Evan Belkin

Atmospheric Sciences PhD Student @UAlbanyDAES | UAlbany Honors BS '24 |

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@WXmarcus Trust you me that I am sure a CIG2 was considered. CIG2 is roughly a 12% of an EF3+ tornado, while CIG1 is 6%. It's possible the confidence just wasn't there.

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@ColeWeather25 Congratulations, Cole! I am excited to welcome you to Albany in the fall!

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@krisbedka We've seen some evidence that the data got transmitted into the GFS, but can not say for sure 100%. I can tell you that the infrastructure is working is though. We released 9 dropsondes yesterday. Justin says to feel free to reach out to him with any other questions!

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

Proud to be forecasting for the NASA NURTURE Field Campaign, helping plan daily flight missions. The data we collect isn’t just for future research; it’s fed directly into weather models to improve forecasts, including this weekend’s potential winter storm!

[Tomer Burg @burgwx]

Following up from my discussion yesterday, the biggest uncertainty is in the exact evolution of the TPV emerging out of Canada:

- how quickly does the TPV become negatively tilted?
- how far south/west does this occur?

Broadly speaking, scenarios range from the following:

Scenario 1: More progressive and weaker TPV digs into the SE US and only becomes negatively tilted offshore, with a minor-moderate snow event over the Carolinas & heavy snow well offshore

Scenario 2: TPV is stronger and farther west, becoming negatively tilted over the SE US & forcing rapid cyclogenesis just off the Carolinas, with a major Carolinas/VA snowstorm and moderate snow farther up the coast as the decaying post-occlusion low tracks northeast

Scenario 3: TPV is even stronger and farther west, with the latitude of negative tilt shifted a bit north, favoring a major coastal snowstorm up to Maine primarily south/east of I-95 but possibly including the big cities

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@jaycordeira Bring this a little farther west and then I'd be happy!!

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

Ice Storm Warnings have been issued for the Adirondacks, St. Lawrence Valley, and Greens where the greatest ice accumulations are expected. Stay safe, everyone!

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

Very strong signal for impactful icing across much of the Northeast U.S. Locally, some of the highest impacts are forecast across the Adirondacks where the WSSI now has major impacts forecast. I wouldn't be surprised to see an Ice Storm Warning upgrade for the Adirondacks.

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

Very strong signal for impactful icing across much of the Northeast U.S. Locally, some of the highest impacts are forecast across the Adirondacks where the WSSI now has major impacts forecast. I wouldn't be surprised to see an Ice Storm Warning upgrade for the Adirondacks.

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

Another fascinating radar loop out of KBGM. One can see a clear distinction between the stratiform precip in central/eastern NY v.s. the convective precip farther south across eastern PA. 02z SPC mesoanalysis show elevated instability with pockets of MUCAPE > 100 J/kg across PA.

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

Interesting find is that KBUF Radar is reminiscent of a summer time MCV, perhaps in response to the progressive upper-level shortwave located on the edge of the ridge, i.e, a "ridge roller"! Can clearly see the dry slot as well, which could cut totals somewhat south of I-90...

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@wxkaitlynj Good luck NYC....
I think it will be tough to beat 3" and looks like a lot of sleet...

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@P_SimmsWX Not only that but the RRFS really struggled with this storm. It was too far south for several runs!

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@burgwx I like ensembles 27, 28, 34, 37, 39, and 50. Just sayin'!

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@jaycordeira FWIW, the 00z HREF mean is still 6-8” for the Cap Region. Certainly a lot of spread though across the individual CAMs. Certainly doesn't look as good as it did this morning...

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@jaycordeira Node 0!

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

And no, I didn't include the eye candy run of the NAM :)

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

It will be interesting to see how the Tues-Wed system ends up. IFS is the farthest southeast...

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@MikeMasco One needs to be very careful when analyzing this figure as the color bars are different for each NCEI plot. From a quick glance, some forecasts look quite poor, but are actually better than they appear!

[NWS Bay Area 🌉 @NWSBayArea]

With 0.08" of precipitation, San Francisco had the 8th wettest July on record (since 1849). Other NWS offices may find this funny.

[Evan Belkin @EvanBelkin]

@NickPBassill @accuweather Hmmm....I can only wonder where the models that AccuWeather used to predict the disastrous flooding came from 🤔🤔🤔