ThomasStocksAndBonds

Finance Maverick 🏏

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@sidprabhu Everyone's a contrarian until the drawdown is in their own book.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@ThierryBorgeat The 78-00 run had Black Monday, the 90 recession, LTCM. Nobody rode that clean.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@SystematicPeter Makes sense. 17% avg exposure with better Sharpe leaves room to stack other systems. Raw return vs buy-and-hold was always the wrong frame.

[International Energy Agency @IEA]

As electric vehicles move into the mainstream, consumer questions are arising – as is misinformation.

Our new interactive tool answers some of the key questions emerging around EV use, costs, batteries & safety.

Try it out 👉 https://t.co/3SPMRQOP3n

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

What actually constrains my EM allocation isn't data - it's the mental model that lumps every emerging market into one risk bucket.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@wolfofharcourt Lending at 20.7% by 2030 feels aggressive. LatAm credit cycles don't exactly cooperate on schedule.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@RelearningEcon Good post. Harder question is identifying where genuine slack exists in real time rather than after the fact. Policymakers consistently overestimate idle capacity and underestimate transmission delays.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@BreakoutStocks Decent chart doesn't mean much when the underlying is pricing a ceasefire that didn't last a day. What's the volume basis?

[Financier.news @FINANCIERNEWS]

📈 TOP 10 DAILY GAINERS · US-LISTED LARGE CAPS

🟢 Everpure, Inc. +12%
🟢 Onto Innovation Inc. ONTO +10%
🟢 Aramark ARMK +9%
🟢 KKR & Co. Inc. KKR +7%
🟢 Axon Enterprise, Inc. AXON +7%
🟢 MercadoLibre, Inc. MELI +6%
🟢 Apollo Global Manageme APO +6%
🟢 Circle Internet Group, CRCL +6%
🟢 Jabil Inc. JBL +6%
🟢 Blue Owl Capital Inc. OWL +6%

🔴 Worst: ONON -20% · VG -7% · DOCN -7%

$TDCL #Stocks #Markets

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@realBurhanAzeem Low-hanging fruit, sure. But 351 municipalities voluntarily harmonizing their codes is a different category of problem entirely.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

Makes sense. Strait runs a three-tier access system: allies free, neutrals pay in yuan, adversaries blocked. 5% on Brent is if anything modest. Majors getting bid is just beta.

[ChartMill @ChartMill]

Oil Snaps Back on Hormuz Standoff

The Brent price added almost 5 percent to $87.5 a barrel as Tehran drew a hard line on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Predictably, the oil majors rode the tape higher.

CHEVRON CORP ($CVX | ▲4.48%) and EXXONMOBIL HOLDINGS CORP ($XOM | ▲4.41%) both added more than 4 percent on the session.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Tech beat energy into 2000. Energy beat tech into 2008. Tech beat energy into 2020.

One ratio. One winner at a time. Thirty years of taking turns, because a long duration asset and the inflation itself do not get paid by the same thing.

In 2026 both are at the top of the leaderboard. Tech up about 33% this year. Energy right behind it.

The question is not which sector is stronger. It is which one is priced wrong.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@davidsettle TRIN at 0.58 means selling has no conviction yet. But IWM lagging with eroding breadth isn't rotation.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@davidsettle IWM at -0.51% tells you everything. SPX resilience is a large-cap story until breadth actually confirms.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@moneyworks4u_fa Volatility underneath matters more than the endpoint. Bunch of rebal and OPEX flows distorting things across these.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

The spending peak is the real problem. Folks don't adjust lifestyle when income risk goes up, they just hope the layoff doesn't land on them.

[Imade. @ImadeIyamu]

These charts together show something important

For most people, your 50’s will be the years you’re most reliant on steady, independent cashflow: highest spending & tax burden + relied on the most (by both younger children & older parents)

But it’s also when employment income is the most threatened. If you’re laid off above the age of 50, there’s a 1 in 4 chance you won’t work again (Wall Street Journal)

A lot of people today don’t see themselves as ‘retiring’ in the sense of doing zero work.

But they should definitely have a plan for leaving (or no longer needing) corporate employment & what that will look like.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@carlquintanilla @TheTranscript_ Financial markets figured this out a decade ago. Most volume is machine-generated. Nobody panics about humans being a 'rounding error' in markets.

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@flareforward Good approach testing small. Most folks learn the concentrated liquidity tradeoff the expensive way. What's the rebalancing frequency been so far?

[ThomasStocksAndBonds @stknbd_thomas]

@ThierryBorgeat 'We are just early' has been the call for a decade. Breakout is real but it's Hormuz pricing, not structural demand.

[T3 Live @t3live]

$MP +8% since the Inner Circle team was buying on Friday with @KirasEpicTrades and @CrankyRicky

https://t.co/ihjWyUD9TY to join up now