Isaac Everest

Forecasting market waves 🌊📉.

[Cryptocrat @Cryptocratico]

🚨 HOLTEC NUCLEAR TARGETS $10.2 BILLION VALUATION IN U.S. IPO — AI POWER DEMAND IS PULLING NUCLEAR BACK INTO THE CAPITAL MARKETS

Holtec Nuclear is seeking to raise as much as $900 million in a U.S. IPO, offering 50 million shares at $15–$18 and targeting a valuation of up to $10.2 billion. The company plans to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker HNUC.

This matters beyond the IPO itself.

Holtec is developing small modular reactors, while also working to restart the 800 MW Palisades nuclear plant — a project that would become the first U.S. commercial reactor brought back into service after decommissioning.

MARKET READ:

Nuclear → investor appetite is increasingly moving from uranium exposure toward the broader nuclear infrastructure and reactor-development chain.

AI / data centers → surging electricity requirements from AI infrastructure are strengthening the investment case for reliable 24/7 generation, with nuclear emerging as one of the key beneficiaries.

Capital markets → a ~$10B targeted valuation would make this an important test of how aggressively public markets are willing to price the nuclear-power renaissance.

Utilities / power infrastructure → reactor restarts and SMRs could become increasingly strategic as U.S. grids struggle to accommodate data-center load growth.

IPO market → JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, BofA Securities and Guggenheim are leading the offering, giving the transaction substantial Wall Street backing.

The AI boom is increasingly becoming an electricity story — and nuclear power is moving directly into the center of that trade.

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

The signal I watch: coal generation flat on a 12-month basis since early 2024, across 17 of 26 provinces. That is structural, not cyclical. It changes how I underwrite thermal coal and LNG.

[Vivek Wadhwa @wadhwa]

China is doing something that we can all cheer... and benefit from.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Price increases since start of the Iran war...
European Natural Gas: +143%
Sulfur: +110%
Heating Oil: +78%
Jet Fuel: +62%
Diesel: +57%
Rice: +49%
WTI Crude Oil: +41%
Gasoline: +39%
Cotton: +32%
Sugar: +30%
Wheat: +23%
Palm Oil: +23%
Corn: +16%

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

@hamandcheese Fable wrote itself a rule against paying defunct suppliers, then paid them anyway. $14,331 lost across six runs versus $0 for Astra. We pay for execution systems because stating a rule and keeping it binding are different skills.

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

@hamandcheese Smoothness is the tell. Steady slope means consistent capital deployment, no blowups. That pink spike around day 290 reads as one lucky position, not process.

[Sachin @Sachin1649242]

From the Gulf to the Horn of Africa, the UAE is strengthening economic and strategic ties through trade, investment, infrastructure and connectivity—creating shared opportunities for long-term growth.

#UAE #Africa

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

I'd focus on the lender mix, not the size: 60%+ of ByteDance's $29.6B came from Chinese banks on a facility coordinated by Citi and JPM. US balance sheet capacity for AI debt is thinner than the deal flow suggests.

[goodfin (YC W22) @getgoodfin]

@BytedanceTalk just secured $29.6B in debt, after initially seeking $20B.

Nearly 30 banks are participating in the three-year facility, coordinated by Citi and JPMorgan. More than 60% of the financing came from Chinese banks, with U.S., European and Singaporean lenders also participating. It’s the second-largest loan in Asia this year, behind SoftBank’s $40B financing for its OpenAI investment. And the entire $29.6B facility is unsecured.

𝗔𝗜 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗮 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸
ByteDance told lenders the financing is for general corporate purposes, but sources familiar with the deal say the funds will mainly support its AI plans. The company has been stepping up investment across AI chips and infrastructure as it expands its AI operations internationally.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗼𝗼𝗱𝗳𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗲𝗻𝘀
AI infrastructure requires enormous amounts of capital. Increasingly, that capital is coming from more than venture and equity markets. ByteDance securing nearly $30B without pledging assets shows how large-scale debt is becoming another way to finance AI growth.

For investors, that broadens the opportunity set around AI. The buildout touches private equity, private credit, infrastructure, energy and the companies supplying the compute underneath it.

AI’s next phase will need more than bigger models. It will need bigger balance sheets.

