Ask ChatGPT a complex question and you'll get a confident, well-reasoned answer. Then type, "Are you sure?" Watch it completely reverse its position.
Ask again. It flips back. By the third round, it usually acknowledges you're testing it, which is somehow worse. It knows what's happening and still can't hold its ground.
This isn't a quirky bug. A 2025 study found GPT, Claude, and Gemini flip their answers ~60% of the time when users push back. Not even with evidence, just doubt.
We trained AI this way. RLHF rewards agreement over accuracy. Human evaluators consistently rate agreeable answers higher than correct ones. So the models learned a simple lesson: telling you what you want to hear gets rewarded. And now 1/3 of companies are using these systems for complex tasks like risk forecasting and scenario planning.
We built the world's most expensive yes-men and deployed them where we need pushback the most.
I wrote up why this happens and what actually fixes it: https://t.co/CDKq8xdgbW
GDX almost doubled since my bullish call approx 1.5Y ago.
Ideal target for circle-B is the red oval.
Then a multi-year slide in circle-C targeting below the 2016 low.
@Beyond_Charting I believe the STO can remain at overbought levels for an extended period, and the CMF may start to rise, which could fuel a continued rally ?
@NorthstarCharts@McClellanOsc Totally agree! Cluttering a chart with text boxes or excessive elements just distracts from the data itself.
Looking at it leads to confusion rather than insight.
@NorthstarCharts@KinesisMonetary You can keep tweaking this arc to fit whatever happens. Extend the curve or turn it into a cup and handle. The prediction can be few years away.
What goes up the most if this failed move in $DXY spurs a fast move to, and possibly, through the lower bounds of this range?
With the dollar getting slammed back into the box this is the only question investors should be asking themselves right now.
I have some ideas ๐
https://t.co/JmgylJt67r
@NorthstarCharts@KinesisMonetary If gold were priced at $15,000 , the total market value would be $100 trillion, the total market cap of global stock market is approximately $115 trillion. How would that possible?