fullchill

I track crypto projects and look for new opportunities before the crowd. Sharing what I’ve tested myself.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

Thanks to everyone who tried to help. But I don’t think anything can be done here, and the money won’t come back.

Honestly, it’s about what I made from betting arbitrage. Not pleasant, but oh well :)

[fullchill @fullchilled]

I GOT DRAINED...

It was bound to happen sooner or later. Yesterday one of the biggest fears in crypto caught up with me: around $33,000 was stolen from an old wallet that’s almost 6 years old.

I don’t know how exactly. It’s definitely not an old approval: I revoke approvals on all my wallets every couple of months. The wallet is 6 years old, so there’s no way to trace the cause now.

I created it in 2020 in MetaMask, then imported it into Trust Wallet, SafePal, OKX Wallet, Bitget Wallet and Rabby. For the last 2 years I barely used it, just as a pass-through, but there was always money sitting there, sometimes more, sometimes less.

Maybe another old database leaked, or someone used AI to hack me and got the private key. If they had the seed phrase, they would have taken more: a couple of other old wallets are on the same seed.

It’s a really strange drain. They only took ETH and USDT, even though the wallet still had old junk tokens worth another $1–2K. Looks like someone withdrew manually.

Since 2024 I kept wondering when it would be my turn. Now I got the wake-up call. Looks like it’s time to move to multisigs, otherwise there’s a real chance of waking up broke one day. But for an arbitrage trader mobility is everything, which is why I always avoided multisigs: at the key moment you just won’t move funds in time and you’ll miss the opportunity.

Since last night I’ve been moving funds from all my ERC wallets to exchanges (Binance, OKX, Bybit, Gate). I have a lot of wallets: I switch to new ones every 6–12 months to lower the chance of getting hit by a scam, and I usually make a separate wallet for each activity. I also tend to leave junk on balances, so over the years I’ve piled up lots of wallets with small amounts. Time to clean them all out.

A full audit and setting up new wallets will take about a week, because some funds are in DeFi and restaking where withdrawals take 1–2 weeks.

If even Binance, Bitget and Bybit can’t protect themselves, what is a regular guy like me supposed to do? I’ve always diversified, but after this drain I’m heavily skewed toward exchanges: about 70% of my capital is there now. I’ll think about the best move. Maybe this is the sign to take some capital out of crypto and into real assets.

Either way, keep your money in a cold wallet, a multisig or on an exchange. There are no truly safe places anymore.

Better safe than sorry.

Funny thing: I recently made $30,966 in 75 days using arbitrage betting and less than 24 hours later, more than that amount got stolen from me 🤡

[fullchill @fullchilled]

Good breakdown, but saying user funds are completely safe skips a key point. The team covering losses from their own pocket is just damage control after basic internal ledger checks failed. If an exchange lets fake subaccount transfers hit actual on-chain withdrawals, systemic risk was there all along.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

I GOT DRAINED...

It was bound to happen sooner or later. Yesterday one of the biggest fears in crypto caught up with me: around $33,000 was stolen from an old wallet that’s almost 6 years old.

I don’t know how exactly. It’s definitely not an old approval: I revoke approvals on all my wallets every couple of months. The wallet is 6 years old, so there’s no way to trace the cause now.

I created it in 2020 in MetaMask, then imported it into Trust Wallet, SafePal, OKX Wallet, Bitget Wallet and Rabby. For the last 2 years I barely used it, just as a pass-through, but there was always money sitting there, sometimes more, sometimes less.

Maybe another old database leaked, or someone used AI to hack me and got the private key. If they had the seed phrase, they would have taken more: a couple of other old wallets are on the same seed.

It’s a really strange drain. They only took ETH and USDT, even though the wallet still had old junk tokens worth another $1–2K. Looks like someone withdrew manually.

Since 2024 I kept wondering when it would be my turn. Now I got the wake-up call. Looks like it’s time to move to multisigs, otherwise there’s a real chance of waking up broke one day. But for an arbitrage trader mobility is everything, which is why I always avoided multisigs: at the key moment you just won’t move funds in time and you’ll miss the opportunity.

Since last night I’ve been moving funds from all my ERC wallets to exchanges (Binance, OKX, Bybit, Gate). I have a lot of wallets: I switch to new ones every 6–12 months to lower the chance of getting hit by a scam, and I usually make a separate wallet for each activity. I also tend to leave junk on balances, so over the years I’ve piled up lots of wallets with small amounts. Time to clean them all out.

A full audit and setting up new wallets will take about a week, because some funds are in DeFi and restaking where withdrawals take 1–2 weeks.

If even Binance, Bitget and Bybit can’t protect themselves, what is a regular guy like me supposed to do? I’ve always diversified, but after this drain I’m heavily skewed toward exchanges: about 70% of my capital is there now. I’ll think about the best move. Maybe this is the sign to take some capital out of crypto and into real assets.

Either way, keep your money in a cold wallet, a multisig or on an exchange. There are no truly safe places anymore.

Better safe than sorry.

