g_sobes

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@macrokurd but if they end now or try to exact more pain on the US and Israel, is the domestic calculus the same? and thus not the relevant question?

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@Econ_Parker if you look at the initial release of ADP vs the initial release of BLS private, the fit is much worse

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@Fullcarry i didn’t realize this was from yesterday! unfortunately my twitter feed is getting more and more broken.

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@peruvian_bull supply constrained……

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@peruvian_bull this is misleading. if you look at the LFPR for ages 25-54 we are running at 83.5%, within spitting distance of the highest levels recorded.

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@stevehouf does this wage/rent relationship hold up nearly as well when looking at things ex-covid?

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@BobEUnlimited is this a function of onshore stocks not caring, or them closing before the headlines hit? if Bloomberg is correct, onshore closes at 2:05AM ET and the headlines hit at between 2:20 and 2:30AM ET. HSI, by contrast, is open until 3:15AM ET.

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@macroguru9 he was tapped as ambassador, not the one setting policy on the US/CH relationship.

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@dampedspring i understand the curve shape argument over a longer horizon, but the way you end this piece - that the long end will be "very happy" - coupled with a hawkish stance up front would almost certainly be a flattener, not a steepener.

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@rev_cap you blame the fed for people borrowing money to buy an asset that they can’t afford w/o rates coming down? the fed’s SEP that show cuts are described relentlessly as ‘not a promise’ and the average home buyer almost certainly isn’t looking at them anyway. why is this their fault?

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@macrotwain saudi production news…

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@Aureliusltd28 agreed, though not wanting to sell to MTM the liability seems like an immensely reasonable decision if that’s your debt structure.

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@Aureliusltd28 except if you’re sitting on a 3% mortgage you’re up, not down

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@EconBerger check out private construction wages … sharp sequential drop which seems pretty strange. wonder if some bad data in here, even though ECI is among the better wage metrics we have.

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@macroguru9 with 30-35 bps of cuts priced in ‘24, and those cuts not until late in the year, i’m not sure this is hawkish. arguably, if powell’s message is that the fed’s on hold for many months - until they have a lot more data - it should be a vol killer, and i’m not sure risk hates that.

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@macrokurd it would be surprising to hear much else from him after his last speech. what i took away from yesterday’s meeting was that there were no dissents — including him — and so perhaps a more neutral (rather than dovish) read of the statement was appropriate.

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@EconBerger personally i would argue that given their recent communications mistakes, Powell reiterating his message from the press conference last week is an important signal. he’s telling us that nothing he said was a mistake, particularly the March comment.

[g_sobes @g_sobes]

@Marcomadness2 the RMB is not appreciating rapidly on either a trade-weighted or USDCNY basis. this doesn’t change the fact that the econ is v weak, but a too-strong currency isn’t the story. in fact, looking at the real effective exchange rate, it’s sitting at the lows (chart below).