Frank F. Lunn 🟧 “ATLAS Rugged!”

BTCpreneur re: #Bitcoin enTREPreneurship | Proverbs 19:21 Christian | Army Veteran | #BTC & $MSTR for Life, Business, & Legacy!

[Frank F. Lunn 🟧 “ATLAS Rugged!” @flunn]

#Bitcoin is a new paradigm for entrepreneurs to build real wealth with lower risk & complexity vs the traditional wealth hustle(s) of higher risks & complexity (legal, tax, timing, entities, cap. gains, etc.)

#Bitcoin is actually kinda boring… but in the coolest way possible!

[Frank F. Lunn 🟧 “ATLAS Rugged!” @flunn]

@GoingParabolic Still All In on Bitcoin, SIR! 🫡

[Mason @MasonFoard]

The important context behind Strategy selling 32 BTC is S&P.

When S&P assigned Strategy a “B minus” credit rating, it cited reliance on capital markets as a weakness, “particularly since the company is reluctant to sell bitcoin it holds as investments.”

This sale directly rebuts that critique.

Rather than showing a change in treasury philosophy, Strategy showed that BTC is not trapped on the balance sheet. It is a liquid reserve asset that can be accessed when management decides it is economically rational.

[Frank F. Lunn 🟧 “ATLAS Rugged!” @flunn]

I’m usually playing catch up on chats so not super proactive w/ sharing or commenting — train has usually left the station by then. Just want you to know I think you do a great job providing balance in your engagements - even at times disagreeing but without being disagreeable!🫡

[MR SHIFT 🦁 @KevinWSHPod]

E172: @Saylor: Why Hard Work Won't Make You Rich

Michael Saylor is the chairman of @Strategy - the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin with over 840,000 BTC and $65+ billion deployed. He bought his first Bitcoin in 2020 when the Fed cut rates to zero hasn't stopped since.

With WSH, I always want to go much deeper than the current narrative and that’s exactly what we did here. We gradually moved past the surface and into the things that really shaped Michael. We talked about his childhood, growing up in a military family, buying domain names in the 1990s and flipping them for tens of millions, losing $6 billion of his net worth in a single day during the dot-com bubble, his great Apple bet in 2012, why working hard won't make you rich, why you should mortgage your house but probably not sell your kidney to buy BTC, why "THERE IS NO SECOND BEST", and a lot more. The conversation lasted more than two hours, much longer than originally planned, and it was just amazing. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro
03:05 - Explain what you do to an Uber driver
05:35 - Advice for Rick, the struggling Uber driver
07:07 - Who is Michael Saylor?
11:02 - Sponsors @Trezor & @Bitwise
11:48 - Kevin's Business Intelligence Company
13:14 - Michael's childhood and chip on the shoulder
17:56 - Has Michael conquered the world yet?
19:49 - Just because you can, doesn't mean you should
28:23 - Sponsors @KASTxyz & @sumsub
30:02 - Low time preference and scarcity
43:50 - Buying and flipping domain names for tens of millions
55:11 - Bitcoin is a lifeboat
1:01:31 - Should you mortage your house to buy Bitcoin?
1:09:50 - The great $60B in Bitcoin bet: risks
1:15:32 - Sponsors @JupiterExchange , @ethena
1:16:16 - Sell the kidney if you must but keep the Bitcoin
1:20:14 - What's the endgame for Strategy?
1:28:16 - Where does Bitcoin price end?
1:29:36 - Where would Bitcoin price be without Michael Saylor?
1:31:06 - What is STRC?
1:35:34 - Should my mom put her life savings in STRC?
1:37:12 - How do you always invent new ways to buy more Bitcoin?
1:49:19 - From God to Madman every 6 months: handling insane volatility
1:51:49 - How Michael lost $6 Billion of his net worth in one single day in 2000 and then watched MSTR go down another 99%
1:59:09 - Why Michael doesn't have children
1:59:44 - Why working hard is the worst advice you can get
2:07:37 - Why THERE IS NO SECOND BEST, there is only one crypto asset
2:15:03 - Thanking Michael from the whole crypto industry

[The Hurdle Rate Podcast @HurdleRatePod]

Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate.

