fiddy

Solana maxi

[BitcoinHabebe @Bitcoinhabebe]

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[fiddy @fidrod3]

@ZeroHedge_ @Tradingalpha_ What's the worst thing you can hear from Willie Nelson while giving him a blowjob? I'm not Willie Nelson.

[fiddy @fidrod3]

@DoctorCatX thanks for reposting this! I have been trying to find a good explanation example of your time theory. this is perfect

[Dr Cat @DoctorCatX]

It's interesting to observe that quite some people are getting interested in Ichimoku's Time Theory.

It's pretty extensive but you can find the basics of the most important model in the quoted tweet.

And I want to make one very important remark: when you count cycles as per Ichimoku on TradingView, you must start counting one candle earlier than the swing high/low in consideration.

The reason is that TradingView counts the current candle as candle 0 but Ichimoku's Time Theory counts it as candle 1.

Hence we need this adjustment to get the correct count.

[Cullen Roche @cullenroche]

A (hopefully) calming message:

This market is going to scare a lot of people. But remember that volatility and uncertainty is the price of admission to the stock market. Without some short term pain there cannot be long term gains.

Try to avoid overreacting. Some will be tempted to move all in to cash or make extreme moves. You're not playing poker. You're allocating your savings. If your portfolio feels like a casino you're doing this all wrong.

What should you do in environments like this?

1) Revisit your financial plan (or create one now - it's not too late). If you absolutely must raise cash then don't go all in. Move about 2 years of expenses to Tbills or cash equivalents. Enough to weather an economic hurricane if it should arrive.

2) This is a good time to make sure you have an estate plan. Review or establish trust, will and life insurance. Get your financial house in order.

3) Tax loss harvest. Consider swapping those super high risk concentrated positions into similar, but more diversified allocations.

4) If you are lucky to have excess cash consider dollar cost averaging into stocks.

5) Try to think long term. Regular readers know I think in specific time horizons for financial planning purposes. Try to compartmentalize your assets relative to your expected expenses and liabilities. This will help you increase certainty. Stocks are long term assets (15+ years minimum!). Don't treat them like 15 month instruments!

6) Stay the course (if you can). If you have a good plan in place days like today should be irrelevant. If you feel tempted to make big shifts it probably means your risk profile is off.

7) Talk about it. If you're sitting on stressful losses or volatile positions talk about it. Own the mistake. Get advice and opinions. Don't bottle it up and let it eat you.

8) Put your head down and do the work. Staring at your account and watching financial TV won't change the market or your portfolio outcome. Get to work doing what you do for a living. Focus, add value, ignore the things you can't control and focus on controlling the things you can.

9) Go do leg day. I'm serious. Go for a run, walk or bike ride. Live in a squat rack like I do. Get your mind off the craziness.

Good luck out there. Be disciplined!

[Dr Cat @DoctorCatX]

$BTC Bitcoin - Update

🎯 Everything played out as expected.

📉We got the cycle high on schedule yesterday.

🫴🔮🗓️And we also got 81.2K between the 3rd and 7th of April, a forecast I posted more than once this week, last time was here yesterday: https://t.co/SigsCVGy29

A disclaimer for transparency:

The rejection was so brutal yesterday that while I was preparing the post the price already dropped around 1K than what is shown on the chart.

The tweet is from 20:27 UTC but the screenshot is from 20:26 UTC.

🐂 The bullish idea which is my current expectation remains the same: to set a bottom here.

The reason I believe this is the most likely scenario is because:

1⃣ The daily downtrend is pretty broken as I said recently, time is needed for a bearish TK cross and CS is inside the candles.

2⃣ MTF doesn't look ready to trend down either and 12H has a decently fat bullish kumo while the price is below the kumo which implies bear trap.

3⃣ We finally are at the dates for a cycle low we have been patiently awaiting since my post on the 30th of March when I warned for the first time that because of the fresh low on Sunday, a bottom should not come before the 3rd of April: https://t.co/U6eEJyGgXy

4⃣ $SPX is (almost) testing the weekly kumo for the first time since the bull market started, and it's at a time for a weekly cycle low. So stocks which have been pressuring us down should bounce here as well.

👀🗓️If we bounce as I expect, we will evaluate the time factor and see if bulls go on schedule to save the weekly uptrend as per the deadlines I provided logo ago - 11th and 18th of May in my detailed analysis here: https://t.co/hrt1UBBD5K

⚠️🐻 What if I'm wrong and things turn ugly:

Keep in mind that if the 76K low is renewed, however, and we get CS closing below the 2D kumo, the bull market may be over.

