First Hill Capital

Investor. Small cap asia, tech, monopolies, semi’s

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

Thread of my ideas shared on this platform

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

This is worth billions

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

Can the new CEO replicate this???
Big loss

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

More free money

[JP value @yangtreehouse]

バークシャー・ハサウェイは2026年11月9日、新たな円建て社債の発行計画を公表しました。

発行額・金利・満期・発行日は未定
主幹事：み��ほ、BofA証券
資金使途：一般事業資金と既存社債964億円の借り換え

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

If Terrafab is using these suppliers it’s safe to assume it’s absolutely critical and cannot be insourced easily

[Illiquid @illyquid]

Japan seemingly left for dead last week. Meanwhile, Nikkei has been drafting:

"Japan's chip supply chain companies are preparing to fill orders on extremely tight timelines as Musk's semiconductor fab project moves closer to reality."

"Earlier this month, a number of procurement officers from Terafab visited Japan to talk with suppliers here."

"The order is crazy, but our only choice is to do our best to meet it," said one equipment maker who received an order from Terafab for machines to be delivered only a few months out."

https://t.co/9zam3O081s

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

True for many other industries besides AI

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Re: Anthropic October ARR.

"Analysts need to assess product release quality and momentum from a bottoms up basis rather than blindly extrapolating with their 20-tab Excel models.

Product, product, product."

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

Search better / more intelligently -> find product / service quicker -> less total clicks / impressions

Better ads?

[Aria Radnia 🇮🇷 @ariaradnia]

People are using less search, this is a fact.

1) can they monetize legacy search better to compensate for this in the short term?

2) if search turns into AI overview, what are the economics of ads inside AI overview?

3) even if AI overview is just as monetizable as legacy search. Does the market share dropping from 90% on search to say even 50% in AI era mean less revenue?

3b) does the overall pie of searches (TAM) grow to support same revenues with less market share?

Genuinely good arguments for both sides of the debate. I got my popcorn ready either way

$GOOGL $GOOG

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

We do need one…

[BetterIRR @BetterIRR]

I miss the YAV podcast.
Is there any other under the radar podcasts focused on individual names which skew small/midcaps?

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

The big money comes from a small number of qualitative bets

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

I never really hit the limits too hard with Opus, but hit it on the first day Fable released. ARR will explode

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Narrator: Anthropic October ARR was VERY strong

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

Imagine a ultra low latency high uptime API at 3x the cost for robotics

[Claude @claudeai]

Fable 5.2 shows substantially improved skills in controlling physical robots, even on tasks it has never explicitly been trained to do.

On RoboDojo, a benchmark with a simulated two-arm robot, it outperformed other models and most AI systems built to control robots.

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

Did you know that on average a 2nm wafer requires 2.7 test / dummy wafers?

[Semiconductor Insider @SemiconductorsX]

DRAM wafer capacity of the Big 3 (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) climbing steadily through 2027E.

Samsung alone is tracking toward ~855K wafers/month by 2027 - already close to what a single new fab is targeting for memory by 2032.

#DRAM #HBM #Semiconductors #Samsung #SKHynix #Micron $MU $SKHY $EWY

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

Wafers

[Semiconductor Insider @SemiconductorsX]

DRAM wafer capacity of the Big 3 (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) climbing steadily through 2027E.

Samsung alone is tracking toward ~855K wafers/month by 2027 - already close to what a single new fab is targeting for memory by 2032.

#DRAM #HBM #Semiconductors #Samsung #SKHynix #Micron $MU $SKHY $EWY

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

Driverless cars, humanoid robots.

The context window is extremely large for these applications

[Jukan @jukan05]

NIKKEI: ELON MUSK’S TERAFAB HAS TOLD SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT SUPPLIERS IT IS TARGETING A PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF 1 MILLION WAFERS PER MONTH FROM 2032 ONWARD.

OF THAT TOTAL, 700,000 WAFERS PER MONTH WOULD BE ALLOCATED TO MEMORY CHIPS AND 300,000 TO LOGIC CHIPS.

WTF? 700kwpm for memory??

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

@realroseceline no banks, no insurers for me. I would like to learn more about banking financials tho

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

no lies were spoken

[Steven Huffman @Poeslawisalive]

President Trump explains that if you’re Poor it’s because you didn’t Buy Stocks:

60 Minutes: “Your Net Worth went up 3 billion dollars”.
Trump: “So did everyone’s”.
60 Minutes: “My net worth didn’t go up 3 billion dollars”.
Trump: “You should have had stock”.

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

Brother. You were supposed to say this Friday night after close to give the market time to adjust.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang sends letter to employees after being targeted by female Chinese spy:

"I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did."

"I am fully committed to NVIDIA and will work to earn back your confidence."

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

@JapanDeepValue1 Yes. Japan has some incredible businesses that are well managed despite the shareholder returns being low. Many companies are critical pieces of the semi supply chain still undervalued

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

https://t.co/eaSwgf8pRf

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

Flash Crash in Japan and Korea: Reclaimed Wafer Market dynamics and Prime Wafers

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

Yup

[Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @MikeFritzell]

South Korean microcaps are CHEAP

Source: Verdad

[First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap]

There has never been a better time to be a small cap semiconductor analyst