Flying at Dusk

Political Economy, Geo-politics/economics, Self-government. Cyber Tech Exec.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

The Economic Consequences of China Shock 2.0

Without a fundamental and rapid change in the US-China economic relationship, the American people can expect another decade of slow growth, withering industry, and spiraling debt. (1/n)

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[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@KanekoaTheGreat I don't doubt their capabilities, but there are supply chain constraints in building terrestrial compute facilities that are more binding when compared to building launch capacity. Nevertheless, glad he's on Team USA.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@DLoesch This guy and people like him are exactly why we have the 2nd Amendment.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@SohrabAhmari Exactly. Global labor arbitrage brought disinflation, and reversing that will bring supply-side price pressures. And higher real rates to restrain demand won't cure the problem, they will only treat the symptom by inducing recession. The real cure requires a different medicine.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@RobSchneider Just another example of Alinsky's manifesto for radicals that the issue is never the issue, the issue is always the revolution.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Warsh at the IMF: Growth Meets the Hammer

Kevin Warsh offered the right diagnosis in his IMF interview: “The investment surge isn’t by accident.” “Policy matters.” He should follow that insight to its conclusion: Trump’s America First policies are helping build the microeconomic foundations needed to escape secular stagnation.

For years, the prescription was more demand. Bernanke discussed helicopter money; Krugman championed fiscal stimulus. My objection is that stimulating expenditure within a globalized economy was no substitute for making America a more attractive place to build, manufacture, and invest. To be blunt decades of Keynesian demand side, helicopter money was an abject failure.

Trump and Bessent’s Hamiltonian approach changes those incentives. The 100% deduction for qualifying production facilities, with its January 2031 placed-in-service deadline, rewards domestic capital formation. Combined with AI, America First offers a route to escape secular stagnation to expanding productive capital and the re tooling of America.

Why do so many on Wall Street and inside central banks miss this? Too often, their framework starts with aggregate spending, employment, and inflation, not the changing incentives beneath them. Strong growth becomes a warning to tighten rather than a reason to reassess the economy’s productive limits.

Hall and Woodford’s Nobel-recognized work underscores why microfoundations matter. Businesses respond to expected returns and incentives. Their decisions shape macroeconomic outcomes.

Greenspan understood this. He recognized productivity improvements before the statistics confirmed them and resisted pressure for further tightening in 1996. Warsh acknowledged the same possibility at the IMF, calling AI “a positive supply shock in the medium term.”

Yet he is failing the policy test. Hiking into an oil-induced negative growth shock is a mistake: demand-management dogma applied to a supply disruption.

September’s core CPI makes the problem concrete. Shelter accounted for roughly three-fifths of its monthly increase. Higher rates can make construction harder to finance, delaying the supply response needed to ease rents.

This is a transition, not an overheating machine. Productivity gains arrive unevenly; borrowing costs hit exposed borrowers immediately. Monetary policy is a blunt hammer, striking housing, smaller businesses, and debt refinancing.

Escaping stagnation should support a more normal yield curve. It does not justify crushing today’s cyclical economy.

Warsh sees the investment boom. He must recognize its policy foundations and stop obstructing its diffusion.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

Truer words never spoken.

[Anti Kommunistic @antikommunistic]

The most dangerous person in history is an intellectual with zero real-world experience who believes they are smart enough to engineer human society from a desk.

They don't understand supply chains, price signals, or human drive, yet they demand absolute veto power over your life.

Hubris kills millions.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@LeeKuanYimby Of course. Historical fact.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@WallStreetApes On the whole, a group of people that couldn't defend themselves from an angry house cat. Self-government ends with such meekness.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@realMaalouf @Erling , what say you? Is this true, and if it is, why are Norwegian men allowing this to happen?

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@jeremy_maxie Mitch's understanding of the R economic philosophy seems to begin with Reagan, who was right at the time to say govt is the problem. But Rs have never been dogmatic free market ideologists; they are the party of protective tariffs.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@FreedomVoL He's spot on, in both why intellectuals gravitate to the left, and why, if they just pushed their thinking a little further they would break on through to the other side. These messy, irrational things called human beings will forever frustrate their grand rationalistic plans.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@PhilipReichert Creating future socialists because they don't have the skills to earn a living, who then become totalitarian communists because, well, that's where socialism always ends. There are various cadres of socialists and wannabe oligarchs who think they will ride this wave to power.

[Mark W. @DurhamWASP]

“With the loss of tradition we have lost the thread which safely guided us through the vast realms of the past…”

Hannah Arendt, born 14th October 1906

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@springfield1952 Because she's the apotheosis of the international grifter class and doesn't care a wit about America or the system of self-government and ordered liberty we are trying to preserve.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@Bigmilez7 British humor of the period was so good. "Oh, Minister," for example. Is that the later Dr. House?

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@TPCarney It's vibe reality.... she feels like it's true so it must be. Facts are mere artifice and sophistry.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@SteveCortes Just the tip of the iceberg.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@craigkellyAFEE Elites all over the west are terrified. For decades they've controlled the flow of information, i.e., they've been the arbiters of truth, the source of their power and control. They've now lost that power and fear the consequences.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@DailyMail And to think how close the US was to establishing a liberal democracy in Afghanistan. With another $2 Trillion and 20 more years it was a sure thing.

[Flying at Dusk @flying_dusk]

@ajphelo Yes, beware of foreign emissaries bearing gifts - especially industrial gifts form China.