🤷‍♂️Because the 2D will be fully confirmed bearish at this point and I don't see bulls recovering on time on the weekly.

🫴☁️The kumo at CS on the 2D is currently at 82,926$ on Bitstamp.

If we get a 2D close below but we don't renew the 76K low by the 5th of April, the daily Kijun Sen will turn up which is a further red flag for bears on the daily.

Then I would need to carefully reassess everything as the situation would not be that clear.

[ZERO IKA 🗡️ @IamZeroIka]

- Mastering your trading mindset -

They tell you trading is simple.

That all you have to do is wait for the setup, take the trade, and accept the outcome: win, lose, or breakeven.

Just follow the plan, stick to the rules, manage risk, and over time, the edge plays out, that’s it.

That’s the entire game.

So why does it feel so damn hard?

Why do you hesitate when you know you should enter?

Why do you chase after price, even when you promised yourself you wouldn’t?

Why do you overtrade, revenge trade, or close out too early, only to watch the trade go exactly where you thought it would?

It’s because the market isn’t just a collection of price movements, It’s a mirror.

And every time you sit down at your desk, it reflects back everything you don’t want to see: your impatience, your insecurities, your fear of being wrong, your need to be in control.

You think you’re here to trade a system, a strategy, a set of probabilities, but in reality, you’re here to face yourself.

Because you don’t chase trades because of “momentum” or “confirmation.”

You chase because deep down, you’re afraid of missing out, terrified that the move will leave without you, convinced that if you don’t jump in now, you’ll never get another opportunity.

You hesitate, not because you’re being “cautious,” but because you don’t fully trust yourself.

You second-guess your plan because some part of you would rather avoid taking a loss than execute correctly.

You overtrade, not because there are unlimited opportunities, but because sitting still, waiting, doing nothing well..that’s unbearable.

You’d rather force trades than sit with the feeling of not being in control.

And so you keep making the same mistakes, over and over again.

You stare at the chart, watching, waiting, convincing yourself that a setup isn’t really there when you’re afraid to take it but then, when you need action, you convince yourself it almost is.

You tell yourself if you just wait one more candle, just stretch your rules a little more, it’ll be perfect.

And in that moment, you’re not trading a system.

You’re trading your emotions, dressed up as logic.

The market doesn’t care what you feel, but it knows.

And it will exploit every emotional weakness you have until you either fix it or the game forces you out.

And the hardest part? The market is always open.

The chart is always there, just waiting.

It doesn’t force you to do anything, it just exists, open to your interpretation.

And that’s where the struggle begins.

Because it’s not just about learning a strategy, you already know what to do.

The problem is doing it.

So how do you fix it?

You stop measuring progress by wins and losses.

You stop thinking that results are the only sign of improvement.

Because outcomes don’t build traders, reps do.

You detach from the need to win and attach yourself to the process.

Because trading success doesn’t come from obsessing over your P&L, It comes from asking better questions:

- Not “Did I make money today?” but “Did I follow my system?”

- Not “Did this trade win?” but “Did I stay disciplined?”

- Not “How much did I make?” but “Did I manage my risk?”

That’s what actually matters, that’s what moves you forward.

And once you understand that, once you truly internalize it, trading stops feeling like an emotional war.

You stop forcing trades because you don’t need the market to give you action.

You stop hesitating because you trust your ability to execute.

You stop overmanaging because you no longer fear what happens after you place the trade.

Because now, you’re playing a different game.

Now, you’re placing the trade, setting your risk, and walking away..not because you don’t care, but because you know that caring too much is exactly what’s been holding you back.

Now, you’re marking your key levels, journaling your setups, setting your alerts, placing your orders, and then stepping away..not because you’re avoiding the market, but because you finally understand that real discipline isn’t watching every tick.

It’s trusting yourself enough not to.

At first, it won’t feel natural: you’ll feel the urge to check, to interfere, to react.

But then, one day, something shifts.

One day, you’ll realize you no longer flinch at a loss.

You’ll take your trade, accept the outcome, and move on, because you know the next one is just another rep.

One day, you’ll notice that you don’t hesitate anymore.

You see the setup, you execute, and there’s no second-guessing, no internal battle, just action.

One day, you’ll realize you don’t need to chase, overtrade, or force anything, because you finally understand that the market isn’t something to be conquered, it’s something to be respected.

