Thought-provoking, perhaps controversial, and certainly worth reading!
"The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level" by John H. Cochrane.
https://t.co/ycEmT0PJkH
"Where do inflation and deflation ultimately come from? The fiscal theory of the price level offers a simple answer: Prices adjust so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of taxes less spending. Inflation breaks out when people don’t expect the government to fully repay its debts. The fiscal theory is well suited to today’s economy: Financial innovation undermines money demand, and central banks don’t control the money supply or aggressively change interest rates, invalidating classic theories, while large debts and deficits threaten inflation and constrain monetary policy. This book presents a comprehensive account of this important theory from one of its leading developers and advocates."
Thomas J. Sargent: "This book is the product of years of Cochrane’s groundbreaking research on interrelated topics central to modern macroeconomics and finance. In addition to providing stern but fair criticisms of a vast technical literature, Cochrane shows by example how enlightening good data, econometrics, and economic theory can be when in the right hands."
https://t.co/ycEmT0PJkH
Sun Oct 18
Does the tail wag the dog?
Hat-tip to @Signal_Sigma.
I looked at Andrei’s intriguing finding (his tweet below) ... but confined my analysis to QQQ. I wanted to see if I could I duplicate Andrei's finding, could quantify its frequency, and then wanted to look at Friday's potential signal.
Indeed, when GEX reaches extremely negative values and big buyers simultaneously step in through dark pools, QQQ has bounced.
See attached table. (Worth your time.)
Since 2022, only two cases (2024, 2025) when that confluence of indicators occurred. For each of those, an upside move in the Nasdaq followed ... greater than 5%, both at 10- and 20-days.
Friday (Oct 16) was the third such confluence.👇
Does the tail wag the dog?
Can heavy institutional buying and market maker positioning actually drive the market’s next move?
He says the name just fine when he’s begging the Qataris for a personal jet or the Saudis for funding for his son-in-law’s private equity firm.
Wonder what’s changed?
Step 1: Read the 3 Base Inputs from Your VolSignals Screen
Step 2: Convert the Straddle into the 1-Standard-Deviation Move
Step 3: Net the Market Maker Contracts at Each Strike
Step 4: Calculate Each Strike's Standard-Deviation Distance (z) from Spot
Step 5: Compute the Two Bell-Curve Multipliers
Step 6: Calculate GEX, CHEX, and VEX at Each Strike
Step 7: Sum the Strikes to Forecast the Morning & Afternoon Price Slope