Episode 60: The Math of Amplification

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the latest corporate Bitcoin market activity and Strive's growing Bitcoin holdings, before turning to Strategy's Bitcoin sale and what the balance sheet math actually reveals about risk and permanent impairment. We dig into historical bear market scenarios, how to manage amplification ratios, and the product management and demand dynamics shaping the treasury company landscape. We close with a deeper look at what digital credit actually is and why it matters for the road ahead.

Here's the latest with
@TimKotzman, @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, and @Werkman

00:00 - Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate

02:26 - Analysis of Strategy's Debt Retirement

10:48 - Capital Structure and Market Perception

21:57 - Strive's Bitcoin Holdings Update

23:26 - SATA Daily Dividends Launch

31:40 - Strive Market Cap and Efficiency

33:14 - Ecosystem Cooperation and Voting

42:04 - New Federal Reserve Chair Outlook

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Final week to vote for twice-monthly dividends. If you haven’t voted, please do so now. We believe this upgrade helps make Digital Credit better for $BTC, $MSTR, and $STRC. Please share with other holders. We need your support. https://t.co/0QObDgFH5w

[Frank F. Lunn 🟧 “ATLAS Rugged!” @flunn]

@bariksis Maybe we all need to start doing our push-ups again so we can get back to $100K & beyond! 😉

[Chaitanya Jain @CJ_Bitcoin]

$BTC transformed @Strategy into a Sovereign Corporation. We preserve and grow capital across time, operate independent of monetary debasement and financing coercion, and think in generations, not quarters. $MSTR

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

MSTR from $149 to $14,368 dollars per share is BEARISH.

Assumptions:

$2B/month preferred issuance (they're already doing this)

11.5% preferred cost (they never lower the rate, lol)

30% BTC CAGR (power law CAGR)

1.32x CEBE mNAV (multiple NEVER expands)

Also, they NEVER issue common stock MSTR to buy more Bitcoin.

Start today:

843,738 BTC
573,757 common equity BTC
163,144 CEBE sats/share
$158.97 implied price

Year 14:

2,064,691 BTC
1,942,234 common equity BTC
374,504 CEBE sats/share
$14,368.51 implied price

That is 90.4x in the model.

Preferred balance goes from $15.5B to $351.5B.

Senior claims fall from 270K BTC to 122K BTC.

Claim ratio falls from 32.0% to 5.9%.

This means they have so much room to issue more credit given this Bitcoin growth rate.

Common equity BTC rises by 1.37M BTC.

CEBE sats/share rise 129.6%.

Shares rise 47.5%.

If the Bitcoin treasury compounds faster than the fiat claims, the capital structure becomes a machine that transfers residual Bitcoin exposure back to common equity.

This is Ownership Acceleration.

CEBE is the scoreboard.

Bullish Strategy.

See you in 2040:

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

We are not trying to optimize away every last basis point of risk.

There is a meaningful difference between reducing the probability of failure from 10% to 1% and reducing it from 0.02% to 0.01%.

The latter may technically cut risk in half, but from an expected value perspective it is immaterial if the tradeoff is materially lower upside.

$ASST $SATA

[Ben Werkman @Werkman]

We are back with another episode of @HurdleRatePod where we discuss the recent debt retirement from Strategy, SATA momentum, and much more. Enjoy!

[Cris Reed 🎙️Bitcoin Mindset Podcast @CrisReed]

Any shares appreciated

Ready to build

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

I’m sick of it. The Bitcoin gloom and disappointment. Don’t you see what is underway?

When you close your eyes, there’s one number you should see in your mind: $500T of fiat assets.

That’s how much global asset value is sitting in Bonds (fixed income) & Money (M2 fiat currency). Why does that matter?

Because that giant reservoir of ~½ the world’s asset value contains the potential energy necessary to power hyperbitcoinization.

