fredmiracle

Dreaming of a smarter and more compassionate world

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@shashj @BowenBBC I have no knowledge of the situation, but when the hospital attack began, I hoped Israeli leadership hadn't forgotten the sad spectacle of US troops scouring Iraq for nonexistent WMDs...

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@amirtibon I agree with all your points on Hamas depravity. But for 20 years, Israeli policy in the West Bank has looked a lot like a gradual ethnic-cleanse. Alongside the attacks on Hamas, Israel needs to take steps to change that dynamic. But it won't. So, the cycle of death perpetuates.

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@shashj NK sending advisors and arms shipments to prop up Putin's faltering war effort. So, in effect... Russia is now a North Korean satellite state?

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@yarotrof Hamas's atrocities ensured a massive Israeli attack. Now vast killing of civilians by Israel will create another generation of hopeless, violent Palestinian boys. The cycle will keep turning until a large majority on both sides agree to set aside their justified anger & stop it

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@shashj I mean, I haven't heard anyone propose that Russia's cities should be flattened while those 'involved civilians' are still inside. Mostly they get uninvited from conference panels.

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@rosenthal_jon What Hamas did was evil (also clearly tuned to stoke endless violence). But in couple months, 25x more Palestinian civilians will be dead than Israeli. So while I empathize with Israeli fear & anger, we should admit that "what Israel must do" will inevitably perpetuate the cycle

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@YVindman @PhillipsPOBrien The big unknowns are whether (a) it's possible in current SAM environment for an attacker to get air superiority, and (b) that then changes prospects for attacker dramatically. My guess is (a) yes, and (b) it's a whole different ballgame

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@RALee85 @shashj my sense is 155 range is a game changer - simply not enough suitable ordinance to get interdiction at HIMARS range (barring a very special case like Kherson 2022)

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@wartranslated not to defend Kadyrov or his son or anything about justice in Russia, but this has a massive pro-wrestling vibe about it. They do better fight scenes on the Witcher

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@OAlexanderDK Maybe next time the west will not spend a year on mealy-mouthed wavering before doing the obvious thing and providing the useful weapon. Would probably result in less people blabbing...

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@RALee85 @HoansSolo I wonder if that why "small number" - enough / right mix to take out some very specific target (e.g. Kerch)?

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@DefMon3 We should not revel in these things, but we should recognize that these soldiers participated in creating the tragedy that consumed them - whereas the Ukrainians who oppose them did not.

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@PhillipsPOBrien Elon has a real bot fixation. (I'm sure there's some psychological explanation related to his father...)

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@PhillipsPOBrien what might emerge is a rerun of 2016 left-centrist infighting which leaves the ultimate survivor even more compromised against Trump than Biden ever was

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@oryxspioenkop M551 Sheridan. Not a great tank, but ya gotta love "the first and only combat air-drop of tanks in history"

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@dburbach @shashj new book idea: "Profiles in Cowardice"

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@PhillipsPOBrien the things I have concerns about are (1) artillery ammo, and (2) cumulative fatigue & general troop morale / quality

(of course these cut both ways, but attacking normally creates more friction)

[Euan MacDonald @Euan_MacDonald]

The same people who are telling us Putin is a dangerous lunatic ready to unleash a nuclear war if Ukraine takes back its territory are also telling us the dictator is a reasonable and trustworthy man who is ready to negotiate peace in good faith.

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@ELuttwak In 1940, Britain couldn't sweep the German army from the field. Hitler couldn't lose because a reversion to the status quo would lose him the Reichstag & all. What was needed was an all-out US diplomatic drive. FDR could have denied Churchill what he wanted. Why didn't he act?!

[fredmiracle @fredmiracle2]

@DefMon3 We never had the info to judge the Bakhmut decision. Was it the best ground for Ukr to defend, all considered? What were the attrition rates? What morale/public opinion factors were considered (& how grounded were they)? I think Western blather on the topic is just hot air.