And that’s when trading finally becomes simple.

Not because the market changed, not because you found the “perfect” strategy.

But because you changed.

Because you stopped fighting yourself.

[Dr Cat @DoctorCatX]

$BTC Bitcoin - Update

No changes, the plan stays the same and goes as expected so far.

🚀 On the big picture things are bullish after the Kyushu Ashi signal which flashed with the Sunday close and I expect the next leg up to start soon, depending on how the daily holds - latest next week.

🔮🔮🎯 Short term I warned twice about potential shakeouts and we got twice shakeouts so far.

❓🔮Today close will show if we will get a daily swing high as per the time cycles (19th of January +-2).

🐂The daily just flipped technically bullish as we have already the bullish kumo twist, the TK golden cross and Kijun Sen is above the kumo.

📚Optimally we want the kumo to get wider and Kijun Sen to turn up to completely validate the TK cross and rule out a range in bullish territory (for the former we just need to hold here a couple of days, for the latter a new ATH).

🥢 MTF is simply a chop.

⚠️On the 2D we still need around a week or so to get the bullish TK cross. So this may either delay the next leg up with around a week or if it starts right now we may get one more shakeout relatively soon.

🐂🐂 On the big picture, two more bullish arguments on the weekly:

1⃣The kumo is turning up and SSB will continue to go up the next few weeks. As you already know, the price tends to go up when Kijun Sen goes up or the kumo goes up.

2⃣The time cycles. With the fresh ATH we are 6 candles away from the last cycle high.

🗓️The weekly cycles have been respecting the Kihon Suchi cycles since months.

Which means that it's most likely this to continue.

Which means minimum next cycle to be 9 +-2 weeks if we count from the last high, or 51 +-2 weeks if counting from the March 2024 high.

Because the lowest KS number is 9 and the last cycle was a 42 week cycle. And the next KS number after 42 is 51.

Of course everything is possible and we can make a Taito Suchi 6 weeks cycle instead but changing the pattern is always the lower probability.

🐂In brief, many things are pointing bullish on the weekly since the Sunday close about which I wrote on Sunday itself that would be bullish above 98.4K.

🚀 I could see max a week or so chop around (if that) but we should start going up on the big picture very soon.

[fiddy @fidrod3]

A new meta is coming… Massive launch, massive backing, massive earning potential: @pumpdotai

[fiddy @fidrod3]

@AbstractPeng @taj_trader @thegolden_eel @leekuan075

[Dr Cat @DoctorCatX]

Altseason

$BTC.D has completed successfully the bullish retest of the weekly Kijun Sen on the weekly chart.

Bullish for Bitcoin against alts.

Because I'm objective, I will say once again that I do not use this chart because it includes the stables and makes the picture less clear.

The chart I do use to judge altseason which excludes stables FAILED to do the bullish retest as it closed below.

With that being said, CS remains comfortably above the candles which is more important as shows decent bullish momentum.

I will still wait for my confirmation signal. As always, I still do NOT see enough evidence that the altseason has started.

Everyone and their dog have been calling Altseason 20 times in the last 10 months while I kept repeating we lack confirmation yet.

🎯🗓️🔮 And back in August I forecasted a "mini" altseason starting between November and December if we don't hit my key level by then - and exactly that happened: https://t.co/dwjejrAIuW

This is what I posted back in August:

"If August closes like this (with a bullish candle), we should expect 2-3 more months of bullish PA on this chart (i.e., pain for alts against $BTC), then, some reversal for a few months ahead - i.e. alts outperforming Bitcoin.

If the CS divergence plays out but the resistance level is not reached we may get just a mini altseason though - because the CS divergence simply tells when to expect up and when down movements but doesn't provide price targets."

And it played out perfectly 🎯

I may be wrong that the altseason hasn't started yet but so far altseason has been the one thing on which I have been perfectly accurate in my analysis so I guess you should give me some credibility for it.

[Decode @decodejar]

When do you think the #Bitcoin cycle top is most likely to come?

[fiddy @fidrod3]

@PappyVanCrypto9 Are you still in this? Sell off has been heavy

[Dr Cat @DoctorCatX]

$BTC

I posted yesterday at the daily open at 77K that my bearish case is invalidated and I flip bullish (short and mid-term, as long term I have been bullish ever since I bought 16K in 2022).

I got comments that it's dumb to flip bullish after such a big pump and now the market would reverse.

