Simon Engelkes

Energy & Raw Materials Policy Advisor @kasonline / former Director @kas_palestine & +8 years Middle East 🇹🇳🇱🇧🇸🇾🇮🇶🇮🇷🇸🇦🇯🇴 / Abu Ava / tweets my own.

[Auslandsinformationen @auslandsinfo]

Die Straße von #Hormus zeigt, wie verwundbar die Weltwirtschaft geworden ist: #Handelsrouten, #Rohstoffe und Lieferketten werden zunehmend zu geopolitischen Machtinstrumenten. Welche Folgen hat das für Europa und die #Globalisierung? 🎧🌍https://t.co/xRHBOb2nSY

[Simon Engelkes @englks]

Vor 75 Jahren waren es Kohle & Stahl. Heute sind Schlüsselrohstoffe wie Dysprosium & Lithium Voraussetzung für Europas Industrie - nur liegen sie nicht in europäischer Hand. 97% der Bedarfe schwerer Seltener Erden kommen aus 🇨🇳. @AussenMinDE heute @KASonline #AdenauerKonferenz

[Auswärtiges Amt @AuswaertigesAmt]

Kohle und Stahl haben #Europa einst stark gemacht – getragen von der Idee, aus Konflikt Kooperation zu schaffen. Die Wirtschaft machte Europa groß und handlungsfähig. Dieser Grundsatz gilt damals wie heute.
- Rede von @AussenMinDE bei @KASonline 1/8

[Jonathan Karl @jonkarl]

This morning, I asked President Trump if he’s okay with the Iranians charging a toll for all ships that go through the Strait of Hormuz, he told me there may be a Joint US-Iran venture to charge tolls:

“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people.”

“It’s a beautiful thing”

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Incredible post, one for the record books.

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

QatarEnergy CEO: We may have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies to Italy, Belgium, Korea, and China.

[Idrees Ali @idreesali114]

WASHINGTON, March 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. may soon remove sanctions from Iranian oil that is stranded on tankers to help lift global supplies and reduce prices, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday.

[The Associated Press @AP]

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia said a drone hit the country’s SAMREF refinery in the port city of Yanbu on the Red Sea. https://t.co/qaNZIaY7Gw

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

Very, very bad news.
As I wrote in Material World, Ras Laffan is one of the most important industrial sites not just in the Gulf but in the world. LNG, helium, other products. Massive.
Whatever happens next, serious damage to this site could reverberate for months, maybe years.

[Vali Nasr @vali_nasr]

This could be beginning of the next cycle of escalation in the Persian Gulf, going beyond closing Straight of Hormuz to attacks on oil and gas fields and energy infrastructure which could only worsen the impact of war on energy prices

[Adam Tooze @adam_tooze]

Everyone is talking about energy and oil. Here is matching oil type, supplier and buyer as illustrated. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below.

[Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour]

Trump has given Israel roughly a week to show that it can bring home regime change in Iran. According to Kayhan London “Israeli micro-drones and UAVs began targeting IRGC, Basij, and Law Enforcement checkpoints in several cities including Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, and Shiraz.
“Under conditions where keeping streets under control is a key element for preserving the survival of the entire regime, targeting the suppressors at checkpoints is in fact a strike against the last protective shields of the Islamic Republic.”
The death toll is likely to be high. This is Netanyahu’s best and probably last chance to fulfil a decades long plan to destroy the regime. He knows he is working against a clock and the oil price.

[Financial Times @FT]

Three G7 countries, including the US, have expressed support for the idea, according to people familiar with the talks. The move comes as global oil prices have soared in recent days. https://t.co/DXHf0hszwR

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

To watch in the next 24 hours: Japan is on alert for a possible release of its strategic petroleum reserve, the world's 3rd largest (after China and US).

Tokyo may act alone, without US/IEA involvement.

The American SPR is very well known; so it's the Chinese -- but Japan has its own massive oil stockpile, split in 10 sites (ground tanks, underground tanks, floating tanks and rock caverns). In total, the governmet holds ~260m barrels (vs ~415m for the US).

Plus, Tokyo mandates private sector stockpiling, and it has joint agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait to store additional crude in the country. Those deals bring another ~178m barrels.

According to official data, Japan holds in total about 440 million barels in stockpile, enough for 204 days of its imports (most from the Middle Easts).

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

BREAKING: This is the 'most severe energy crisis since the 1970s', according to the Wall Street Journal.

[Gaurab Chakrabarti @Gaurab]

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 8 days. Everyone thinks this is about oil. This is about what oil becomes. 92% of the world's sulfur comes from refining oil and gas. Close the Strait of Hormuz and you don't just lose 20 million barrels of crude per day. You lose the feedstock for sulfuric acid, the single most produced chemical on Earth. Sulfuric acid is how we extract copper. It's how we extract cobalt. Without it, you can't make transformers, EV batteries, or the substrates inside every data center on the planet. One chemical, made from one feedstock, shipped through one chokepoint. The cascade goes further: Qatar ships 30% of Taiwan's liquefied natural gas through Hormuz. Taiwan has 11 days of reserves left. TSMC, the company that makes 90% of the world's advanced chips, draws 8.9% of Taiwan's total electricity. No gas, no power, no chips. Then food. 33% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer feedstock moves through the Strait. Half of all humans alive today exist because of synthetic nitrogen. Sulfur, semiconductors, food. That makes three supply chains, one 21-nautical-mile chokepoint, and zero domestic alternatives at scale.

[Charles Lister @Charles_Lister]

Extraordinary scenes from northern #Tehran tonight, where the Aqdasiyeh oil depot has been hit & completely engulfed in flames.

Apocalyptic — and more #Iran critical infrastructure destroyed beyond repair.

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

👀 Qatar's defense ministry says Iran targeted a power plant and a facility at its main LNG production site

Another sign (after the Ras Tanura attack in Saudi earlier) that Iran now seems to be aiming at critical infrastructure and energy-export facilities in the Gulf

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

🚨🚨🚨BREAKING: QatarEnergy stops LNG production

(... if Qatar has shut down all its LNG production -- 14 trains --, as the statement's wording suggests, that's roughly 20% of the world's output. As a single company, QatarEnergy is the world's largest LNG producer...)

[Jonathan Karl @jonkarl]

Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.

"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."