Major cheat code for life: Believe that things will work out for you. Not blindly, but through effort. When you expect good things and pair it with action, you start noticing opportunities others miss. Optimism paired with effort is a powerful force.
It can't really be any other way. You have to try on a few roles and a few costumes to understand the nature of the performance, playing the part of the schoolboy or the lover "sighing like a furnace" or one seeking his fortune and the "bubble of reputation".
But, all are performances. People enter and exit from the stage of your life while you move deeper to fix on what is real. Once you have sloughed off these masks and this makeup, you find the evanescence of Life, sifting through your fingers. What is this Life? Who am I?
By mid-life you have acquired the experiences and the wounds and the few hard-won truths that invite deeper reflection.
Bill Ackman is rightโฆ
2005-2020, globalisation and Chinese urbanisation caused 15 years of global deflation and a long era of ZIRP.
2025-2045, AI will likely cause a long period of deflation (big productivity gains) and likely a long era of ZIRP.
The West mostly failed to make use of the first ZIRP era, we didnโt understand it. We did not replace and upgrade our infrastructure, we did not roll SovX far into the future.
I expect we will not repeat this mistake, during the AI buildout.
A huge amount of infrastructure is going to be built over the next 20 years, backed with long dated cheap bonds.
This is the monetary and fiscal structure of the era we find ourselves in. You are now leaving the eye of the storm.