तत् त्वम् पूषन् अपावृणु

[तत् त्वम् पूषन् अपावृणु @geoObserver71]

@dxuunge Drama name?

[复利CLOS @fuliclos]

深圳越繁华，中国经济为什么可能越危险？

英国学者詹姆斯·克拉布特里最近在中国访问了两周。

在深圳，他被震撼了。

新能源汽车、人工智能、无人机、机器人，产业链完整，技术进步惊人。中国科技生态的实力，甚至超出了他原来的想象。

但离开深圳，来到北京，与经济学家迈克尔·佩蒂斯交流之后，他看到的却是另一幅图景：

房地产持续低迷，投资下降，消费疲软，民营企业不愿投资，就业压力巨大，地方财政收入承压。

他在11月1日发表的文章《China: through the K-Hole》中，提出了一个判断：

中国的K型经济分化正在扩大。

K的上半部分，是科技产业、先进制造和出口竞争力不断向上。

K的下半部分，是房地产、传统行业、普通就业和居民消费不断承压。

他还提到一个很刺眼的现象：北京街头，似乎人人都在送快递、跑外卖。

官方城镇调查失业率在5%左右，但经济学家李稻葵曾估算广义失业率达到10.2%。克拉布特里还引用了中国约5300万人从事外卖和网约车、约2亿人从事广义零工经济的数据。

