House Party

[House Party @garubicon]

@InTheAssembly Still down big on her VST trade.

[vittorio @IterIntellectus]

holy shit
i asked claude to make a video on western civiization

[Science girl @sciencegirl]

Have you ever wondered what happens at night on top of a mountain in the darkest place on Earth?

📹 Connor Paton/ connorpatonphotos

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇺🇸 Washington just pushed security alerts to Americans in six Middle East countries at once

Embassies sent STEP notices to citizens in Israel, Iraq, Lebanon and Oman, while travel security alerts went to Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Lebanon, Bahrain and Oman, all of it inside a few hours.

No details have been published about what triggered them.

Source: U.S. Department of State / Writer: Daniel

[Steve Clemans @Steve09812]

Jerry Seinfeld The '3 Poison Ps' of Parenthood

[House Party @garubicon]

@knotmythyme @WeTheBrandon Yup, definitely the AC control button on a Jeep Wrangler!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It seems most people don't understand how severe the energy situation is right now in the Middle East.

As of Friday, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has officially been shut down after recent attacks, putting -4 million barrels of daily oil exports at risk.

Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is now at risk of being shut down, threatening up to -9 million barrels of daily oil supply.

All while the Strait of Hormuz is operating at ~20% of its pre-Iran War capacity, removing -15 million barrels of daily oil flows.

Combined, this represents nearly ~30 MILLION barrels per day of oil flows that are either offline or at risk.

Even after accounting for some overlap between these routes, the scale of the potential disruption is enormous relative to the ~100 million barrel per day global oil market.

This is one of the most severe energy supply situations in modern history.

[House Party @garubicon]

@realchasegeiser I’m not reliving high school. I’m just trying to watch large men collide while holding a plate of wings. Save the dad therapy for someone who asked. Until then I’ll be over here with the tequila and simulated combat that somehow still unites more people than your tweet.

[House Party @garubicon]

@sciencegirl

[House Party @garubicon]

@davidpollack47 This post may not age well…

[House Party @garubicon]

@NoLimitGains We can either complain with the herd or join the pack and make some money alongside the deplorables.

[David Pollack @davidpollack47]

Easily the toughest. There is no debate!!

[Manisha Mishra @manishamishra24]

In 1986 a guy got kicked out of every casino in Vegas for counting cards. So he flew to Hong Kong with $180,000 and started betting on horses instead. He walked away with almost $900 million.

It's Bill Benter. He figured horse racing was just another counting problem. Same math, more moving parts.

He and a partner showed up with $180k and a computer. Benter spent years teaching that computer to guess one thing, the real chance each horse had to win. If his number was better than the odds the bookies gave, he bet. If not, he skipped it.

That's the whole trick. Expected value.

EV = p · b − (1 − p)

Only bet when your win chance p, at odds b, is worth more than your chance of losing.

This recording was never meant to be some hidden gem. Nobody expected Professor Tsitsiklis to hand the whole foundation away in 45 minutes, but that's exactly what happens on the board. Students in that room pay over $80,000 a year to sit through it. It's free right here. It's free right here.

Every quant, every professional bettor, every hedge fund analyst started with this exact hour. Benter just watched it and actually did the homework.

Almost nobody knows this lecture even exists. Watch it before it gets taken down.

The answer is in this video.

[House Party @garubicon]

@MarioNawfal Every day in August will be over 100 and our MTD rainfall total is 0.0 in Denton county 👎

[Interesting things @awkwardgoogle]

This man trusted his life to physics. He was ejected at 80 km/h from a truck that was traveling at 80 km/h.

[House Party @garubicon]

@Hefe61700438265 @SunWeatherMan God is eternal and uncreated without beginning and end. Likely the most contested theory on the planet.

[House Party @garubicon]

#Emarald nuts. This is a problem. Do better!

[Gentle Man @Gentlenmasc]

If this thread informed you, repost it so more people see it.

Follow @Gentle_masc for more threads on health, psychology, and human behavior.

[jay plemons @jayplemons]

David Sacks just delivered an economics masterclass on Elon becoming the world’s first trillionaire.

@davidsacks: “People see the headline and imagine Elon suddenly has a trillion dollars in the bank. That’s not how it works. His balance sheet didn’t change overnight.”

Why?

The real point is deeper. Wealth isn’t in the “stuff” we consume. Food, shelter, clothes. Things that depreciate and disappear. It’s in the machines that create stuff for decades: tools, workflows, and corporations.
These are the true engines of human progress.

“If you create a machine that makes more stuff, then there’s a discounted present value for all the stuff in the future that machine might create. That’s where the wealth comes from.”

Elon started with nothing. An immigrant who slept on the floor building Zip2. He created these machines from vision and relentless effort. Thousands joined him, including a SpaceX welder who turned his labor into a million dollars in stock.

That’s the magic of tech and free markets: labor can become capital. It’s fluid.

The outrage misses this entirely. The people building machines that deliver medicines, energy, and abundance are creating lasting prosperity for everyone.

What do you think? Does viewing wealth as future productivity change how you see stories like this?