This is what Saylor sees.

But do you see it yet?

Consider Hoover Dam. The reservoir behind it contains 12 TWh of usable hydroelectric energy – it just looks like one big lake, calm and placid. But if you stick a pipe through that damn and put a turbine generator in the middle of it and let the water run through it… you can generate enough energy to power the city of Las Vegas for 5 years.

That’s potential energy. Stored, untapped power. And by removing the barrier for the water to flow towards a lower energy state, you can harness the pent up power of the reservoir.

This same mental model works for capital.

A high Sharpe ratio is the financial analogue of a low-energy equilibrium state. Capital flows downhill, always seeking lower risk per unit of return.

(Yes, I know everyone thinks about it as “highest return per unit of risk”, but this is the equivalent and helps understand the physical metaphor)

Do you see it yet?

Think about all the capital parked in fixed income instruments or money market funds. All of this capital is parked there because it has historically provided an acceptable trade-off of modest nominal returns for minimal risk.

The entire premise of fixed income is “here’s a way to park cash in low-risk instruments that will generate a positive return slightly greater than inflation.” Adjacent to this asset category is “cash and cash equivalents” where the value proposition is somewhat smaller returns in exchange for even less risk.

And over the decades, a steady stream of capital has found its way into these asset buckets that promise low risk and modest nominal returns via future fiat cashflows.

These buckets have become a giant fiat reservoir, brimming with nearly $500T of capital.

Do you see it yet?

Along comes Strategy. @saylor realizes that much of this $500T of capital would be better off if it flowed into Bitcoin. But Saylor also recognizes that this reservoir of capital is inherently constrained. Boxed in by convention, investment mandates, risk management, volatility aversion, etc.

It won’t flow to Bitcoin on its own. It can’t – it’s walled off, dammed up.

Strategy engineers a solution. Creates a product to meet that capital where it’s at. The $500T fiat asset reservoir wants low risk, low volatility, fiat cash flows. Strategy designs preferred equity instruments that solve for these constraints, while Strategy uses the fiat capital proceeds to buy Bitcoin (which it believes will appreciate at 29% CAGR for the next 20 years).

In exchange for capital today, STRC offers 11.5% annual returns with volatility asymptotically approaching 0. The Sharpe ratio is off the charts. It breaks everything in tradfi portfolio allocation. At first glance, it seems impossible. But it works because it’s not powered by risk-taking layered on top of fiat inflation; it’s powered by the ongoing monetization of a superior monetary asset whose endogenous properties ensure its appreciation when valued in fiat currency units over time.

Saylor terms this kind of Bitcoin-powered fixed income offering “Digital Credit.”

When a commodity flows from a high-energy state to a low-energy state, it releases energy. In the case of Hoover Dam, that energy can be used to power a hydroelectric turbine. In the case of Bitcoin treasury companies with Digital Credit offerings, that energy can be used to power shareholder returns for common equity holders. This can happen in every major capital market in the world.

Do you see it yet?

Strategy has stuck a pipe through the dam. A conduit through which capital can flow out of the Fiat Asset Reservoir and towards a low-energy equilibrium state. Digital Credit offerings (e.g., STRC, SATA, and others) create that value proposition.

And what’s the Total Addressable Market (TAM)? All $500T of fiat assets in the reservoir.

The recent SpaceX IPO Prospectus recently made a splash by claiming the company had a combined $28.5T TAM, proclaiming that this was the “largest TAM in human history.”

But my essay from 2023 titled “Bitcoin’s Full Potential Valuation” already articulated how Bitcoin’s TAM is all value itself, above and beyond the usual lens of annual economic activity across industries. Saylor read it, adopted it for his presentations, and built on it with the Bitcoin24 valuation model.

The SpaceX Prospectus is wrong. Bitcoin has the largest TAM in human history.

And Digital Credit has the second largest TAM in human history – the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir.

Do you see it yet?

