Aria what do you think about Apple announcing their new digital Creator Studio bundle? Is this not meaningfully detrimental to their moat? I know Apple’s offerings aren’t necessarily enterprise-grade software and I wasn’t worried about single point competitors like Canva but I can see a significant portion of Adobe’s existing customer base switching over due to the ecosystem + network effect of Mac OS being so dominant in the creative industry.
I change my mind on this topic every week but $ASML or $V (yes, over $MA). I could also make the case for $CME or $VRSN in terms of purity but when considering other factors like expected return and growth profiles, $ASML and $V take the cake. While $ASML beats $V on both, technological moats are inherently weaker than structural moats.
I think you were way off with your analysis of ADBE. 90% of ADBE's revenue comes from enterprises - Canva is simply just picking low hanging fruit. Adobe is so entrenched in these companies' workflow that switching to another platform would take years. Add also the fact that the rest of the industry uses Adobe, so you'd need to convince a 100bn+ industry that Canva is the better software, simply because it's cheaper. Alternatives like Canva, GIMP, etc. have been around and yet, Adobe has still grown 15%+ every year for the past decade, so the argument that ADBE's future is challenged by some comparatively juvenile software made for the masses goes against reality. You should really look into Adobe's monopoly in the creative industry because it's right up your alley. It's so much more than just creating Youtube thumbnails or social media campaigns, it's literally an entire ecosystem for creators, from content creation to market analytics.
Here is also some anecdotal evidence on the operational stickiness of Adobe: https://t.co/0W7EvvK9KG
@contrarcap @joecarlsonshow Netflix stock dropping isn’t the market disagreeing or agreeing. When a company acquires another, its stock goes down while the acquired company goes up. This is how merger arb works.
@_KarenHao I’m so glad water scarcity is getting its time in the sun. Sorry to hear about the mistake but thank you for bringing light to this overlooked issue.