marketstudent

[shirish @shiri_shh]

TL;DR: Owning assets is no longer optional.

You have about 3 to 4 years to stack wealth and build real distribution.

Once AI takes over half of cognitive work, selling your hours on a laptop won't protect you. In an AI economy, pure salaries get crushed while asset owners capture the entire upside.

Own equity, businesses, or real-world reach before the window shuts.

[Neil Sethi NEW account @neilsethinew]

Willie Delwiche notes in his excellent substack (https://t.co/c8qKYeqUbD):

"If you are looking for a single and straightforward rule of thumb, we can focus on the 200-day average for the S&P 500.

"If it is rising (i.e. higher than it was 10 days ago), odds favor further gains from stocks (8.5% annualized return). If it is falling, keeping your powder dry has little opportunity cost and can help you sleep better at night (0.1% annualized return).

"Almost all of the net gains from stocks over the past quarter century have come when the 200-day average has been rising."

[Nicholas Mugalli @RealNickMugalli]

This is my absolute favorite CNBC moment of all time. He never gave a shit even when it wasn’t popular…

Absolute legend! Happy retirement .@RickSantelli 🐐

[marketstudent @edy2049]

Summer trading volume dry up. Barely any name worth trading at all. The only decent idea was pressing #copper like $FCX but I already pressed pre-breakout.

[HF_Trader @HF_Trader]

Unpopular result from 24 months of MBO NQ research: standalone orderflow has zero edge at any timescale a retail trader can reach.

Not "small edge." Zero. 522 tests, 47 systems, ten bar sizes, every construction the gurus teach. Median effect: 0.015 ATR. Statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip, and below costs before slippage.

Why? Price is set BY flow. Dealers condition quotes on the imbalance as it arrives. What you see on the DOM is already in the price you'd pay.

The tape is real. The prediction isn't.

Keep dreamin!

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

If you trade commodities, why even waste cycles arguing over hyperscaler CAPEX ROIs?

Whether the AI narrative is pure vaporware or a generational revolution, one thing is glaringly obvious. The physical buildout of data centers and grid infrastructure isn't stopping anytime soon.

Copper already possessed a bulletproof structural bull thesis on its own—all this AI CAPEX is just turbocharging the narrative into overdrive.

Send a thank-you note to Big Tech for spraying liquidity like there's no tomorrow. At the end of the day, that CAPEX flows straight into the copper miners' bottom lines.

#copper $hbm $tgb

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

Global commodities CTA positioning. Positioning vs Macro tailwind.

#oott #gold #copper

[Steven Spencer @sspencer_smb]

Trading Lesson: Re-rating to the downside $DKS
When a growth story breaks, P/E compression can be brutal. Here’s how the $DKS gap played out and what $LULU taught us. https://t.co/rMLnRuoIE2

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

$FCX Remains as a breakaway gap.

[shorty @simpletrader77]

Treasury just doubled long-bond buybacks ($2B → $4B per op, 10-30yr sector) after the 30yr hit 5.3% , highest since 2007.
No yield target announced. But in auction terms?
A large resting bid just stepped into the long end, funded by issuing bills.
That’s not liquidity support. That’s price control without the peg.

When a standing buyer absorbs offers at the lows, price discovery doesn’t stop — it just migrates. Watch where value builds next: the dollar and gold are already voting.
Soft YCC has begun. The market knows it even if nobody will say it.

$Es_F

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

yes

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

We were off by just thiiiiiiiiis much

[Cline @cline]

We are making the updated DeepSeek V4-Flash 0731 free in Cline.

This is the first flash model we've found performs at SOTA levels, and are excited for you to feel the new frontier.

1. npm i -g cline
2. Open /settings > Cline provider
3. Select deepseek-v4-flash

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

There we go: Hyperscaler CDS just hit record wides, led by a disintegrating ORCL and SPCX. And today the "supersafe" names finally ripped.

Bond market is done funding this negative ROI lunacy

[Luckshury @Luckshuryy]

TRADING CHEATSHEETS 🧵

1/ bottoming patterns

[marketstudent @edy2049]

Tokenmaxxing is already discouraged and token spend limit will be implemented by more companies. There will be a FUD of AI capex collapse.

[Mo Shaikh 🇺🇸 @Moshaikh]

Citadel, is one of the most significant hedge funds, and they just dropped tokenomics …

And it’s not what you would have expected

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

I’m speaking in hindsight, but hindsight is a great way to learn lessons for the future.

Just remember: when gold was running, every single analyst on Wall Street was telling you $6,000, $7,000, even $8,000 gold. When crude oil was at $55-$60, every single one of them was telling you it’s going below $50.

Nobody knows anything.

All predictions are essentially worthless and probably cause more damage than benefit. The reason people love predictions is because they make us feel better. We wake up in the morning, hear someone tell us what will happen next, and get the comforting illusion that everything is under control.

It rarely is.

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

Too many signs to ignore.
Never seen this.

Biggest IPO of decades, Brokers bending rules, Institutions insane positivity.

[marketstudent @edy2049]

A prudent decision by S&P.

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Wow, the S&P Dow Jones Indices has just officially announced that they will NOT be changing their inclusion rules to make it easier for “MegaCap” companies (such as @SpaceX) to be fast-tracked into the S&P 500.

Their reasoning:
"S&P DJI determined that exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization. The decision not to adopt the proposed exceptions preserves core index principles by maintaining consistent application of these key requirements. Although there may be trade-offs between strict adherence to these eligibility requirements and broad representativeness, the current methodology provides substantial market coverage and sector balance. As a result, the indices can continue to meet their stated objectives while preserving their role as representative and investable benchmarks for the U.S. equity market.

No changes will be made to the eligibility criteria including financial viability screens, seasoning period, or minimum IWF, for the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, or S&P SmallCap 600 as a result of the S&P Dow Jones Indices consultation on the treatment of MegaCap companies. Accordingly, there will be no changes to existing methodology for this index family."

This means that the earliest @SpaceX could be eligible to be added to the S&P 500 would now be June 2027.

The requirements that will now remain in place are:
• No changes to S&P 500 eligibility rules for mega-cap companies.
• Mega-cap companies will still need to wait 12 months after their IPO before being considered for S&P 500 inclusion.
• S&P will not waive profitability requirements for mega-cap companies. The company must have positive GAAP net income in the most recent quarter, and the sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters.
• S&P will not waive minimum public float requirements for mega-cap companies. At least 10% of a company's shares must be publicly tradable ("free float").

The S&P rejected proposals that would have:
• Reduced the IPO seasoning period from 12 months to 6 months
• Waived profitability requirements
• Waived minimum public float requirements

[J Law @JLawStock]

After a market correction is over, don’t be too quick to sell the stocks that rally first and show the strongest relative strength.

That is not always “risk management.”

In many cases, it actually increases the risk of missing a potentially massive winner.

Even today, I still make this mistake sometimes.

Why?

Because the stocks that recover first after a correction are often not just random bounce plays.

They are usually the names where money is flowing back first.

They show relative strength before the crowd fully realizes the market has turned.

They may be the next leaders of the new uptrend.

Real risk management is not selling a strong stock simply because it has gone up.

Real risk management is managing position size, knowing your invalidation level, and watching whether the price action actually breaks down.

If a stock remains strong, money is still flowing in, and the fundamentals and narrative are still intact, selling too early can actually be poor risk management.

So the key is not “never sell.”

The key is:

Don’t sell the strongest market leaders too easily just because you are afraid of giving back existing profits.

Many times, what truly changes your trading return curve is not taking small profits again and again.

It is whether you can sit through the right leaders long enough during a real market uptrend.