when i was young, i thought it really weird that people didn't seem to learn from historical bubbles. now i understand that actually the serious players study past bubbles with extreme diligence, sparing no effort to gain an understanding of how to exit at the top
likewise if history on the global stage starts moving at a world historic pace, then by the very nature of the particulars, it would be certain streams within the asian american communities (perhaps insignificant now) that would have a major part to play
https://t.co/lQYSm9vwbw
this is most likely correct, but what's interesting is the low probability but high impact alternatives. think of it like the different endings of a light novel. assimilation is the Normal Ending, with a Good Ending version for integration into the upper middle class
Asian America has also fundamentally already reached its End Of History as well.
The vast majority, overwhelming majority I think, will just assimilate into the broader Americanized soup,
Wasians will largely just be a transient subway stop on the route to a new broader White mainstream majority. “Oh my great grandmother came from Taiwan, I love Chinese food!”
The few brave ones of them will return back to their homeland and largely reintegrate back, a part of a long lasting American diaspora class with residual links to America but firmly rooted in Asia.
In fifty years Asian Americans as a bloc will be completely irrelevant.
as long as that continues to be true, these communities will have proximity to certain happenings of History. for ex., if large scale space exploration really does happen in a few generations, then i would expect the asian communities of CA and TX to play a disproportionate role
and you might find that your own personal causes and values are no better served in this new frame as in the old, but somehow it opens up an avenue to ultimate power for a rival whose capabilities was completely beneath your consideration in the world-as-it-used-to-be
the key to keeping your equanimity during this era of escalating graft and grift is to realize that past a certain point up the ladder, the victims of today's unbelievably brazen swindles and grotesque power grabs are merely the beneficiaries of the last round of confidence games
but for the medium term, a lot of progress will look like successive bands of raiders capturing the emperor. they will continue to drive history until everyone else finally decides that the emperor is beyond saving and we should look elsewhere for the mandate of heaven
as a practical matter, dialecticism is to realize that these encompassing sets are not arbitrary. if you succeed in rejecting the current historical frame (not easy!) there are only a few natural places to draw the boundaries of the new encompassing frame
elon's "the most entertaining outcome is what will happen" and related memes like monkey's paw circles the judo like nature of high level gamesmanship. i now put some weight on the schizo theory that elements within the ai labs see nationalization as a plausible win condition
so framing the big picture this way, the question whether the current "bubble" will or will not justify itself in terms of valuation is actually a sideshow. these huge raises and power-dealing needs to be understood primarily as positioning the board for the next phase
the game theoretic dynamics of late stage exit liquidity is very interesting, reminiscent of the endgame of the nft bubble. ofc in this case the fundamentals are much more substantial and so you can still imagine a few "good endings" from the pov of aspiring non-bagholders
the metaorganism we call economy or techno-society has been self-improving for centuries by now. there is no reason to think that narrow ai gains, no matter how miraculous seeming, will suddenly produce order of magnitude gains on the evolution time steps of techno-society