他甚至听说，北大毕业生中可能有一半面临就业困难。

克拉布特里的结论是：中国可能正在走向日本式的长期停滞。佩蒂斯认为，十年以上的低增长、停滞和缓慢修复，甚至可能已经是乐观情景。

我认为，他说的客气了。现实比这个更加悲观。

中国的困难，可能比当年日本失去的三十年更加复杂。

为什么？

第一，中国没有日本当年的家底。

日本房地产泡沫破裂时，已经是高度发达的富裕国家，居民收入、社会保障、医疗体系和企业全球竞争力都处于较高水平。

中国却是在尚未完成富裕化的过程中，提前遭遇房地产泡沫、人口老龄化、地方债务和消费不足。

日本是富裕之后遭遇停滞，中国可能是在尚未富裕时就进入长期调整。

两者的社会承受力完全不同。

第二，中国房地产问题更加严重

房价下跌，居民财富缩水，消费意愿下降；消费下降，企业收入减少，投资更加谨慎；土地卖不出去，地方财政承压；地方财政紧张，又影响公共服务、政府采购和企业经营。

这不是一个行业的衰退，而是一整套经济循环同时失去动力。

第三，中国缺少真正有效的居民财富再分配和社会保障缓冲。

经济下行时，居民最需要的是安全感。

医疗、养老、失业保障、教育支出，每一项都影响消费决策。

当人们担心未来收入、养老和医疗，就会选择储蓄，而不是消费。

第四，最危险的是旧增长模式的利益结构。

佩蒂斯提到了经济学家赫希曼的理论：一个曾经成功的增长模式，会培养出依赖这个模式的利益群体，而这些群体可能反过来阻碍改革。

过去依靠土地、房地产、地方投资和信贷扩张的体系，形成了庞大的利益结构。

现在真正需要的是把更多资源转向居民、民营企业和消费市场。

但这意味着重新分配资源，也意味着改变旧有利益格局。
这个看不到改变的迹象。

第五，科技繁荣掩盖经济结构的失衡。

新能源汽车可以不断降价，机器人可以不断升级，AI可以创造新的产业。

但科技进步不自动等于居民收入增长。

企业可以拥有世界一流的生产能力，却找不到足够有支付能力的消费者。

产能越来越强，购买力却没有同步增长，最后就会变成更激烈的价格战。

克拉布特里提到，中国上百个新能源汽车品牌陷入激烈竞争，很多企业利润微薄，甚至无法盈利。

这就是一个典型例子：产业竞争力强，不等于整个产业生态健康。

第六，出口也不是无限的避风港。

国内需求不足，企业就向海外寻找市场。

中国制造的竞争力越强，出口越多，贸易摩擦和保护主义的压力也可能越大。

如果国内消费不能接住产能，海外市场又不断增加壁垒，那么所谓的出口增长，就很难独自承担整个经济转型的任务。

我甚至认为，中国面临的长期调整风险可能比日本更大。

不是说中国没有技术优势，也不是说中国必然崩溃。

而是中国同时面对几个日本当年没有以同样方式、同样程度面对的难题：尚未完成富裕化、人口老龄化更早到来、居民保障不足、地方债务沉重，以及经济资源重新分配的制度阻力。

日本失去三十年，仍然保有相当厚实的居民财富和社会保障基础。

中国如果陷入类似的长期停滞，普通人的感受可能会更加沉重。

最后，我想说一个容易被忽视的事实：

一个国家最值得警惕的，不是没有高科技，而是高科技越来越先进，普通人的生活却没有同步变好。

深圳的机器人不会替居民偿还房贷，AI不会自动解决年轻人的就业，新能源汽车出口增长也不会自动修复地方财政。

经济不是几个冠军产业的成绩单。

它是企业、居民、政府、就业、消费和投资共同构成的生态。

如果上半部分越来越繁荣，下半部分却不断萎缩，那么K的两条线只会越拉越开。

深圳的繁华当然值得骄傲。

但如果我们只看见深圳的繁华，而看不见街头送快递的人，看不见买不起房、找不到工作、不敢消费的普通家庭，那就可能把产业的胜利误认为整个经济的胜利。

科技可以创造未来，但只有健康的经济生态，才能让普通人分享到未来。

[DRAGON OBSERVER @Dragonobserwer]

Do you know why Chinese cope so hard even when they know the historical facts? Whether directly or indirectly Indian influence, particularly Hanuman's influence is literally the origin of Sun Wukong in Journey to the West.

Why do they still refuse to accept this you may ask?

Because of the superiority complex, they have such a hard time accepting that the people they look down upon, whom they refer to as "low-life", "low-born humans" and "third-brother", could have contributed something so magnificent to their own culture and literary history.

How can Indians have given them something like this? This is precisely what they struggle to accept.

Even when Hanuman's influence has been discussed in Chinese scholarship itself, Chinese nationalists still refuse to acknowledge it today. They would rather deny the connection than accept that an Indian religious and literary tradition could have influenced one of their most famous literary characters.

The same attitude can be seen in discussions about Buddhism. Even after centuries of historical evidence, Chinese nationalists have difficulty acknowledging that Buddhism originated in India and belongs to the broader family of Indian Dharmic religions, alongside Hinduism, Jainism and Sikhism.

You will rarely encounter this particular kind of denial across other parts of Asia in the same way. Ask Japanese, Korean or other Asian people about Buddhism's origins, and the historical answer is straightforward. Yet Han nationalists, seem determined to turn even this into an argument about cultural superiority.

That's why they are coping so hard in the comments.

And when you point out this obvious fact, they will simply say, "India isn't even a Buddhist country today, so why claim it?"
The fact is that Indians don't even consider Buddhism a separate tradition from the broader Dharmic family. For them, it belongs to the wider family of Dharmic traditions. That's it.

And even if we take their argument, for instance, should Indians not even claim their own historical and civilizational influence? Just because you Chinese have such a superiority complex today and can't accept the fact that it was Indians who brought you this culture that you're so proud of, should Indians abandon their own history and civilizational heritage just because of your superiority complex?

They just want to somehow separate these historical facts from their Indian origins and completely absorb them into their own culture. That's why they are coping so hard and just can't accept the obvious reality.

