The 10 year to 30 year it’s flattening it’s effectively the 20 year treasury 10 years forward and it’s signaling inflation risks are decaying and I think they will decay at an increasing rate
We were comfortable shorting gold, silver and copper as their volatilities declined as their prices stayed elevated and even rise rose after the start of the February 27, 2026 war.
We degrossed a great deal after the first bomb dropped and through that first Monday on March 1, 2026 as we told our subscribers that I was comfortable degrossing meaningfully for myself.
Subscribe for timely insights about market risk and opportunities.
This morning silver was down 23% and we started to observe firmer volatility so we closed metals short positions just like we closed our leveraged bitcoin short on February 5th 2026 as Bitcoin stopped falling -15% that day and Bitcoin volatility broke out above 50 and rose 80% in 6 hours to 90.4 they day before MSTRs earnings report
People worried that MSTR might signal some coin sales to buy in shares that were down more than 75%
I will only get involved smaller much smaller until metals and crypto volatility stabilized at low levels
It was a great short buy now it’s a trades market for a while
@Drew_Vish@QAGELLC Asking the wrong question. David never said that. What he said was Owners’ equity share of household real estate assets is the highest in almost in almost 70 years.
https://t.co/uoJIYmQmXB
@JaguarAnalytics Melting adjustable mortgage rates will trigger a toxic bull flattener as the share of ARM mortgages increases from 7.5 through 11 the 2 year high.
A melting 2 year is a disaster for risk assets and great for low beta and interest rate sensitive