Guess what, a day later, without ANY retrace, we trade 7K higher already.

Please understand the following: everyone, including me, has their own different system and views and not a single system in the world is perfect.

If I waited for this invalidation for so long, I had my reasons for that.

If I flipped bullish at 77K before a retrace - I also had my reasons and as you see it was a good move.

As I clearly explained, 8th of November was literally the last date for a potential reversal and any renew of the high on the 9th onwards would imply further pump is due.

That being said, credit is credit and I want to give credit to a couple of people who were bullish before me:

@CryptoSays
@tonythebullBTC
@phoenix_cr47
@nology3000
@crypto_columbu

Also, I want to use the opportunity to ask everybody to leave @CredibleCrypto alone.

Even though now I already disagree with him, I respect him as an excellent trader and analyst and I understand he has his own reasons.

And if he changes his opinion it will be based on his own system and not based on trolling pressure in the comment section - the same thing I was explaining in my comment section, how I would invalidate my case when I have MY own reasons.

For the sake of love, this man provides ton of golden content and spends plenty of time even to make educational videos FOR FREE.

What an idiot one should be to troll and attack someone like him who just shares his honest opinion?

If you disagree with him and don't want to read him - move on and that's it. But leave him alone and behave respectfully like mature adults.

[Dr Cat @DoctorCatX]

$BTC Bitcoin

As Credible Crypto and me both are having decent amount of unfollows the last few days, related to what I said in the quoted tweet below, I would like to clarify the following:

- I don't care if people unfollow me or not for being bearish. I care only about saying what I think regardless if I am right or wrong, I just want to be honest. If I wanted plenty of followers I would permabull post instead, never get trolled about my opinion in advance, never get attacked when I'm wrong, but I would be ashamed to look at myself at the mirror.

The reason why I am still not invalidating 49K is simple. It's not because I am stubborn, but because I have clear arguments, which pretty much are approaching their invalidation point right now:

1⃣ We are at a turning point exactly at a time for a major cycle high just before a forecast for a major cycle low when we STILL don't have even the weekly close above 72K which confirms the bullishness on the weekly. All of which happens at the background of giga bullish news which is always dangerous.

2⃣ I do acknowledge that there is a lot of support above 49K. But, if I am right and we set the cycle here by today, then start the dump next week and close below 72K which is so close to us, Chiko Span will enter back the candles which still as per Ichimoku means one thing: RANGE, and not a bullish trend.

3⃣ If the weekly is not bullish anymore, and especially if the daily gets broken by closing below Kijun, what's the problem to go to 60? If we close a weekly below 60K, 54K should be programmed. If we close a biweekly below it, not only 49K may come, but even lower prices.

🐻🐻🐻 That's why a small thing as confirming this daily cycle high and closing this and/or next week below 72K may lead to a cascade of bearish reactions.

4⃣ On the other side, if we renew the high tomorrow or the next couple of days, and preferably we close this week above 72K, optimally with a big body green candle, plenty of arguments would turn against my thesis and I would see more arguments to invalidate it.

Why?

5⃣ Because if we renew the daily high shortly after today, it means the next cycle high should come minimum next week.

6⃣ If a fresh daily high comes next week, this means that we might invalidate also a major cycle high on the weekly. Which, doesn't have as long and as stable pattern as the cycle pattern the daily, but must not be ignored, and if invalidated, would suggest more pump for the next 5 weeks.

🐂🐂🐂 As you see, exactly the opposite may happen, a cascade of bullish events.

7⃣ If we still set the daily high here as I expect, and dump next week, but very shallow and hold above 72K as a low, I need to observe but I may consider that this has been it for the awaited dump and we are moving up next. But I can't see the future so I can't say what will happen next week so I need to OBSERVE in the exact moment.

8⃣ Last but not least, something very important related to the time cycles and to whether we close this week with a big green candle.

🔮🗓️Ichimoku's Time Theory don't make the forecast only for cycle lows and highs.

It makes them for the so called "Henka-Bi" which in Japanese means "Day of Change". This may be either a cycle low/high as expected, OR, a big candle accelerating in the direction of the trend.

⚠️🐂🗓️If we get a big green candle at the forecast dates for the awaited cycle low, this may mean that the Henka-Bi candle (with big body), DID happen on the forecast dates, but instead of setting a low, it set an acceleration in the direction of the trend.

🐂Which is another strong bullish argument.

