Finance Burner

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@mathlonning Unfortunately, they have an awfully small amount (~$2M) left under the current repurchase authorization. I hope they issue a larger one to provide optionality and take advantage of moments like these. Clearly insiders liked $BUKS at <$4/share for their individual accounts!

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@dalibali2 I assume it's because the most comparable long-term, inflation-indexed asset (30yr TIPS) is at near record high yields of inflation +2.9% while $RYN investor deck calls for returns of inflation +4%-5% (page 23). Are the execution and commodity-specific risks worth 1%-2% annually?

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@ScarcityTrade Get past the non (never) cash income tax expense and one-time acquisition expense, and $BMNM is 3x earnings with management guiding to paying off 7%+ debt and likely returning capital in 3-4 years once NOLs are used. Still iffy on management, but asymmetric at these prices.

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@TreyHenninger @TheBigLong2019 P/E matters more than ROE in estimating forward returns with $TBBK due to the Durbin Amendment capping assets at $10B for their non-interest business. The business cannot reinvest capital and is effectively forced to return capital. Solid business, though!

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@ScarcityTrade @BetterIRR It seems they are starting to use their repurchase authorization, albeit in small size, with the share count on OTC Markets now under 10M. Management compensation, capital allocation, and minority shareholder treatment are the risks, and repurchases are a great signal.

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@Strategy4C13354 Solid $BUKS write-up. It might also be worth highlighting the Special Mission Electronics unit. Its +33% YoY revenue growth and ~55% operating margins (!) has an outsized impact on Aerospace profitability growth.

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@TreyHenninger Demand is tied to construction & infrastructure which will be GDP-ish growth. I estimate a 7% FCF yield on today’s market cap once growth capex is done in 2 years. Aggregates pricing has been inflation +2% from supply dynamics. Return = ~9% + CPI w/ low risk & low leverage.

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@TreyHenninger $MCEM is also a good business w/ similar great economics. I like $EXP slightly better on mgmt and capital allocation. Example - $MCEM’s stock portfolio vs. high ROIC capex and buybacks at $EXP. Also, $MCEM doesn’t have the usual OTC discount from FinTwit eyes, IMO. Both solid!

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@eriksen_tim @OtterMarket I have found the following to be a simple way to estimate forward return on a sub-TBV business:

Shareholder Yield + [(1 - Total Payout Ratio) x Estimated ROE] = Forward Return

Credit to @alluvialcapital for discussing this a while ago. It’s a great mental tool in the toolbox!

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@colarion Thoughts on the significant increase in wholesale deposits (4.1% cost) to buy investment securities (5.0% yield) over the LTM driving most EPS growth? They have leveraged considerably doing so and are extending asset duration. Quite a bet by $TRUX on short-term rates coming down!

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@wabuffo I also do not appreciate that $CASH has removed their interest rate sensitivity slides since Q2 '25 now that rates do not seem to be going up. They also begin all their NIM slides (also since removed) with Q2 '22 once rates went up. Good model, but quite a rosy framing, IMO.

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@wabuffo Per $CASH investor presentation, guidance assumes no rate cuts during the year. Seems pretty optimistic with the FedWatch Tool currently estimating a 75% chance of 1% - 1.5% worth of rate cuts by the December '26 Fed meeting.

Thoughts on this w/ their short-duration book?

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@eriksen_tim Check out $DIMC for the cheap bank basket, if you haven’t yet. 6.5x earnings, 87% of TBV, 13% ROE, 7 branches in NE Penn, boring loan book.

May be rate sensitive w/ low cost deposits and operating leverage going in reverse, but company is extending bond duration to mitigate.

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@secretlyaninja Agreed! Good short-term IRR on the market flat out missing $NPK defense backlog explosion, but mgmt seems to be a medium/long-term problem.

Going to wait out one more round of earnings and sell first thing in 2026 to get LTCG treatment and defer the tax bill by a year. Fun ride!

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@Contrarian1334 Not sure I understand why. It’s no growth story, but relatively stable and cash flow generative. No synergies and better sold, but they’re not losing money on it. And with state regs, it’d be harder to sell than most businesses. New leadership has been good and deserves time.

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@Ron284Ron Can you speak more on this? Have you ever participated in a demutualization? Is there typically a deposit minimum to qualify to buy shares? Is the maximum share purchase amount pro-rata to the deposit amount? Many thanks in advance.

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@taobanker Buybacks come from profits already captured in the earnings yield. You double counting, and it would be a 9% IRR based on your numbers.

[Finance Burner @finance_burner]

@eriksen_tim @evfcfaddict The rally since the last quarterly earnings report was purely on acquisition hopes. A premium was certainly achieved!