Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor

Thematic Macro Fundamentalist | Global shifts shape the map. Valuations tell me where to dig. Drunkenmiller’s playbook, Buffet’s filter, Lynch’s humility.

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

I study markets the way an engineer studies systems—through models, assumptions, and first principles.

Every post is a fragment of ongoing research into how capital really moves.

Posting the full analyses and frameworks here ↓

https://t.co/qsv0Pids6I

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MIGHT BE BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE.

Latest corporate filings show that OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up over half of the entire $2 trillion future cloud backlog held by Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon.

This massive pipeline is actually being created through a circular accounting trick called a round trip revenue loop.

But how it works ?

A tech giant gives billions of dollars to an AI startup as an "investment". But hidden in the contract is a strict rule forcing the startup to hand that exact same money straight back to the tech giant to rent their computer servers.

Look at the documented case of Microsoft and OpenAI.

When Microsoft invested $13 billion into OpenAI, it didn't just give them cash; it gave them "cloud credits" to use Microsoft servers. OpenAI used those exact credits to train its AI models, and Microsoft then turned around and recorded that server usage as brand new "cloud revenue" from a customer.

The tech giant is literally paying itself with its own money and calling it a sale.

This is why OpenAI’s annual cloud bill has ballooned to over $60 billion, double its actual revenue of $25 billion, kept alive solely by this recycled funding loop.

Anthropic runs the exact same play, spending $2.66 billion on Amazon Web Services in just nine months, which was basically 100% of all the money it earned at the time.

This manufactured demand triggers a second accounting trick where tech giants book massive paper profits. Every time a startup gets a higher value from a new funding round, the tech giant updates the value of its investment on its books and counts that unearned paper gain as direct profit.

In Q1 2026, Alphabet reported a record $62.6 billion profit, but $28.7 billion nearly half, was just a paper markup on its Anthropic investment. In the same quarter, Amazon reported $30.3 billion in profit, but $16.8 billion of it was just an Anthropic paper gain.

While Amazon reported record profits, its actual free cash flow collapsed 95% to just $1.2 billion because it had to spend $44.2 billion in real cash to build physical data centers.

This has created a massive danger where these giant companies rely heavily on just one or two unstable startups. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion future backlog tied to OpenAI, while Oracle has an incredible 54% of its entire $553 billion pipeline relying on OpenAI alone.

This perfectly mirrors the 2001 dot-com crash when Global Crossing and Qwest Communications swapped identical fiber-optic network capacity with each other just to book fake sales.

Qwest had to erase $1.4 billion in fake income, and Global Crossing went completely bankrupt.

The only difference is that the dot-com swaps were illegal, but today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules.

This legal loop inflates tech company stock prices, forcing automatic retirement accounts and index funds to buy even more of these tech stocks. It is a self feeding loop where investments, sales, and stock prices all go up on paper without the AI technology ever making real cash profits.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

I think this is the more correct take on AI disruption

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@MeidasTouch Uh ohhhh

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@RensingTrades Calls? Puts? Wheel?

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@StockMarketNerd Idk man, the dip is market wide

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

The consumer right now is Popeye if you grounded him from spinach for a a few months.

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

The consumer right now is Popeye if you grounded him from spinach for a a few months.

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@TraderSean_V $SHNY for the win 😂

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@sweatystartup Because it’s set up to disincentivize families

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@TheProfTrades @WheelieInvestor W mindset

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@BujokMr Number only go up

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@Jason @grok @grok where is the consumer spending? Is the consumer being stretched thin due to higher healthcare costs?

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@SullyMichaelvan Dingus

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@amitisinvesting Most of the spending was on healthcare. The consumer is stretched

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@FinanceLancelot What

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@sircalebhammer We have a continent to travel bro it’s not the Netherlands

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@dividendology Wait until you hear about the debasement trade

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@TheAlphaThought Return

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@tnuttin1 I mean if the outcome is you saving money it’s a good thing

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

@amitisinvesting @esaagar I like that perspective

[Gage The Fiscal Sage | Investor @FiscalSage]

Been looking at $TTWO …….

It’s pretty expensive but it might have WAY more room to grow in 2026.

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What's the State of Take-Two Interactive Software With Its Blockbuster Hit Looming in 2026? https://t.co/sG1HZ35ncP