As you see, we are at a turning point where we should find out very soon what the market is telling us.

I always do my analysis based on arguments and don't change my opinion just because it's unpopular, or because I am in the mood of doing it.

If you want to hear only what you love to hear you need to follow someone else, I am doing objective and honest TA here regardless if I'm right or wrong.

[fiddy @fidrod3]

@drpastet Have you done any educational threads on time cycles?

[Dr Cat @DoctorCatX]

$BTC

This is how the weekly Bitcoin chart looked exactly 3 years ago in the week with 8th of November 2021.

If we don't go into some obscure/subjective details this must be straightforward bullish as per Ichimoku - as it looks now as well.

We all know what happened the week after in 2021.

The question is, will a dump happen now as well when:

1) We have ultra bullish sentiment on Twitter on forecast dates for a major daily cycle high

2) My mom is texting me Bitcoin is up

3) Mainstream media bull posts

4) Trump has won the elections which are bullish news

5) We have a forecast for a weekly low just around the corner

6) We have a forecast for monthly low just around the corner

7) We are in presumably the last bullish weekly wave of the move since 49K

Soon we will find out.

As I said, the good thing is that short term the time cycles give us a lot of clarity.

Whether the high is renewed after the 8th of November or not should tell us if to expect further pump or not.

For now for me clearly the odds are in favor of a local top by the 8th of November.

I can't see the future, I use logic, data and probabilities, that's what they are telling me.

[Dr Cat @DoctorCatX]

$BTC [⚠️Third official update of the big forecast + important short term update]

1⃣ Kamala Harris to win the US elections - ❌

2⃣ Bitcoin to trade below 49.4K on any day between 28th of October and 15th of December, most likely between 11th of November and 8th of December - ❓

3⃣ Weekly swing low between 28th of October and 15th of December, most likely between 11th of November and 8th of December - ❓

4⃣September, October and November to close below 72K and above 44.6K - 🎯 🎯 ❓

First, to clear some confusion, please note that I have NEVER, EVER expected Bitcoin dump because I thought that Kamala Harris was gonna win. 🤦‍♂️

Respectfully, only dumb people believe that news drive the charts, it's the other way around.

I made it very clear that I expect her to win based on my TA, not the other way around.

⚠️🇺🇸👨Now, when Trump had won, this changes nothing in the forecast, in fact, it makes things even more dangerous short term because of the risk of the sell the news.

⚠️⌛️As I posted yesterday, no the biggest danger for a rejection is between today and 8th of November when we have multiple confluence for a daily cycle high, including a huge 101 day cycle.

This is my main expectation now, a daily high to be already in or set latest by 8th of November.

🥳⌛️⚠️When you have bullish news, euphoria, and time cycles telling you this may be a cycle high (even on the monthly as I mentioned recently), and other time cycles telling you a weekly low should be around the corner, this is a time to be cautious of a big dump.

The other two points from the forecast stay the same.

The dates for the weekly low are the same, they will simply be met or not.

As per 49K, as I said many times, I may reconsider it on the way down depending on how the price reacts, but as I can't see that from now, it currently remains the default target.

In brief, for now the plan stays the same on the big picture, on thee same, huge caution the next two days. We haven't even got the weekly close above 72K, the weekly looks identical to November 2021 as per Ichimoku, the time cycles are screaming high odds for a cycle high here and euphoria is at very high levels.

⚠️📉Even if we don't eventually reach 49K, we may still reject here and meet the time cycles forecast for a weekly low shortly.

[fiddy @fidrod3]

@_mihalkov @spectatorindex Trump actually proposed that his supporters inject bleach

[Dr Cat @DoctorCatX]

$ETH Ether - Update

It was dumb to post on the last day of the month before seeing how the monthly will close.

Now it closed below the Kijun which makes me definitely less confident in this bottom.

Whether the bottom is in or not, we should see but all I can say for now is that if the bottom is not in, it should be set in February as per the time cycles below.

And BTW, regarding the $ETHBTC pair (I will provide an official extra update for that):

I said a potential bottom at ~0.033 between 11th to 24th of November - and I still think it makes sense this to provide some significant bounce.

But I'm not sure anymore that would be the ultimate bottom either there again based on the monthly cycles, when I watched more carefully today.

If the bottom is not set on this scenario, I see it again in February, around 0.029.

As usual, remember the golden rule: we are here not to predict but to observe.

These are ideas which I observe now, when they come, we can confirm or reject them.