Fictitious Capital

Writing about commodities, energy, and macro @ | Vibes-maxxing

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

“Men make their own history, but they do not make it just as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but under circumstances directly encountered, given and transmitted from the past.” — Marx

Everyone knows the world is changing in ways we don't fully understand, even though most of us pretend to.

And that's okay, the world is a complex system.

My newsletter (link in bio) is designed to explain key components that shape our global system, dispel mainstream myths, and provide frameworks to better understand events as they unfold.

Ultimately, the goal is to be better able to shape the future.

This is a 🧵of 🧵's to consolidate all the newsletter pieces.

Share, subscribe, and engage!

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@pepemoonboy At some point would be very interesting to see whether all the BTC thinkers, many of them smart well intentioned people, acknowledge that there championing of Saylor, in cultish manner, was unnecessary and detrimental.

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@AutismCapital @Truthcoin The man remains the biggest threat to BTC. https://t.co/Enr4fkiy7b

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@PauloMacro Been saying for years that Saylor is the biggest threat to BTC. Quite sad, BTC is actually pretty great tech.

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@rev_cap When people say this what do they really mean? That gold traders are smarter than equity traders in figuring out macro / rates?

Cause like there's nothing mechanical about this, it's all people driving the assets.

[Raunak @caps_raunak]

Bro, I'm so fucking tired of this AI shit.

You pour 8–10 years into mastering a craft late nights, brutal feedback, real scars from real failures.

Then some model trained on millions of stolen data (including yours) spits out better work in 4 seconds flat.

And the replies? "This is amazing Future is here"

We're not progressing. We're enthusiastically building the machine that makes our entire skillset worthless and calling it innovation.

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@BradWilcoxIFS Happy to see this finally get more mainstream recognition.

For a more technical framework for how to think about this, wrote a primer last year after my own experience of fatherhood. https://t.co/qzn6CeOR2e

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@EiFSoccer Martin Odegaard 🙏

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@anishmoonka Underappreciated topic! https://t.co/H01lMG0TO0

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@HarveyDiamonds The most damning thing about Odegaard is that it's really hard to say what he's become better at over the past 3 years.

A player of his age needs to be rapidly improving but he's steadily declined just in his range of abilities it seems.

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@SantiSignals Couldn't agree more.

https://t.co/CuRkZ1OdTV

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

People who say Arsenal are a defensive team don't know what they're seeing. Arsenal fans criticizing Arteta genuinely don't deserve to be a part of this journey.

He's perfected the python squeeze, now it's time to add venom to the bite.

Offensive:
-- 2nd in PL for goals scored & chances created
-- 1st in UCL group stages for xG
-- 3rd in Europe for field tilt (behind just City and PSG)

Defensive (mind blowing):
-- 1st in Europe for goals, xGA, and big chances conceded.
-- 1st fair play / disciplinary record in PL (no red cards)
-- No penalties conceded in PL

This team went essentially unbeaten across the UCL. The most offensive team in the world wasn't able to score from open play across 120 mins.

Arteta just needs to make the team more ruthless and move past the likes of Odegaard and Gyokeres!

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

People who say Arsenal are a defensive team don't know what they're seeing. Arsenal fans criticizing Arteta genuinely don't deserve to be a part of this journey.

He's perfected the python squeeze, now it's time to add venom to the bite.

Offensive:
-- 2nd in PL for goals scored & chances created
-- 1st in UCL group stages for xG
-- 3rd in Europe for field tilt (behind just City and PSG)

Defensive (mind blowing):
-- 1st in Europe for goals, xGA, and big chances conceded.
-- 1st fair play / disciplinary record in PL (no red cards)
-- No penalties conceded in PL

This team went essentially unbeaten across the UCL. The most offensive team in the world wasn't able to score from open play across 120 mins.

Arteta just needs to make the team more ruthless and move past the likes of Odegaard and Gyokeres!

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

Overall, it's incredible to see how Arteta's 5-phase plan has panned out. The man is a genius, and what he's done and how he's done it warrants many levels of adoration.

Arsenal are the best team in the world, and a penalty shootout loss to a team that only exists for the CL isn't going to change that.

But now that he's won a major trophy, he needs to take the handbrakes and create a ruthless team. Right now the team is resolute, not ruthless.

And that evolution cannot have Odegaard & Gyokeres at the core.

Saka is incredible but not the maverick he once was. Eze has improved but lacks the level of fitness and concentration that's needed.

The need for brilliance needs to be more shared than it has been.

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@footalyse 💯

He's only going to improve so with the right support (and a little bit of luck), it could be the start of a good run.

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

Overall, it's incredible to see how Arteta's 5-phase plan has panned out. The man is a genius, and what he's done and how he's done it warrants many levels of adoration.

Arsenal are the best team in the world, and a penalty shootout loss to a team that only exists for the CL isn't going to change that.

But now that he's won a major trophy, he needs to take the handbrakes and create a ruthless team. Right now the team is resolute, not ruthless.

And that evolution cannot have Odegaard & Gyokeres at the core.

Saka is incredible but not the maverick he once was. Eze has improved but lacks the level of fitness and concentration that's needed.

The need for brilliance needs to be more shared than it has been.

[HarveyDiamonds @HarveyDiamonds]

Ref cost us big time.

Approach after the first 25 minutes wasn’t good enough.

Subs were poor - limited impact/negative impact.

Saka & Ødegaard in particular are no longer linchpins of this side - the latter should really be sold this summer.

Very clear that if we build around the right people then we’ll be back and have this opportunity next year.

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@AndreasSteno What a compliment for arsenal. You guys are twats.

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@NYCMayor @RepAOC As an Arsenal fan, this is one the issues with us winning. The cringe is unreal 😭

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@Alarsenalnews_ Also true for arteta I think. https://t.co/KOFhrLK62s

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@AFCAMDEN Been thinking a lot about this.

I think it's because Arteta is desperate to win the league, so he's unwilling to give up control and risk conceding.

If he wins a trophy, we'll see a team more similar to City from a few years ago that was ripping teams apart.

[⭕ AI & Design (Marco) @AIandDesign]

I'm not gonna lie, the @Meta layoffs are some of the most dystopian I've ever seen. They got told to work from home, they were sent the emails at 4AM in the morning. Those who weren't impacted have software on their computer that tracks their every move, preparing AI to take their job as well. They're literally training the AI that will eliminate their position as well.

Meanwhile, Meta is raking in RECORD PROFITS.

I am a massive, unapologetic AI enthusiast. Yet, this is NOT the future I had in mind.

I wish for Meta to crash and burn. This is not the way. Literally nobody benefits from this.

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@now_arsenaI

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@AzizSunderji So much to unpack with fatherhood https://t.co/y7G9ctUKGK

[Fictitious Capital @fictitious_cap]

@BradWilcoxIFS There's so much for people to learn here! https://t.co/y7G9ctUKGK