[Dr. Brahma Chellaney @Chellaney]

Pakistan Acts More Loyal to China Than China Does to Itself

The most hilarious story recently was Pakistan’s sudden, brief ban, in the name of the “One China” policy, on Taiwanese airlines using its airspace — and its equally swift U-turn just a day later after Beijing expressed surprise at the Pakistani action. China itself allows Taiwanese carriers such as China Airlines and EVA Air to use its airspace because global civil aviation, routing efficiency and reciprocal overflight rights operate under international technical frameworks.

The Pakistani move immediately exposed a glaring contradiction: Islamabad was attempting to be more uncompromising on Beijing’s behalf than Beijing itself.

Pakistan relies so heavily on Chinese strategic assistance and diplomatic protection against international isolation and pressure that it often feels compelled to outdo everyone else in demonstrating its loyalty to Beijing.

While China approaches its partnership with Pakistan through a calculated lens of statecraft and grand strategy, including balancing India, Pakistan views the alliance through an existential lens, elevating it to an “all-weather strategic partnership” or “iron brotherhood.” Indeed, Pakistan routinely resorts to panegyrics, traditionally describing its ties with China as “higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans.”

The ban on Taiwanese carriers was a case of anticipatory obedience. Pakistani authorities were apparently seeking to score geopolitical brownie points in Beijing by demonstrating hyper-vigilance over China's core sensitivities.

[Gajendra Singh Shekhawat @gssjodhpur]

A moment of immense pride for India!

The inclusion of Rājataraṅgiṇī, Mahābhārata and Arthaśāstra in @UNESCO Memory of the World Asia-Pacific Regional Register is a landmark recognition of India’s extraordinary documentary and civilisational heritage.

These timeless works embody our rich traditions of historical inquiry, philosophical thought and statecraft, whose wisdom continues to inspire humanity.

Under the visionary leadership of Hon’ble PM Shri @narendramodi Ji, India’s civilisational legacy is receiving unprecedented global recognition and its rightful place on the world stage.

[तत् त्वम् पूषन् अपावृणु @geoObserver71]

@IndianTechGuide Why are the commies of Kerala using the capitalistic goods like new trains? Apprarently beef parota is tbe only thing they are proud of. They keep humiliating other Indians over it again and again.

[तत् त्वम् पूषन् अपावृणु @geoObserver71]

@krienzh_ Drama name?

[Narendra Modi @narendramodi]

Do you feel India should depend on other countries for processing the critical minerals that power our future?


I certainly don’t!

Lithium, nickel, cobalt…these are essential for EVs, batteries, electronics and defence. Yet, we remain heavily dependent on imports of refined materials.

To address this, the Cabinet has approved a scheme to change this.

Key highlights:

New critical mineral processing plants.

Capital subsidy to boost investment.

Greater domestic value addition.

Stronger supply chains.

The principle is clear...India must have capabilities to build technologies of the future!

https://t.co/deencvjivt

[Shiv Aroor @ShivAroor]

1️⃣ Trump’s midterm setback offers India some breathing room. After tariffs, threats and insults, a check on his power will be very welcome. A reminder of what India faced in his second term:

2️⃣ THE TARIFF HAMMER: Imposed tariffs reaching 50% on many Indian goods, including a 25% Russian-oil penalty. Indian exporters became collateral damage in his pressure campaign. Rates were subsequently reduced.

3️⃣ THE ECONOMIC INSULT: Dismissed India & Russia as a “dead economies”. Said they could take those economies down together “for all I care”. (You remember who picked that up 🙄)

4️⃣ THE CEASEFIRE CREDIT GRAB: Repeatedly claimed he stopped Op Sindoor. India’s position: Pakistan practically begged for the ceasefire, there was no US mediation or trade bargain. He kept claiming credit anyway.

5️⃣ THE TRADE BLACKMAIL CLAIM: Boasted that threatening BOTH India and Pakistan with 250% tariffs stopped the fighting. His account reduced India’s military decisions to obedience to Washington. India rejected it.

