Ξlliott Fi₿onacci

Technical Analysis focused around Elliott Wave, Fibs & Geometry.

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

2 Years ago #Bitcoin made its low

Time for an update of the $BTC chart I made back than(see link)

#BTC still follows the grey 2015-2017 pattern more or less(notes on the chart)

Will it be a left or right translated cycle?

Nobody knows!

I think 60% odds for higher for longer

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

1 Year ago #Bitcoin made its low.

Time for an update of the $BTC chart I made back than (see link).

#BTC still follows the grey 2015-2017 pattern almost exactly.

Will the #Bitcoin price stay below ATH for another ≈12 month with a price of ≈$40k at the halving?

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

Looks like the rotation is setting up:

- BTC.D likely topped 🏔️

- TOTAL3/BTC likely bottomed 📈

- TOTAL3/ETH might dip a bit more ⚠️

→ Altseason brewing, but ETH leads first 🚀

What's your altseason watchlist?

#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins $BTC #BTC $ETH

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@TheRealPlanC https://t.co/zmC8opuk4C

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

Just some time fibs for $BTC

546 days till next #BTC halving

I like the time measurements more IF the low is in

From a price perspective a little bit lower ~82% would have been more convincing
But 78% is within my tolerance ☺️

But you can interpret that chart as you wish😉

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@TheRealPlanC That’s exactly how I see it too, psychology-wise.
Back in 2022 I was fully convinced of the 4-year cycle (see chart)
But once everyone follows the same playbook, markets usually flip the script. That’s why I think this cycle might bend the classic timeline
https://t.co/ADK1QRFeKN

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

$BTC Elliott Wave Roadmap
1️⃣ Wave 7 peaks when the monthly RSI hits the red line
2️⃣ Wave 8 = correction
3️⃣ Wave 9 = final blow-off top before the cycle ends
In 2017, this pattern played out perfectly
Right now, we’re closing in on that RSI trigger again
Or is this time different?

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@Darkfost_Coc Seems I haven’t managed to clearly explain why I used 9 waves for simplicity.
The 9-wave count is fully within Elliott Wave guidelines.
If other Elliotticians don’t chime in, I’m sure you’ll figure it out yourself in time.

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

$BTC Elliott Wave Roadmap
1️⃣ Wave 7 peaks when the monthly RSI hits the red line
2️⃣ Wave 8 = correction
3️⃣ Wave 9 = final blow-off top before the cycle ends
In 2017, this pattern played out perfectly
Right now, we’re closing in on that RSI trigger again
Or is this time different?

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

8 months later — still below the red line.
(see linked tweet below)

Same structure.
Same question:

Will $BTC reach the RSI trendline again — or is this time different?

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@Darkfost_Coc I’m not disagreeing with the 5 wave structure.
But on this macro count, we’re already in wave 7, which means it can’t be a “classic” 5-wave sequence anymore.
That’s exactly what Elliott described as an extended 5th – the larger 5th subdividing into 5 waves of similar size

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@eliaven_ Yes, it definitely will be – a “crash” to a level most would still call moon 😄

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@Darkfost_Coc Elliott himself noted that an extended impulse can subdivide into 9 waves (or 13) of similar size instead of 5 and both counts have the same technical meaning.

My chart is a count with an extended 5th wave

If that sounds strange, you probably haven’t dug deep enough into EW

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@PavleCYM I was fully on board with the 4-year cycle back in 2022 (see chart).
But once everyone knows the playbook, markets tend to change the script.
That’s one of a few reasons I think this run might bend the classic timeline a bit.

https://t.co/zmC8opuk4C

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

Just some time fibs for $BTC

546 days till next #BTC halving

I like the time measurements more IF the low is in

From a price perspective a little bit lower ~82% would have been more convincing
But 78% is within my tolerance ☺️

But you can interpret that chart as you wish😉

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@decodejar My original plan from Nov 2022 had the high in Q4 2025. Over the last few months I’ve tweaked it slightly – now leaning towards Q1–Q2 2026 for the high.
I’ll be watching your macro indicator closely😉

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@dt_perspective Glad you liked it! Appreciate the feedback 🙏

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@decodejar Glad we’re on the same page again 👍
Always respect your calls – you’re one of the best analysts on here.
When two chartists align, it’s either solid confirmation… or the perfect setup for the market to humble us 😄

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@PavleCYM Could be – Your analysis is as good as mine – nobody can predict the future, these are just educated guesses.
Let’s see how the RSI and structure plays out.

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@johnnyhc179 Wouldn’t bet on exact months yet – esp. for Wave 9.
But Q4 ‘25 for Wave 7 and Q1–Q2 ‘26 feels in the ballpark.

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

8 months later — still below the red line.
(see linked tweet below)

Same structure.
Same question:

Will $BTC reach the RSI trendline again — or is this time different?

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

When in doubt zoom out
Let´s see if/when Bitcoin reaches the red line on the 1M RSI
Same idea as in the linked $BTC tweet from a year ago
Or is this time different?
Will it under or overshoot the red line?

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@decodejar 420k meme top would be hilarious.
Just like 69k was last cycle. 😏

https://t.co/OAIgYLN4ya

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

2 Years ago #Bitcoin made its low

Time for an update of the $BTC chart I made back than(see link)

#BTC still follows the grey 2015-2017 pattern more or less(notes on the chart)

Will it be a left or right translated cycle?

Nobody knows!

I think 60% odds for higher for longer

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@XForceGlobal When in doubt, zoom out is great advice.
I have a similar but slightly different $BTC view.
It’s the same idea I’ve had over the last 2.5 years, and the price still follows the grey pattern I placed on the chart back then.

https://t.co/zmC8opuk4C

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

Just some time fibs for $BTC

546 days till next #BTC halving

I like the time measurements more IF the low is in

From a price perspective a little bit lower ~82% would have been more convincing
But 78% is within my tolerance ☺️

But you can interpret that chart as you wish😉

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@tradedevils $XMR was unbelievable over the past 3-4 years.
It felt like watching paint dry.🤣
I posted a few tweets during that time.

https://t.co/3i7dNJgN8Q

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

$XMR feels like watching paint dry

pic1: october 2021
pic2: march 2022
pic3: june 2022
pic4: feb 2023 (see linked tweet)
pic5: now

Will this range break up or down?

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

@decodejar 80% of people didn’t believe us in Nov. 2022 😂

https://t.co/zmC8opuk4C

[Ξlliott Fi₿onacci @ewfib]

Just some time fibs for $BTC

546 days till next #BTC halving

I like the time measurements more IF the low is in

From a price perspective a little bit lower ~82% would have been more convincing
But 78% is within my tolerance ☺️

But you can interpret that chart as you wish😉

[Kun @0x_Kun]

Dont tie your profile to a position you own

Once your profile and emotion gets tied to a position it becomes your identity and then it becomes personal

Once its personal you are no longer impartial from a critical thinking perspective and instead you see any negativity or positivity as a tie to your own value and self worth

When you then hear someone say "that project has X potential concerns" you dont hear the issues you hear in your mind "you are an idiot"

Similarly instead of thinking about both sides you will just like anything said thats positive and you become delusional as its success becomes tied to your self worth