François Belle-Larant

Economist @DGTresor. Views are my own and not my employer’s.

[L'Équipe @lequipe]

"Un océan de larmes"

La une de L'Équipe du vendredi 12 juin.

[François Belle-Larant @fbellelarant]

Ravi de voir @LesEchos relayer les éléments issus de la séance du HCSF du jour, ainsi que les résultats du Trésor Éco que nous publions aujourd’hui. https://t.co/YskhqbfFq9 cc @DGTresor

🧵 à venir

[Les Echos @LesEchos]

Malgré le conflit en Iran et le crédit privé, le HCSF estime que le risque financier reste contenu en France https://t.co/NvmVwuUgvl

[Always Adblock @alwaysadblock]

MBAs and JDs honestly should have a 0.5 credit hour class on little things like this. It will make a far bigger difference to a grad's prospects than an extra GPA decimal in one class.

[Gita Gopinath @GitaGopinath]

A painting of the end of meritocracy: A meeting of the two largest economies and not one woman at the table.

[François Belle-Larant @fbellelarant]

Found an old @FT newspaper, aged perfectly.

[François Belle-Larant @fbellelarant]

Avec notamment une pièce très poétique avec de nombreuses ancres anciennes de bateaux (dont la forme n’a rien à voir avec celles d’aujourd’hui).

[Anne-Claire Legendre @AClaireLegendre]

And a great exhibition at @imarabe to discover more of this fascinating story !
Don’t miss it 👇

[Banque de France @banquedefrance]

🔍 Le Haut Conseil de Stabilité Financière (HCSF) publie son rapport annuel 2025.

Présidé par le ministre de l’Économie, il réunit la Banque de France, l’@AMF, l’Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (@ACPR_actu )et l’Autorité-des-Normes-Comptables ANC, avec un co‑secrétariat assuré par la @DGTresor et la Banque de France.

Le rapport met en lumière une croissance résiliente, une dynamique maîtrisée du crédit immobilier, la solidité des banques et des assureurs, ainsi qu’une stratégie renforcée face aux risques émergents, notamment le cyber risque.

🎥 Découvrez les messages clés en vidéo

🔗 Rapport complet : https://t.co/9iHAxVVZao

[JohannesBorgen @jeuasommenulle]

1) You might have missed it but the EU just published the CMDI package – one of the most consequential pieces of bank regulation. It fixes something that has been really embarrassing about European banking regulation for more than a decade. And the impacts are huge.

[François Belle-Larant @fbellelarant]

Inutilement génial

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

Current state of the market.

[Gita Gopinath @GitaGopinath]

It strikes me that markets are pricing in more hawkish central bank reaction functions as compared to where central bankers are. I suspect most central bankers are in wait and see mode and will want to see through some of the energy price increase. Unlike 2021, demand is not surging which makes seeing through a defensible strategy. They will likely be more cautious about rate cuts relative to pre-Iran conflict but markets seem to be pricing in much tighter monetary policy.

[JohannesBorgen @jeuasommenulle]

1/13 Fed Governor Bowman just dropped her US bank reform blueprint – on top of the “easy” headline you’ve all seen (less capital), there’s some pretty important stuff in there. A thread.

[François Belle-Larant @fbellelarant]

@jeuasommenulle Lagarde not in sight, our out of the crop?

[François Belle-Larant @fbellelarant]

@VLequertier Avez vous le lien de la note ?
Merci

[François Belle-Larant @fbellelarant]

Still seems pretty low to expect a rate hike

[jck✨ @Alea_]

🛑 ECB'S KOCHER: IF THE CURRENT MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON PRICES BECOME REALITY, WE WOULD EXPECT GROWTH TO BE LOWER BY A QUARTER OF A POINT AND INFLATION TO RISE BY HALF A POINT

[JohannesBorgen @jeuasommenulle]

Great piece in the FT this morning about private credit never going bankrupt with this chart
Restructuring/NPL booking practices are like banks' pre SSM so follow PIK % instead of defaulted loans.

[François Belle-Larant @fbellelarant]

A must read from @Brad_Setser

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Me, in the Financial Times --

On the surge in China's intervention, and the impossibility of diversifying away from dollar assets/ Treasuries when the state banks are buying $100b a month in FX

1/

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: https://t.co/5dfrkByGyX

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

the role of private credit in the AI boom - new BIS study
https://t.co/3E6FRhU4nT

[François Belle-Larant @fbellelarant]

Bonne année à tous !