6️⃣ THE KASHMIR INTERVENTION: Offered to help settle Kashmir after a supposed “thousand years”. Injected himself into an issue on which India has consistently rejected third-party mediation.

7️⃣ THE PAKISTAN EMBRACE: Hosted Asim Munir for an unprecedented White House lunch weeks after the conflict. India privately protested that Washington was sending the wrong signal to Pakistan’s military.

8️⃣ THE OIL TAUNT: Announced plans to develop Pakistan’s oil reserves, then suggested Pakistan might someday sell oil to India. This came hours after announcing tariffs on India.

9️⃣ THE MANUFACTURING PRESSURE: Told Tim Cook he did not want Apple expanding production in India for the US market. Then threatened at least 25% tariffs on iPhones manufactured abroad. A direct challenge to India’s manufacturing ambitions.

🔟 THE VISA BLOW: Imposed a $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions, hitting a route dominated by Indian professionals. The rollout caused panic before clarification that existing visas and renewals were excluded.

1️⃣1️⃣ THE SHACKLED DEPORTEES: His administration returned Indians on a military aircraft, with deportees in handcuffs and leg restraints. Trump made the White House boast about it with music-laced videos.

1️⃣2️⃣ THE PERSONAL CONDESCENSION: Threatened fresh tariffs over Russian oil, saying Modi knew he was unhappy and “it was important to make me happy”. India’s energy security treated as a presidential favour.

1️⃣3️⃣ THE “HELLHOLE” REPOST: Amplified material describing India as a “hellhole”.

India owes no American party its loyalty. The Democrats have low-key been as bad or worse in the past. But after his record of ‘big guy’ diplomacy, Trump cut to size will be welcomed by India.

[🇮🇳 DK Sardana 🇮🇳 @dksardana]

A fact!

[तत् त्वम् पूषन् अपावृणु @geoObserver71]

@1ov3wan Drama name?

[तत् त्वम् पूषन् अपावृणु @geoObserver71]

@haiderAliPataud @nypost How can someone be that retarded?

[Narendra Modi @narendramodi]

A ZERO that speaks volumes.

@crpfindia

[MURAT BEY ( BORSA ) @MuratBeyBorsaa]

Japonya bugün dünyanın süper gücü olabilirdi. 1985'te yapılan bir hata her şeyi değiştirdi.

1985'te Japonya dünyanın fabrikasıydı.

Amerikan şirketleri Japon rakipleriyle rekabet edemiyordu.

Otomotivde, elektronikte, yarı iletkenlerde. Japonya her sektörde öndeydi.

Dünyanın en büyük 10 bankasının 7'si Japondu.

Japon şirketler Amerikan gayrimenkullerini satın alıyordu. Rockefeller Center bir Japon şirkete satıldı. Amerika'da Japonya karşıtlığı doruk noktasına ulaşmıştı.

Tıpkı bugünkü Çin gibi.

Bugün Çin'in yaptığı her şeyi o dönem Japonya yapıyordu. Daha ucuz üretiyordu. Amerikan pazarını ele geçiriyordu.

Sonra bir anlaşma imzalandı. Japonya'nın parası güçlendirildi. İhracat bir anda çöktü.

Buraya kadar çoğu kişi biliyor. Ama asıl hikaye bundan sonra başlıyor.

Japonya üretmeyi bıraktı.

Merkez bankası ekonomiyi kurtarmak için faizi sıfıra indirdi. Japonya'nın gücü üretimden geliyordu ama artık üretim kâr etmiyordu.

Para güçlü, ürünler pahalı, müşteri azalmış.

Şirketler üretmek yerine finansal mühendisliğe yöneldi. Gayrimenkule yatırdı. Borsaya yatırdı. Spekülatif varlıklara yatırdı.

Fabrikalar boşalmaya başladı. Üretim daha ucuz ülkelere taşındı.

Normalde kâr edemeyen bir şirket batar. Batması gereken şirket batarsa kaynaklar yeni şirketlere gider. Ekonomi yenilenir.

