Fides Capital

Commodity & Emerging Market focused with interest in sector investing strategies. History matters, cycles matter.

✝️ Catholic

There’s an ETF for everything

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@DavidB9715 🙏🤝

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

As an investor, I started to go big into Oil in January. Started accumulating positions during tariff day before going all in January 2026. I have never bought Oil stocks prior to April 2025 for context. I was not bullish on Oil in 2022.

Respectfully, I see too many “investors” on here selling. An investment is ideally a 1+ year hold for tax purposes. Over trading is the reason 90% of people lose money.

The investment thesis for Oil is stronger today than it was in January, it is stronger today than it was in March. US buffers are dissipating, Russian Oil production is plummeting (wait is 2022 actually now reality?), and the parties who agreed to a deal are already not getting along one day into it.

I think we entered a 2-3 year bull cycle on energy in January 2026, and I will either plant a flag on this hill or I will end up dying on it.

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

History Matters

1970s: #Gold #Oil

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

As an investor, I started to go big into Oil in January. Started accumulating positions during tariff day before going all in January 2026. I have never bought Oil stocks prior to April 2025 for context. I was not bullish on Oil in 2022.

Respectfully, I see too many “investors” on here selling. An investment is ideally a 1+ year hold for tax purposes. Over trading is the reason 90% of people lose money.

The investment thesis for Oil is stronger today than it was in January, it is stronger today than it was in March. US buffers are dissipating, Russian Oil production is plummeting (wait is 2022 actually now reality?), and the parties who agreed to a deal are already not getting along one day into it.

I think we entered a 2-3 year bull cycle on energy in January 2026, and I will either plant a flag on this hill or I will end up dying on it.

[Larry Thompson, CMT CPA @HostileCharts]

$XLE vs. $SPY - The energy trade still looks early from where I sit....

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@ThinkAppraiser 400k

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@readyinafewdayz @cohamizu1 And Oil was 25% higher four weeks later it’s just noise man

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@wbcoffeeny They’re all the same problem. The price increases just shift between crude and products in my view going forward.

It is like a seesaw.

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

The shortage is not in crude. It's in products.

Q4 changes that. Chinese crude imports are turning higher, and China is the only country currently able to help solve the diesel crisis. Fixing it moves the shortage upstream.

The Product crisis will become a crude crisis

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@meloathesx @CommodMkt China is the piece. That’s why I have long said to watch their imports.

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

“At this point I would expect to see much greater acceleration on the crude side than the product side” @CommodMkt

The risk remains to the upside in commodities as a whole. As he points out, the agriculture sector is not being discussed enough.

Jeff Currie has been top of the entire sector this year. You cannot be just an Oil or Gold guy. You need exposure to the fullness of the commodity sector at this point.

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

We’re in a critical situation right now - there’s no easy fix to a lack of refinery capacity, a lack of strategic reserves and products, and now-depleted crude reserves.

A route to partial normalisation would be looking to China to release spare refining capacity, which seems to be happening, but a return to full normalisation is unlikely any time soon.

This will shape the broader commodity and macro-economic outlook. All other commodities are dirt and diesel: we saw all time highs in copper yesterday, record-high diesel last week - we’re going to see more highs across the non-energy complex.

Throughout all this, the market is obsessed with crude oil - but everyone reading this right now, as well as the rest of the world, mostly has exposure to the refined product: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel. That will hit the headline CPI index very soon.

And we’ve not event talked about food - Ukrainian strikes in the grain corridors in the Black Sea, as well as weather-impacted crop yields has combined to create a food crisis alongside the fuel crisis - wheat, corn and other crops have risen sharply over the summer. Again, that will hit the headline inflation number.

The bottom line: this is a crisis not only caused by the Strait of Hormuz. Chokepoints from the Red Sea to the Black Sea grain corridor, the Rhine River, the Russian interior, the Panama Canal - weather, war and policymaking - have combined to create a crisis that has no easy way out.

The energy crisis is here: it has arrived and it’s showing in the product prices, not in crude.

My interview on @CNBC Access Middle East with @dan_murphy can be watched in full below - thanks to Dan and team for inviting me on.

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@JoshYoung It’s all noise man. I expected Crude to stay between 75-105 through the end of the year.

With that said, the oil bears are going to carried out in a stretcher in 2027.

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@meloathesx @CommodMkt To fix the diesel shortage you have to refine more crude. The shortage will just move from one side to the other side. I have written about this for a few months now 🙏🙌

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@meloathesx @CommodMkt No. Currie is saying the opposite at current levels and I agree with him.

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@mktwavestamer Exactly 👍

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@stknbd_thomas Extremely stable

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

US Housing isn’t going to crash. Wrote an article about this. If you are bullish inflation you’re bullish housing.

The US is the most interest rate stable country when it comes to residential real estate. The rise in rates effects US real estate substantially less than any major country in the world

[TheHappyHawaiian @ThHappyHawaiian]

"ITS A BUBBLE" "HOME PRICES ARE GONNA CRASH!"

"HOUSING IS OVERLEVEREGED SPECULATION!"

Nope, just plain old inflation. It's not a bubble, your money is just worth less!

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@HipHopOsiris Smart man

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

I've been as openly VERY bullish on $PBR since April 2025. I just put together the full article explaining exactly why.

It's free for anyone to read. Petrobras is one of the biggest sleeping giants in the entire world. The Brazilian oil conglomerate is historically cheap based on every metric.

https://t.co/GKuN8Pwtgd

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

@TreasuryBonds1 No

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

NOAA says this El Niño could become the strongest on record. There is a 70% chance that happens.

At the same time, a third of the world's seabourne fertilizer is being choked off at Hormuz.

Warm water and a closed strait $DBA $WEAT $CORN #UREA