow]

@aidanshandle WHOA WHOA this is amazing!!!