Japonya bunu yapmadı.

Batması gereken şirketleri ayakta tuttu. Bankalar kötü kredileri silmek yerine sakladı. Kâr etmeyen şirketlere kredi vermeye devam etti.

Bu şirketler üretmiyordu. Büyümüyordu. Ama batmıyordu.

Ekonominin kaynakları yeni şirketlere gitmek yerine bu ölü şirketleri yaşatmak için harcandı.

Bu seçim onlarca yıla mal oldu.

Japonya artık üreten ülke değildi. Borç veren ülkeye dönüşmüştü.

Dünya Japonya'dan sıfır faizle yen borç aldı. Bu parayı ABD tahvillerine, Amerikan borsasına, başka ülkelerin varlıklarına yatırdı. Dünyanın en büyük fonları bunu yaptı.

Japonya'nın parası Japonya'da kalmadı. Başkalarını zenginleştirdi.

Üreten ülke zenginleşir. Para içeride kalır, istihdam yaratır, teknoloji geliştirir.

Borç veren ülkenin parası dışarı akar, başkalarını zenginleştirir.

1985'te dünyanın 2. büyük ekonomisiydi. 2024'te Almanya geçti, 4.'ye düştü. 2026'da Hindistan geçiyor, 5.'ye düşüyor.

Japonya'nın potansiyeli devasa idi. Üretim gücü, teknolojisi, disiplini vardı. Bu potansiyelle bugün dünyanın süper gücü olabilirdi.

Ama üretmeyi bıraktı.

Üretmeyi bırakan ekonomi ayakta kalamaz.

Japonya bunun en büyük kanıtı.

Sen bu konu hakkında ne düşünüyorsun?

[तत् त्वम् पूषन् अपावृणु @geoObserver71]

@blahhh_01 @IndianGuyEE @himantabiswa @narendramodi @AshwiniVaishnaw USA can do whatever it wants, just because of its economic and military dominance. We too would be able to such acts in future. We just have to gain comprehensive national power uninterruptedly for two decades. Then nobody would dare to do anything against India.

[तत् त्वम् पूषन् अपावृणु @geoObserver71]

@barandbench The keyword is 'Virtuous'. That would mean that she has cheated on him, i.e. did not had extra-marital affair with any other guy. And certainly not bear a child of another man by copulation. Then why does require the maintenance of such a child that is not even his own?

[तत् त्वम् पूषन् अपावृणु @geoObserver71]

@barandbench The senior advocate Menaka is so incompetent. Does she not know that the highest constitutional law officer is Attorney General of India and not Solicitor General of India? In fact, Solicitor General is not even a Constitutional post.

[ANI @ANI]

#WATCH | Delhi | At the Young Leaders Discourse Forum at Kirori Mal College, Union Minister Piyush Goyal says, "...Regarding tunnel boring machines. India’s approach is different. Many other countries might bow down and enter into agreements... We do not wish to spoil relations with anyone; even today, our relations with China remain good... But if they refuse to provide tunnel boring machines, we will develop them ourselves in India... When they restricted rare earths, we did not go around begging. We held a meeting with various startups in this field. Can we not build our own motors without relying on rare earths? After all, rare earths didn't always exist... Some startups in India have begun innovating and have started producing motors without rare earths that offer equal quality and efficiency..."

[तत् त्वम् पूषन् अपावृणु @geoObserver71]

@TheERDoctor

[Hirotaka @tabi_gari]

インドの発展もかなりのもので、ムンバイだけでなく、プネーにも地下鉄が走っている🚇
印象的だったのは、その綺麗さと、静けさ。東京の地下鉄よりも、はるかに清潔で、雑音もない。
もしかしたら、地下鉄に乗るのは、ある程度限られた人たちなのかもしれない。地上の喧騒と、地下の静寂、そのコントラストにインドを感じる。