Funny thing: I recently made $30,966 in 75 days using arbitrage betting and less than 24 hours later, more than that amount got stolen from me 🤡

[fullchill @fullchilled]

@OG_Branxi tvl already dropped by about 35% in the first 24 hours after the incident. even with the treasury covering the hole, open interest usually takes months to recover from subaccount exploit bugs like this.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

It blows my mind how people still fade this reality. Watching giants like BlackRock and Fidelity literally lay the rails on Ethereum while retail obsesses over outdated hard cap memes is wild. When that fee burn kicks into overdrive with real RWA adoption, the supply shock will be completely unprecedented.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

people really wrote the whole chain off just because of who backed it, totally ignoring the tech underneath. watched it bleed out and everyone panicking, but real builders just kept shipping through the noise. lesson is simple: sentiment lies during black swans, conviction pays off.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

It drives me insane too. Teams barely ship a v1 and the timeline is already calling it dead because it didn't do 10m in volume on day one. It just forces everyone to launch stupid ponzinomics and point systems just to survive the first week instead of actually iterating on real retention.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

@punkquidity the hidden trap here is that buybacks during declining revenue actually destroy treasury runway faster. protocols end up burning cash at local tops of their own market cap instead of hoarding stable reserves to fund the exact pivots or fresh catalysts needed to survive.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

@me_cool_off @variational_io Interesting to see the Polymarket odds cool off like that across every tier. If the numbers slip another 10-15% right before listing, would you take that as a clear signal to stay away entirely, or would you treat the lower expectations as a solid entry point?

[fullchill @fullchilled]

@0xpostrich That ratio is brutal, 1 point per 51k hurts to see even when winding down. Crazy how fast the dilution kicks in.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

Directional trading in choppy conditions is the fastest way to bleed capital, but perp spreads and funding rates are offering massive delta-neutral yield right now.

While retail users chase memecoin rallies and take directional hits, systematic traders are setting up multi-venue carry trades across tokenless perp exchanges. The play is straightforward: identify an asset like single stocks, tech equities, or volatile mid-caps where funding diverges heavily between platforms. Going long on a venue offering negative funding while shorting on a platform charging positive funding collects yield from both sides simultaneously, leaving directional exposure at flat zero.

Even with moderate leverage between 3x and 5x, annualized funding returns on pairs like Micron or Nvidia have spiked past 300% to 400% during periods of high equity volatility. Add in the hidden benefit of qualifying for retroactive volume programs on platforms competing for market share, and the risk-to-reward clearly outperforms standard directional gambling.

The real discipline isn't calling tops and bottoms. It is monitoring spreads, rebalancing slippage, and harvesting funding while sleeping peacefully.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

Prediction markets have stopped being a playground for casual political bets and turned into an algorithmic meat grinder.

Over a recent period tracking connected outcomes, automated systems extracted 2.5 million dollars in pure profit across roughly 125,000 executable setups. When basic probability logic broke, such as over 3.5 goals trading higher than over 2.5 goals, bots locked in a guaranteed 2.2 percent return after fees. The typical pricing window lasted three seconds before execution erased it.

We see the exact same precision on high-frequency 5-minute crypto markets. Empirical testing showed median reaction times on Polymarket lagged major Binance spot shifts by barely 151 milliseconds. The true delay came from external data feeds and oracle settlement, not order book participants.

While human participants argue about election polls and celebrity headlines, automated capital operates on pure relative value across thousands of contracts. If you trade these venues manually without automated tooling, you are not finding edge: you are providing liquidity to those who do.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

@Codedscientist Sitting on billions you stole but knowing you can never cash out without getting caught is the ultimate curse.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

@zhapy125 pure python execution loops easily lost 50ms per fill back then. crazy how rewriting the book parser in rust later cut that to https://t.co/ixg0itdDlf first Python bot had a 400ms loop delay and lost 15% on slippage alone. Moving off it was night and day.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

@xmayeth so it just scoops panic dumps across the ladder and clips safe yields at the top. simple market making always prints until huge trending slippage hits.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

@bramsPM prediction markets are the only place left where your edge actually matters instead of just waiting for exit liquidity

[fullchill @fullchilled]

Before you value your perps farming allocation at hundreds of dollars per point, run the actual market clearing math.

Variational expanded its open interest caps across TradFi perps threefold, supported by upgrades to its Omni Liquidity Provider infrastructure. Platform stats look formidable: the DEX printed over $70B in 30-day volume and is currently handling hundreds of millions in open interest alongside competitors like TradeXYZ and Hyperliquid.

However, hype across private communities is heavily disconnected from pricing realities. Prediction markets tell a sober story regarding post-launch valuation: the odds of settling at an $800M FDV sit near 72%, a $1B FDV has around 57% implied probability, and a $2B launch sits at roughly 25%.

With 32% of token supply allocated to points in the Genesis distribution and community models projecting between 10M and 11.5M points issued by TGE, the math remains straightforward:

At a $1B FDV, each point is worth roughly $28 to $32.
At a $1.5B FDV, the value lands near $42 to $48.
To see $200 per point, the network would need to command an immediate $6B to $7B FDV from day one without aggressive supply cuts.

Farming perps is never completely free. Between order book spreads, slippage, and funding rate flips, real acquisition costs typically run between $5 and $15 per point. Trading with clear risk boundaries beats relying on inflated chatroom valuations every single time.

[fullchill @fullchilled]

@appledog_xyz @Polymarket @betmoardotfun @PolymarketTrade Same thing happened with the 5-cent spread lag, it used to give an easy 15% daily ROI before everyone ran MEV bots on it.