tae kim private

Market intelligence for discerning minds. Deep stock research, price action, and timely insights-shared selectively with a trusted few! MAIN PAGE:
@firstadopter

[tae kim private @firstadopterpvt]

My Substack's stock ideas performance since inception. Thanks to @marketstackfeed for independent third-party verification

[tae kim @firstadopter]

OpenAI is taking share from Anthropic

"• Anthropic still #1 in spend, but went 69% → 40%
• OpenAI: 10% → 24% in spend
• GPT-6 Astra + GPT 5.6 Sol are ripping
• OpenAI now leads in tokens #"

[tae kim @firstadopter]

"An agent in your own cloud computer. You and your Muse share your own dedicated computer in the cloud. This is where your Muse lives and where all data and credentials for any service you connect are securely stored. Each Virtual Machine(VM) is an isolated linux box with a browser and enough storage, CPU, and memory to do real work"

"Muse has a real up-to-date Chromium based browser running behind a virtualization layer. Users can see what Muse is doing in the browser and take over at any time."

"Driving the web browser to achieve the user’s goal is something the Muse Spark 1.3 model is particularly good at. Muse uses a special browser sub-agent to complete each task — reading the pages, traversing the site, filling forms, etc."

"Inference data, the back and forth conversations between you and your Muse and the tool calls and subagent handoffs that result (“trajectories”) are useful data for training new checkpoints of the LLM model at the core. To preserve user privacy, these trajectories are sanitized to remove key personally identifiable information before being used in training. We think this is a good default — every Muse user gets a better personal agent as we all collectively use the product and help the model understand the intricacies of human life."

[tae kim @firstadopter]

The Meta Muse computer is real! Told ya.

"I’ve seen a couple of posts about this so wanted to demystify. Today, every Muse user gets a free computer in the cloud. It's a real computer"

"Just as you can when you install Linux on your home computer, you can poke around and see all the files that make the system work - both debian system files and the binaries and data files that implement the parts of Muse"

"your Muse Secure VM truly is your own computer in the cloud. You can install software in it, write and compile code, use the browser to surf the web: it is your own Linux box that you can operate as you choose with your Muse."

"We’re really proud to be able to put a real computer in millions of people’s hands with a similar level of transparency." "when you ask your Muse to show you its entire filesystem, and receive gigabytes of files you’re seeing the full contents of the runtime cell."

[tae kim @firstadopter]

$200 million in fees! The most of any Goldman hedge fund client

FT: “AI hedge fund Situational Awareness became the biggest prime brokerage client at Goldman Sachs this year ..

Goldman has earned more than $200mn in fees this year from lending to Situational Awareness, the most of any client in its prime brokerage business financing hedge funds ..

It is virtually unheard of on Wall Street for a fund such as Situational Awareness, which is barely two years old, to so quickly become such a large client of an investment bank ..

The fees for Goldman have been so large because of the rapid growth of Aschenbrenner’s fund as well as the types of trades he was making.”

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Weird. It's one thing to do force majeure on a bad hurricane or direct wars, but permits?

Bloomberg: "Oracle Corp. is moving to shield itself from racking up expenses on a massive data center being built in New Mexico"

Oracle "sent the project’s developer, a unit of Blue Owl Capital Inc., a notice citing force majeure, according to people familiar with the situation."

"has hit serious setbacks including the denial of a permit key to its plans for energy resources"

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Only this administration would consider a diesel export ban, which would RAISE gasoline prices for Americans

Morgan Stanley: "Once a refinery is built, its mix of outputs can only be changed within limited range. .. Hence, a diesel export ban could have the counterintuitive effect of an increase in gasoline prices if US refiners cut runs. .. Elsewhere diesel prices would rise"

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Meta Muse ramp. Fascinating how it was flat for three days and then went vertical.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

U.S. gasoline prices up 49%. Oil up 41%. European gas up 134%.

The only fix is to end the war.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Imagine if one billion people used a personal AI agent. That's a lot of CPUs and memory

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Will Apple release an OpenClaw for normies agentic AI app like Meta Muse by year end?

HAHAHAHAHAHA. Nope.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Will OpenAI release an OpenClaw for normies agentic AI app like Meta Muse by year end?

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Will Google release an OpenClaw for normies agentic AI app like Meta Muse by year end?

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Bring our troops home

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Our politicians are idiots

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Bravo!

"We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend."

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Obviously, the Politico story was accurate. Otherwise, the oil industry wouldn't be posting all-out "PLEASE DON'T DO THIS" threads today.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Narrator: Nvidia blew out numbers on the NVL72 product super cycle and posted revenue growth acceleration for four consecutive quarters.

Tae Kim in October 2025: "In just over two years, Nvidia has increased its quarterly data center revenue tenfold. As impressive as this is, the company will likely experience its best product cycle ever over the next few quarters, comparable to the iPhone launch."

[tae kim @firstadopter]

This whole idea of coordinated pacing at the frontier makes no sense. How would anyone measure pacing? Who makes that judgment? There are no numbers to easily latch onto. It's impossible.

The only thing that matters is real human capital investment in building AI guardrails and safety measures. Do proper sandboxing and vigilant self-monitoring of what AI models do.

Again, this is nearly impossible for a government bureaucrat to regulate without messing it up because AI R&D is so dynamic and changing.

I fear we are spiraling toward self-defeating "WE MUST DO SOMETHING" regulations from uninformed politicians bungling it as they are known to do and breaking the "First, do no harm" principle.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

I'm sure AI becoming SO POWERFUL it might kill us all turning into the primary topic of mass media discussion just weeks ahead of Anthropic's multi-trillion-dollar IPO is coincidental.

Definitely not the same playbook AI companies have run before of doom mongering to generate maximum attention ahead of a key fundraising event. Definitely not.

Whether or not they coordinated with Jacob Coxon doesn't matter now, the net effect is the same. The panic fire was shepherded. Their employees quickly poured gas on the post's virality.

You've got to respect the PR game just ahead of a multi-trillion-dollar IPO. Incentives, everyone. The scared normies are now going to pile into the IPO because AI that can cause human extinction must be a good investment.

But all this AI doomering will cause long term harm as the public turns negative and pushes politicians toward poorly thought out, self defeating regulations.