Digital Credit offerings will redirect some % of the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir into Bitcoin. This will happen because the value proposition of Digital Credit offerings is higher Sharpe than anything I am aware of in the entire $500T reservoir, inflation-adjusted.

Think of it as the Second Law of Capital Dynamics: capital flows toward assets offering superior risk-adjusted returns.

If Digital Credit ingests 1% over the coming decades, that’s $5T. It seems unreasonably pessimistic to think that only 1% of the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir would be interested in vastly better returns with a similar (or better) risk profile.

Let’s say Digital Credit appeals to a (still-conservative) 10% of the $500T fiat asset reservoir, that’s $50T.

Bitcoin is currently a $1.5T asset.

Do you see it yet?

Digital Credit may direct a torrent of $50T of capital into Bitcoin over the coming decades. All of it bidding for a finite supply of Bitcoin.

The scale of that inflow would likely drive Bitcoin’s valuation to $10m/BTC, or ~$200T total.

Digital Credit is the plumbing of hyperbitcoinization.

This is how it happens – you’re watching the early stages of Bitcoin’s monetization megatrend.

The question is: do you see it? Or will it have to play out first?

[Frank F. Lunn 🟧 “ATLAS Rugged!” @flunn]

Brilliant!! 🤯

[Frank F. Lunn 🟧 “ATLAS Rugged!” @flunn]

I’m here for it…all of it! 🫡

[Mason @MasonFoard]

“This is personal. It’s not about the money anymore. I want to fix things. - @PunterJeff

Amen, Jeff.

[Natalie Brunell ⚡️ @natbrunell]

Strive just did something no public company has ever done.

$SATA is paying shareholders a 13% DAILY Bitcoin-backed dividend.

The first daily dividend in stock market history.

Full breakdown with $ASST’s Chief Risk Officer @PunterJeff 👇🏼

Timestamps:
00:00 SATA: The First U.S. Listed Security to Pay Daily Dividends
8:51 Strive Enters Top 10 Bitcoin Holder Ranks
10:39 Strive's Daily Dividends Beating $MSTR To It... What's the Catch?
11:21 Why Don't More Companies Pay Daily Dividends?
13:15 Structuring Daily Capital Asset Distributions
14:01 What is Digital Credit?
16:30 How is $SATA Able to Pay 13% Yield?
19:21 Strive is Re-Establishing Trust
21:08 Bitcoin Digital Credit Insurance Analogy
28:35 History of Strive
34:51 Why Traditional Income Investing Models Are Failing Retail Investors
37:51 The 2008 Financial Crisis Tore His Family Apart
46:35 Betting Everything on MSTR Options: Making 2000%
52:14 How Jeff Thinks About His Portfolio Now

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

🔥STRK: THE BEST VALUE IN BITCOIN - GET PAID TO WAIT TO GET RICH?!?🔥

Everyone is staring at STRC for the yield and STRF for the seniority, while STRK is sitting in the corner like a chemically enhanced preferred stock with a concealed MSTR call option taped under its trench coat.

In this video, I break down why STRK might be one of the most slept-on securities in the Strategy capital stack, how its yield compares to STRC and STRF, and why the conversion option could become absurdly valuable if Strategy keeps compounding Bitcoin exposure per share.

STRC is income. STRF is senior income.

STRK might be income with a Saylor-powered moon launcher attached.

Not financial advice. I am just a man watching the fiat retirement complex get folded into a Bitcoin meat grinder:

[Frank F. Lunn 🟧 “ATLAS Rugged!” @flunn]

@AdamBLiv Oh no — FYI: I clicked to the link so I could share this content & got, “This video has been removed for violating YouTube's Community Guidelines” message. 😡

[Frank F. Lunn 🟧 “ATLAS Rugged!” @flunn]

@AdamBLiv Thank you Adam — I really needed to hear this brilliant analysis re: $STRK! Quick question for those of us w/smooth brains… does auto-DRIP make much of a difference between now & the potential timeline for conversion?

Thanks for your continuous content & thought leadership!🫡