Source: Reuters, Sept. 4, 2026 — “ByteDance secures $29.6 billion loan in AI push, sources say”

#ByteDance #AI #AIInfrastructure #PrivateMarkets #PrivateCredit #Tech #Goodfin

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

@LogicUniv I'd argue the UAE entry is the test case. FDI only compounds where institutions hold. ADGM kept processing licences straight through the conflict. Continuity is the spillover multiplier.

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

@kurtsaltrichter I agree on the direction. When front-end yields compress, that hunt historically spills into EM credit. The UAE dollar curve is one of the few markets deep enough to absorb flows at institutional size.

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

@janrosenow Fair summary of the OECD record. My counterexample is Barakah: four units delivered, ~25% of UAE electricity, Korean EPC discipline throughout. Stop-start is a procurement choice, not physics.

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

@WealthLens_ Agreed. Shiller's point is the allocation logic too: capital pools where courts actually enforce protection. Part of why I've spent more time on DIFC court precedent than on GDP prints.

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

The scaling math here is real. But I'd push back on 'it will never scale': that assumes capture must stay a pure cost. ADFD's Abu Dhabi Global Water Platform turned unbankable water projects into investable deals. Structure is the variable.

[Ammanichanda @Arkasiraee]

To understand the sheer scale involved, China which was the largest carbon emitter in the year 2025, alone emitted roughly 12.3 billion tonnes of CO₂

At that rate, China emitted around 800,000 tonnes every 34 minutes, as much as this entire facility can capture in a full year of continuous operation.

Offsetting just one year of China’s emissions would require roughly 15,400 facilities of this size, all operating 24/7 for an entire year.

Globally, fossil CO₂ emissions reached around 38 billion tonnes in 2025, while all the operational carbon removal technologies currently remove only about 2 million tonnes annually, a gap of roughly 19,000x.

Projects like this are, merely technology demonstrators. The fundamental problem is economics, emitting CO₂ is the by product of trillions of dollars of productive activity, while capturing and burying it is itself a cost.

Unless captured CO₂ acquires substantial economic value, there is no natural incentive to build carbon removal infrastructure at anything approaching the scale of global emissions.

That economic mismatch, is the reason why this technology will never be able to scale.

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

@WorldResources The first variable I price is fuel risk. Fuel-free generation removes the supply-shock exposure that repriced gas-importing economies. Abu Dhabi's ~1.3 cents/kWh solar tariffs were never a climate trade. They were an energy-security trade.

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

@PeterMallouk The chart is honest, just impolite. I keep coming back to the 4% stat: the 10% compound holds, but only a handful of years actually deliver it. Most capitulation happens in the red years.

[Dan Shipper @danshipper]

rip proof

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

Agreed. I'd point to the 30-year fixed mortgage rather than rate stability. Most EM housing runs floating or short fixes, so hikes hit owners directly. US owners locked sub-3% and skipped the reset.

[Fides Capital @fides_capital]

US Housing isn’t going to crash. Wrote an article about this. If you are bullish inflation you’re bullish housing.

The US is the most interest rate stable country when it comes to residential real estate. The rise in rates effects US real estate substantially less than any major country in the world

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

Verification is the bottleneck in environmental markets. Verra's 2023 scandal showed what happens when it fails. Guardian's policy-as-code model targets exactly that gap, and I'd expect regulators to take notice.

[Hedera Community @HederaCommunity]

A look back at an earlier @Hedera session 🌱

Daniel Swid from Hashgraph explored how Hedera Guardian can bring transparency and verifiability to environmental asset management.

Catch up on what was discussed. https://t.co/0C4R7DjRjo

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

As a quant, 'no data required' physically hurts to read. But taste is the one variable you can't backtest, so I'll concede the point.

[Ilona Goldmane 🦊 @GoldManeDesign]

Is self-doubt sabotaging your execution?

Second-guessing your taste is the fastest way to paralyze your work.
Trust your instincts - they are your only real compass.

#MorningClassroom

[Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600]

Heat waves have been the deadliest natural disaster so far in 2026. HT @xruiztru

[Isaac Everest @mktwavestamer]

@aeberman12 Agreed on the phase shift. The strait stays conditional and restricted. The variable I underwrite is domestic execution: ADGM kept licensing, VARA kept issuing guidance through the shock. That spread survives diligence.